Scott Lee Nooner

Axial Seamount is a submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge with enhanced magma supply from the Cobb hotspot. We compare several deformation model configurations to explore how the spatial component of Axial's deformation time series relates to magma reservoir geometry imaged by multi‐channel seismic (MCS) surveys. To constrain the models, we use vertical displacements from seafloor pressure sensors and repeat autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) bathymetric surveys between 2016 and 2020. We show that implementing the MCS‐derived 3D main magma reservoir (MMR) geometry with uniform pressure in a finite element model with uniform elastic host rock properties poorly fits the geodetic data. To test the hypothesis that there is compartmentalization within the MMR that results in heterogeneous pressure distribution, we compare analytical models using various horizontal sill configurations constrained by the MMR geometry. Using distributed pressure sources significantly improves the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the inflation data and the models by an order of magnitude. The RMSE between the AUV data and the models is not improved as much, likely due to larger uncertainty of the AUV data. The models estimate the volume change for the 2016–2020 inter‐eruptive inflation period to be between 0.054 and 0.060 km³ and suggest that the MMR is compartmentalized, with most magma accumulating in sill‐like bodies embedded in crystal mush along the western‐central edge of the MMR. The results reveal the complexity of Axial's plumbing system and demonstrate the utility of integrating geodetic data and seismic imagery to gain insights into magma storage at active volcanoes.

Axial Seamount is a submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge with enhanced magma supply from the Cobb Hotspot. Here we compare several deformation model configurations to explore how the spatial component of Axial’s deformation time series relates to magma reservoir geometry imaged by multi-channel seismic (MCS) surveys. To constrain the models, we use vertical displacements from pressure sensors at seafloor benchmarks and repeat autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) bathymetric surveys covering 2016-2020. We show that implementing the MCS-derived 3D main magma reservoir (MMR) geometry with uniform pressure in a finite element model poorly fits the geodetic data. To test the hypothesis that there is compartmentalization within the MMR that results in heterogeneous pressure distribution, we compare analytical models using various horizontal sill configurations constrained by the MMR geometry. Using distributed pressure sources significantly improved the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the inflation data and the models by an order of magnitude. The RMSE between the AUV data and the models was not improved as much, likely due to the relatively larger uncertainty of the AUV data. The models estimate the volume change for the 2016-2020 inter-eruptive inflation period to be between 0.054-0.060 km3 and suggest that the MMR is compartmentalized, with most magma accumulating in sill-like bodies embedded in crystal mush along the western-central edge of the MMR. The results reveal the complexity of Axial’s plumbing system and demonstrate the utility of integrating geodetic data and seismic imagery to gain deeper insights into magma storage at active volcanoes.

The 22 July 2020 Mw7.8 Simeonof earthquake was a deep megathrust event that ruptured along the Shumagin segment of the Alaska‐Aleutian subduction zone. This earthquake occurred ∼250 km from a seafloor geodetic GNSS‐Acoustic site IVB1, where we observed a velocity of 3.78 ± 1.15 cm/yr with the down‐going slab prior to the earthquake followed by 0.6 ± 0.7 eastward and −15.5 ± 0.8 cm northward coseismic offset. We computed a slip model of the coseismic rupture using the static offset at IVB1 alongside regional continuous GNSS and strong motion stations. The small static horizontal offset at the site precludes significantly shallower rupture than previously inferred from terrestrial observations, confirming that the Simeonof earthquake was a deep megathrust earthquake. The observed site velocity implies partial locking prior to the earthquake, implying significant shallow strain accumulation such that the small coseismic offset is unlikely to have relieved all of the accumulated strain since the last coseismic rupture.

The shallower portions of subduction zone megathrust faults host Earth’s most hazardous tsunamigenic earthquakes, yet understanding how and when they slip remains elusive because of challenges making seafloor observations. We performed Global Navigation Satellite System Acoustic seafloor geodetic surveys before and ~2.5 months after the 29 July 2021 M _w (moment magnitude) 8.2 Chignik, Alaska, earthquake and determine ~1.4 meters cumulative co- and post-seismic horizontal displacement ~60 kilometers from the megathrust front. Only for the 2011 M _w 9 Tohoku event have closer subduction zone earthquake displacements been observed. We estimate ~2 to 3 meters of megathrust afterslip shallower than 20 kilometers, a portion of the megathrust on which both inter- and co-seismic slip likely had occurred previously. Our analysis demonstrates that by 2.5 months, shallower and deeper moment had effectively equilibrated on the megathrust, suggesting that its tsunamigenic potential remains no more elevated than before the earthquake.

The Indo‐Burma subduction zone is a highly oblique subduction system where the Indian plate is converging with the Eurasian plate. How strain is partitioned between the Indo‐Burma interface and upper plate Kabaw Fault, and whether the megathrust is a locked and active zone of convergence that can generate great earthquakes are ongoing debates. Here, we use data from a total of 68 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations, including newly installed stations across the Kabaw Fault and compute an updated horizontal and vertical GNSS velocity field. We correct vertical rates for fluctuating seasonal signals by accounting for the elastic response of monsoon water on the crust. We model the geodetic data by inverting for 11,000 planar and non‐planar megathrust fault geometries and two geologically viable structural interpretations of the Kabaw Fault that we construct from field geological data, considering a basin‐scale wedge‐fault and a crustal‐scale reverse fault. We demonstrate that the Indo‐Burma megathrust is locked, converging at a rate of mm/yr, and capable of hosting >8.2 M_w megathrust events. We also show that the Kabaw Fault is locked and accommodating strike‐slip motion at a rate of mm/yr and converging at a rate of mm/yr. Our interpretation of the geological, geophysical, and geodetic datasets indicates the Kabaw Fault is a crustal‐scale structure that actively absorbs a portion of the convergence previously ascribed to the Indo‐Burma megathrust. This reveals a previously unrecognized seismic hazard associated with the Kabaw Fault and slightly reduces the estimated hazard posed by megathrust earthquakes in the region.

Axial Seamount in the northeast Pacific erupted in 2015, 2011, and 1998. Although monitored by the Regional Cabled Array of the Ocean Observatory Initiative, few magnetic surveys have been conducted over the region. This study uses high‐resolution magnetic data over the seamount collected by autonomous underwater vehicle Sentry during three years (2015, 2017, and 2020). The goal is to investigate whether there are temporal changes in the near‐surface magnetic field observable over the time scale of one volcanic cycle. We compare magnetic maps from repeated tracklines from each year. We find maps of the yearly difference in magnetization show coherent patterns that are not random. The central region of the caldera has become more magnetic during recent years, suggesting cooling of the surficial lava flows since 2015. Sentry data are more sensitive to shallow crustal structure compared to sea surface data which show longer wavelength anomalies extending deeper into the crust.

Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply. Axial erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and is monitored by a cabled network of instruments including bottom pressure recorders and seismometers. Since its last eruption, Axial has re‐inflated to 85%–90% of its pre‐eruption level. During that time, we have identified eight discrete, short‐term deflation events of 1–4 cm over 1–3 weeks that occurred quasi‐periodically, about every 4–6 months between August 2016 and May 2019. During each short‐term deflation event, the rate of earthquakes dropped abruptly to low levels, and then did not return to higher levels until reinflation had resumed and returned near its previous high. The long‐term geodetic monitoring record suggests that the rate of magma supply has varied by an order of magnitude over decadal time scales. There was a surge in magma supply between 2011 and 2015, causing those two eruptions to be closely spaced in time and the supply rate has been waning since then. This waning supply has implications for eruption forecasting and the next eruption at Axial still appears to be 4–9 years away. We also show that the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift has increased exponentially with total uplift since the 2015 eruption, a pattern consistent with a mechanical model of cumulative rock damage leading to bulk failure during magma accumulation between eruptions.

Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ~1500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply. Axial erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and is monitored by a cabled network of instruments including bottom pressure recorders and seismometers. Since its last eruption, Axial has re-inflated to 85-90% of its pre-eruption level. During that time, we have identified eight discrete, short-term deflation events of 1-4 cm over 1-3 weeks that occurred quasi-periodically, about every 4-6 months between August 2016 and May 2019. During each short-term deflation event, the rate of earthquakes dropped abruptly to low levels, and then did not return to higher levels until reinflation had resumed and returned near its previous high. The long-term geodetic monitoring record suggests that the rate of magma supply has varied by an order of magnitude over decadal time scales. There was a surge in magma supply between 2011-2015, causing those two eruptions to be closely spaced in time and the supply rate has been waning since then. This waning supply has implications for eruption forecasting and the next eruption at Axial still appears to be 4-9 years away. We also show that the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift has increased exponentially with total uplift since the 2015 eruption, a pattern consistent with a mechanical model of cumulative rock damage leading to bulk failure during magma accumulation between eruptions.

Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ~1500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply. Axial erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and is monitored by a network of instruments including bottom pressure recorders and seismometers. Since its last eruption, Axial has re-inflated to 85-90% of its pre-eruption level. During that time, we have identified eight discrete, short-term deflation events of 1-3 cm over 1-3 weeks that occurred quasi-periodically, about every 4-6 months between August 2016 and May 2019. During each short-term deflation event, the rate of earthquakes dropped abruptly to low levels, and then did not return to higher levels until reinflation had resumed and returned to its previous high. The long-term geodetic monitoring record suggests that the rate of magma supply has varied by an order of magnitude over decadal time scales. There was a surge in magma supply between 2011-2015, causing those two eruptions to be closely spaced in time and the supply rate has been waning since then. This waning supply has implications for eruption forecasting and the next eruption at Axial still appears to be 5-10 years away. We also show that the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift has increased exponentially with total uplift since the 2015 eruption, a pattern consistent with a physical model that both are caused by increasing differential stress in the shallow crust during magma accumulation.