Marcello Gallucci

Developmental psychology relies on statistical evidence to draw conclusions about change, mechanisms, and context, but the validity of those conclusions depends on whether researchers interpret that evidence correctly. This article examines whether psychological researchers recognize which conclusions are justified in common analytic scenarios. Study 1 replicated Zuckerman et al.’s survey of five classic statistical issues using a contemporary sample of authors from leading psychology journals. Researchers showed similar accuracy to the original sample on interpreting interaction effects, multivariate analyses of variance, and effect-size comparisons, but lower accuracy on questions involving reliability and sample size. Study 2 extended this approach to issues relevant to contemporary developmental research. Researchers showed strong understanding that opportunistic biases can affect effect-size estimates, mixed accuracy in evaluating the use of covariates in longitudinal mediation analyses, and lower accuracy when interpreting overlapping confidence intervals, separating within- and between-cluster effects, and using multiple imputation for missing outcomes. These findings suggest that advances in developmental methods need to be accompanied by stronger attention to the inferential logic linking statistical results to developmental theory.

A body of evidence suggests that the pupil dilates in response to expectancy violations and unpredictability, yet evidence from complex and ecologically richer settings remains limited. In this study, we tested whether pupillometry could capture sensitivity to unexpectedness in an immersive virtual reality (VR) environment combining experimental control with greater contextual complexity. Forty-nine participants completed a coin-collection task across two repetitions of the same VR scenario. During the second repetition, participants in the control condition re-entered an unchanged environment, whereas participants in the experimental condition saw the scenario turning upside-down during navigation. Pupil size was recorded through an eye tracker embedded in a head-mounted display and analyzed across two 6-s epochs using linear mixed-effects models and generalized additive mixed models. No difference between conditions was detected before the experimental group had experienced the reversal of the scenario. Yet, pupil trajectories diverged significantly over time after the scenario flipped in the experimental condition, although mean pupil size did not differ between conditions. These results suggest that unexpected events in immersive VR may affect the temporal dynamics of pupil responses, even in the absence of differences in mean dilation. Overall, these findings provide preliminary support for the use of pupillometry in VR-based research on expectancy violation and exploratory cognitive states, while also highlighting the need for further studies to refine and extend this methodological approach.

Financial well-being is a desirable state as it benefits individuals, families, organizations, and society, and these benefits reach beyond the financial domain. We assessed financial well-being as two components (current financial stress and expected future financial security) and used data from a representative sample of adults in the United Kingdom (n = 411). Our study provides novel insights based on preregistered hypotheses, method, and analysis plan on the Open Science Framework. We hypothesized that both executive functioning and financial self-efficacy are positively related to financial well-being via positive financial behaviors. We also hypothesized that executive functioning moderated the indirect relation of financial self-efficacy with financial well-being, and that financial self-efficacy moderated the indirect relation of executive functioning with financial well-being. As predicted, results showed that financial self-efficacy was strongly positively related to financial well-being via positive financial behaviors. Our results did not show that executive functioning was related to financial well-being via positive financial behaviors, nor that executive functioning or financial self-efficacy operated as moderators. This study provides possible strategies for financial practitioners and service providers, among others, to help individuals and families better their financial behaviors and their financial well-being.

Background: Patients suffering from stroke in the acute/post-acute phases often present with depressive mood — which negatively impacts on patients’ prognosis. However, psychometric evaluation of mood in acute stroke patients may be challenging due to cognitive deficits. Tools investigating emotional states via a vertical analogue line may overcome language/visuo-spatial disorders. This study thus aimed at (a) investigating the clinical usability of a Visual Analogue Mood Scale (VAMS) in acute stroke patients and (b) investigating the interplay between mood and cognition in this population. Methods: Forty-one acute stroke patients were compared to 41 age-, education- and sex-matched healthy participants (HPs) on the VAMS and on cognitive measures (mental performance in acute stroke, MEPS). A control line bisection (LB) task was administered to control for potential visuo-spatial deficits in patients. Results: Patients reported higher depression levels than HPs (lower VAMS scores); this between-group difference stayed significant when covarying for LB scores. MEPS scores discriminated patients from HPs; among cognitive measures, only the Clock drawing test (CDT) was positively associated with VAMS scores. Lesion side did not affect patients’ mood state; however, disease duration was inversely related to VAMS scores. Discussion: The VAMS proved to be a suitable tool for assessing mood in acute stroke patients, as being independent from post-stroke cognitive sequelae. The CDT might represent an adequate measure of depression-induced, post-stroke cognitive efficiency decrease. Mood disorders might occur and thus should be adequately addressed also in post-acute phases — likely due to longer hospitalization times and regression of anosognosic features.

Background: Working memory (WM) abilities are frequently impaired in neurological disorders affecting fronto-parietal cortical/sub-cortical structures. WM deficits negatively influence interventional outcomes and everyday functioning. This study thus aimed at the following: (a) developing and standardizing an ecologically valid task for WM assessment ( Ice Cream Test, ICT); (b) validating and norming a novel WM test (Digit Ordering Test, DOT), as well as providing updated norms for digit span (DS) tasks, in an Italian population sample; (c) introducing a novel scoring procedure for measuring WM. Methods: One-hundred and sixty-eight Italian healthy participants—73 male, 95 females; age: 48.4 ± 19.1 (18–86); education: 12.1 ± 4.8 (4–21)—underwent a thorough WM assessment—DOT, ICT, and both forward and backward DS tasks (FDS, BDS). The ICT requires participants to act as waiters who have to keep track of customers’ orders. For each task, WM and total (T) outcomes were computed, i.e., the number of elements in the longest sequence and that of recalled sequences, respectively. Norms were derived via the equivalent score (ES) method. Results: DS ratios (DSRs) were computed for both WM/S and T outcomes on raw DS measures (BDS divided by FDS). Age and education significantly predicted all WM tasks; sex affected FDS and DSR-T scores (males > females). WM measures were highly internally related. Discussion: The present work provides Italian practitioners with a normatively updated, multi-component, adaptive battery for WM assessment (WoMAB) as well as with novel outcomes which capture different WM facets—WM capacity and attentive monitoring abilities.

Objectives To develop predictive criteria for COVID-19-associated cytokine storm (CS), a severe hyperimmune response that results in organ damage in some patients infected with COVID-19. We hypothesised that criteria for inflammation and cell death would predict this type of CS. Methods We analysed 513 hospitalised patients who were positive for COVID-19 reverse transcriptase PCR and for ground-glass opacity by chest high-resolution CT. To achieve an early diagnosis, we analysed the laboratory results of the first 7 days of hospitalisation. We implemented logistic regression and principal component analysis to determine the predictive criteria. We used a ‘genetic algorithm’ to derive the cut-offs for each laboratory result. We validated the criteria with a second cohort of 258 patients. Results We found that the criteria for macrophage activation syndrome, haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis and the HScore did not identify the COVID-19 cytokine storm (COVID-CS). We developed new predictive criteria, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.85 and 0.80, respectively, comprising three clusters of laboratory results that involve (1) inflammation, (2) cell death and tissue damage, and (3) prerenal electrolyte imbalance. The criteria identified patients with longer hospitalisation and increased mortality. These results highlight the relevance of hyperinflammation and tissue damage in the COVID-CS. Conclusions We propose new early predictive criteria to identify the CS occurring in patients with COVID-19. The criteria can be readily used in clinical practice to determine the need for an early therapeutic regimen, block the hyperimmune response and possibly decrease mortality.

In this paper we describe and validate a new coordinate-based method for meta-analysis of neuroimaging data based on an optimized hierarchical clustering algorithm: CluB (Clustering the Brain). The CluB toolbox permits both to extract a set of spatially coherent clusters of activations from a database of stereotactic coordinates, and to explore each single cluster of activation for its composition according to the cognitive dimensions of interest. This last step, called “cluster composition analysis,” permits to explore neurocognitive effects by adopting a factorial-design logic and by testing the working hypotheses using either asymptotic tests, or exact tests either in a classic inference, or in a Bayesian-like context. To perform our validation study, we selected the fMRI data from 24 normal controls involved in a reading task. We run a standard random-effects second level group analysis to obtain a “Gold Standard” of reference. In a second step, the subject-specific reading effects (i.e., the linear t-contrast “reading > baseline”) were extracted to obtain a coordinates-based database that was used to run a meta-analysis using both CluB and the popular Activation Likelihood Estimation method implemented in the software GingerALE. The results of the two meta-analyses were compared against the “Gold Standard” to compute performance measures, i.e., sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The GingerALE method obtained a high level of accuracy (0.967) associated with a high sensitivity (0.728) and specificity (0.971). The CluB method obtained a similar level of accuracy (0.956) and specificity (0.969), notwithstanding a lower level of sensitivity (0.14) due to the lack of prior Gaussian transformation of the data. Finally, the two methods obtained a good-level of concordance (AC₁ = 0.93). These results suggested that methods based on hierarchical clustering (and post-hoc statistics) and methods requiring prior Gaussian transformation of the data can be used as complementary tools, with the GingerALE method being optimal for neurofunctional mapping of pooled data according to simpler designs, and the CluB method being preferable to test more specific, and localized, neurocognitive hypotheses according to factorial designs.

In this study, we explored vagally-mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV) responses, a psychophysiological index of cognitive self-regulatory control, to map the dynamics associated with empathic responses for pain towards an out-group member. Accordingly, Caucasian participants were asked to judge the experience of African and Caucasian actors touched with either a neutral or a harmful stimulus. Results showed that (1) explicit judgment of pain intensity in African actors yielded higher rating score and (2) took longer time compared to Caucasian actors, (3) these behavioural outcomes were associated with a significant increment of RMSSD, Log-HF-HRV and HF-HRV n.u., (4) resting HF-HRV n.u. predicted the participants’ lag-time to judge painful stimulations delivered to African actors. Interestingly, these dynamics were associated with a measure of implicit racial attitudes and were, in part, abolished when participants performed a concurrent task during videos presentation. Taken together our results support the idea that a cognitive effort is needed to self-regulate our implicit attitude as predicted by the ‘Contrasting Forces Model’.