Thomas Trappenberg

Machine learning applications require fast and reliable per-sample uncertainty estimation. A common approach is to use predictive distributions from Bayesian or approximation methods and additively decompose uncertainty into aleatoric (i.e., data-related) and epistemic (i.e., model-related) components. However, additive decomposition has recently been questioned, with evidence that it breaks down when using finite-ensemble sampling and/or mismatched predictive distributions. This paper introduces Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE), an intuitive, differentiable framework that injects epistemic sensitivity via a signal-to-noise gate computed from ensemble statistics. VGE provides: (i) a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score that couples decision margins with ensemble predictive variance; and (ii) a Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer that generalizes the variance-gated uncertainty mechanism to training via per-class, learnable normalization of ensemble member probabilities. We derive closed-form vector-Jacobian products enabling end-to-end training through ensemble sample mean and variance. VGE matches or exceeds state-of-the-art information-theoretic baselines while remaining computationally efficient. As a result, VGE provides a practical and scalable approach to epistemic-aware uncertainty estimation in ensemble models. An open-source implementation is available at: https://github.com/nextdevai/vge.

Evaluation of per-sample uncertainty quantification from neural networks is essential for decision-making involving high-risk applications. A common approach is to use the predictive distribution from Bayesian or approximation models and decompose the corresponding predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model-related) and aleatoric (data-related) components. However, additive decomposition has recently been questioned. In this work, we propose an intuitive framework for uncertainty estimation and decomposition based on the signal-to-noise ratio of class probability distributions across different model predictions. We introduce a variance-gated measure that scales predictions by a confidence factor derived from ensembles. We use this measure to discuss the existence of a collapse in the diversity of committee machines.

Radio Link Failure (RLF) prediction system in Radio Access Networks (RANs) is critical for ensuring seamless communication and meeting the stringent requirements of high data rates, low latency, and improved reliability in 5G networks. However, weather conditions such as precipitation, humidity, temperature, and wind impact these communication links. Usually, historical radio link Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their surrounding weather station observations are utilized for building learning-based RLF prediction models. However, such models must be capable of learning the spatial weather context in a dynamic RAN and effectively encoding time series KPIs with the weather observation data. Existing work utilizes a heuristic-based and non-generalizable weather station aggregation method that uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for non-weighted sequence modeling. This paper fills the gap by proposing GenTrap, a novel RLF prediction framework that introduces a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based learnable weather effect aggregation module and employs state-of-the-art time series transformer as the temporal feature extractor for radio link failure prediction. The GNN module encodes surrounding weather station data of each radio site while the transformer module encodes historical radio and weather observation features. The proposed aggregation method of GenTrap can be integrated into any existing prediction model to achieve better performance and generalizability. We evaluate GenTrap on two real-world datasets (rural and urban) with 2.6 million KPI data points and show that GenTrap offers a significantly higher F1-score of 0.93 for rural and 0.79 for urban, an increase of 29% and 21% respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art LSTM-based solutions while offering a 20% increased generalization capability.

Identifying and counting blood components such as red blood cells, various types of white blood cells, and platelets is a critical task for healthcare practitioners. Deep learning approaches, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs) using supervised learning strategies, have shown considerable success for such tasks. However, CNN based architectures such as U-Net, often struggles to accurately identify platelets due to their sizes and high variability of features. To address these challenges, researchers have commonly employed strategies such as class weighted loss functions, which have demonstrated some success. However, this does not address the more significant challenge of platelet variability in size and tendency to form aggregates and associations with other blood components. In this study, we explored an alternative approach by investigating the role of convolutional kernels in mitigating these issues. We also assigned separate classes to singular platelets and platelet aggregates and performed semantic segmentation using various U-Net architectures for identifying platelets. We then evaluated and compared two common methods (pixel area method and connected component analysis) for counting platelets and proposed an alternative approach specialized for single platelets and platelet aggregates. Our experiments provided results that showed significant improvements in the identification of platelets, highlighting the importance of optimizing convolutional operations and class designations. We show that the common practice of pixel area-based counting often over estimate platelet counts, whereas the proposed method presented in this work offers significant improvements. We discuss in detail about these methods from segmentation masks.

The hematology analytics used for detection and classification of small blood components is a significant challenge. In particular, when objects exists as small pixel-sized entities in a large context of similar objects. Deep learning approaches using supervised models with pre-trained weights, such as residual networks and vision transformers have demonstrated success for many applications. Unfortunately, when applied to images outside the domain of learned representations, these methods often result with less than acceptable performance. A strategy to overcome this can be achieved by using self-supervised models, where representations are learned and weights are then applied for downstream applications. Recently, masked autoencoders have proven to be effective to obtain representations that captures global context information. By masking regions of an image and having the model learn to reconstruct both the masked and non-masked regions, weights can be used for various applications. However, if the sizes of the objects in images are less than the size of the mask, the global context information is lost, making it almost impossible to reconstruct the image. In this study, we investigated the effect of mask ratios and patch sizes for blood components using a MAE to obtain learned ViT encoder representations. We then applied the encoder weights to train a U-Net Transformer for semantic segmentation to obtain both local and global contextual information. Our experimental results demonstrates that both smaller mask ratios and patch sizes improve the reconstruction of images using a MAE. We also show the results of semantic segmentation with and without pre-trained weights, where smaller-sized blood components benefited with pre-training. Overall, our proposed method offers an efficient and effective strategy for the segmentation and classification of small objects.

Automating the annotation of benthic imagery (i.e., images of the seafloor and its associated organisms, habitats, and geological features) is critical for monitoring rapidly changing ocean ecosystems. Deep learning approaches have succeeded in this purpose; however, consistent annotation remains challenging due to ambiguous seafloor images, potential inter-user annotation disagreements, and out-of-distribution samples. Marine scientists implementing deep learning models often obtain predictions based on one-hot representations trained using a cross-entropy loss objective with softmax normalization, resulting with a single set of model parameters. While efficient, this approach may lead to overconfident predictions for context-challenging datasets, raising reliability concerns that present risks for downstream tasks such as benthic habitat mapping and marine spatial planning. In this study, we investigated classification uncertainty as a tool to improve the labeling of benthic habitat imagery. We developed a framework for two challenging sub-datasets of the recently publicly available BenthicNet dataset using Bayesian neural networks, Monte Carlo dropout inference sampling, and a proposed single last-layer committee machine. This approach resulted with a > 95% reduction of network parameters to obtain per-sample uncertainties while obtaining near-identical performance compared to computationally more expensive strategies such as Bayesian neural networks, Monte Carlo dropout, and deep ensembles. The method proposed in this research provides a strategy for obtaining prioritized lists of uncertain samples for human-in-the-loop interventions to identify ambiguous, mislabeled, out-of-distribution, and/or difficult images for enhancing existing annotation tools for benthic mapping and other applications.

In this work, we apply state-of-the-art self-supervised learning techniques on a large dataset of seafloor imagery, \textit{BenthicNet}, and study their performance for a complex hierarchical multi-label (HML) classification downstream task. In particular, we demonstrate the capacity to conduct HML training in scenarios where there exist multiple levels of missing annotation information, an important scenario for handling heterogeneous real-world data collected by multiple research groups with differing data collection protocols. We find that, when using smaller one-hot image label datasets typical of local or regional scale benthic science projects, models pre-trained with self-supervision on a larger collection of in-domain benthic data outperform models pre-trained on ImageNet. In the HML setting, we find the model can attain a deeper and more precise classification if it is pre-trained with self-supervision on in-domain data. We hope this work can establish a benchmark for future models in the field of automated underwater image annotation tasks and can guide work in other domains with hierarchical annotations of mixed resolution.