Ibrahim Hassan

Inadequate climate data stations often make hydrological modelling a rather challenging task in data-sparse regions. Gridded climate data can be used as an alternative; however, their accuracy in replicating the climatology of the region of interest with low levels of uncertainty is important to water resource planning. This study utilised several performance metrics and multi-criteria decision making to assess the performance of the widely used gridded precipitation and temperature data against quality-controlled observed station records in the Lake Chad basin. The study’s findings reveal that the products differ in their quality across the selected performance metrics, although they are especially promising with regards to temperature. However, there are some inherent weaknesses in replicating the observed station data. Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing precipitation showed the worst performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.13–0.50, a mean modified index of agreement of 0.68, and a similarity coefficient SU = 0.365, relative to other products with satisfactory performance across all stations. There were varying degrees of mismatch in unidirectional precipitation and temperature trends, although they were satisfactory in replicating the hydro-climatic information with a low level of uncertainty. Assessment based on multi-criteria decision making revealed that the Climate Research Unit, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Centre precipitation data and the Climate Research Unit and Princeton University Global Meteorological Forcing temperature data exhibit better performance in terms of similarity, and are recommended for application in hydrological impact studies—especially in the quantification of projected climate hazards and vulnerabilities for better water policy decision making in the Lake Chad basin.

This study employed stable isotopes of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in conjunction with other hydrological parameters to understand the origin, inferred residence time, and seasonal effect of groundwater in the shallow aquifers of the eastern Dahomey Basin. A total of 230 groundwater samples (97 in the wet season and 133 in the dry season) were collected from the borehole and shallow aquifer between May 2017 and April 2018. Groundwater analysis included major ions and δ¹⁸O and δ²H, isotopes data in precipitation from three selected Global Network of Isotope in Precipitation (GNIP) stations across West Africa, Douala in Cameroon, Cotonou in Republic of Benin, and Kano in Nigeria were used in comparative analysis. Results of the hydrochemical model revealed Ca-HCO₃ and Na-Cl as dominant water types with other mixing water types such as Ca–SO₄, Ca–Cl, Na–SO₄, and K–Mg–HCO₃, which characterised early stage of groundwater transformation as it infiltrates through vadose zone into the aquifer. δ¹⁸O and δ²H precipitation data from the three stations plotted along with the groundwater samples indicate recent meteoric water origin, with little effect of evaporation during the dry season. The plot of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) against δ¹⁸O showed clustering of the water samples between the recharge and the evaporation zone with dry season samples trending towards increased TDS, which is an indication of the subtle effect of evaporation during this period. Tracing groundwater types along the flow paths within the basin is problematic and attributed to the heterogeneity of the aquifer with anthropogenic influences. Moreover, a comparison of the δ¹⁸O and δ²H isotopic compositions of groundwater and precipitation in the three selected stations, with their respective deuterium excess (D-excess) values established low evapotranspiration induced isotope enrichment, which could be due to higher precipitation and humidity in the region resulting in low isotope fractionation; hence, little effect of seasonal variations. The study, therefore, suggested groundwater recharge in the shallow aquifer in the eastern Dahomey Basin is of meteoric origin with a short residence time of water flows from soils through the vadose zone to the aquifers.

Meeting long-term rural community water supply needs requires diligent geohydrological conceptualisation. Study of Malawi’s Lake Chilwa Basin, including sampling of 330 water points in Phalombe District, enabled assessment of groundwater quality influence upon supply. The control of larger Lake Chilwa paleo-environments on current Basin groundwater quality is demonstrated. Lacustrine sediment deposition forming high-level deposits under open lake conditions and terrace deposits under open and closed lake conditions significantly control the groundwater major-ion quality and salinity now observed. Paleo-lake extent marks the transition between low-TDS (total dissolved solids) groundwater suitable for water supply at higher elevations and high-TDS brackish groundwater in areas overlain by lacustrine deposits closer to the current lake level. Low-TDS groundwater is limited to mid-to-low reach influent leakage of rivers incising terraces. Permeable fluvial deposits within the deeper paleo-river channel may possibly provide low-TDS water. The conceptual model, whereby paleo-lake controls groundwater salinity, provides science-based evidence to address policy to manage the significant water point functionality concerns quantified at the district and river basin scales. Targeting of the low-TDS groundwater alongside improved use of upland low-TDS stream/river sources with fewer, but larger capacity, and better maintained gravity-fed supply schemes are recommended. This study hence shows the value of paleo-geohydrology interpretation of the lake–groundwater system conceptualisation to inform Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6.5.1)—integrated water resources management policy for rural water supply.

The Niger Delta is the most climate-vulnerable region in Nigeria. Flooding events are recorded annually in settlements along the River Niger and its tributaries, inundating many towns and displacing people from their homes. In this study, climate change impacts from extreme meteorological events over the period 2010–2099 are predicted and analyzed. Four coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under respectively concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios were used for climate change predictions. Standardized precipitation indices (SPI) of 1-month and 12-month time steps were used for extreme event assessment. Results from the climate change scenarios predict an increase in rainfall across all future periods and under both emission scenarios, with the highest projected increase during the last three decades of the century. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the rainfall at Port Harcourt and Yenagoa Stations is predicted to increase by about 2.47% and 2.62% while the rainfall at Warri Station is predicted to increase by about 1.39% toward the end of the century. The 12-month SPI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios predict an exceedance in the extreme wet threshold (i.e., SPI > 2) during all future periods and across all study locations. These findings suggest an increasing risk of flooding within the projected periods. The finding can be useful to policymakers for the formulation and planning of flood mitigation and adaptation measures.

This study employed electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) in characterising the shallow groundwater aquifers of Eastern Dahomey basin in southwestern Nigeria to assess the possible occurrence and distribution of saltwater within the aquifers. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), induced polarization (IP) and borehole logging were carried in locations with relatively enhanced electrical conductivity (EC) within the coastal zone of the basin through 97 groundwater samples from shallow wells and boreholes; 500 m-length ERT and IP sections were carried out along three traverses A–B, C–D and E–F in directions perpendicular and parallel to the coastline. Three geoelectrical layers were identified along traverse line A–B which comprises cross-sections 1, 2, 3 and 4 located around Ugbonla, Aboto and Igbokoda with layers’ resistivity and chargeability values ranging from (1–1000, 33–200 and 1–1700 Ωm), and (−50–200 Ωm, −30–200 Ωm and −50–120 Ωm, respectively, from the top to the bottom layer. These values indicated unconsolidated sand/lateritic silty clay, underlain by a sandy/silty clay layer with underlying fine-grained sand with disseminated clay lenses. The average thickness of the first two layers was 16 and 53 m while that of the third layer was undetermined. Resistivity and chargeability results from ERT and IP cross-sections along profile C–D exhibited characteristics similar to that of profile A–B with unconsolidated sands which were underlain by intercalation of sandy/silty clay and fine-grained sands with suspected clay lenses saturated with saline water. Profile E–F revealed a geoelectrical layer with low resistivity which ranged from 1–30 Ωm with the corresponding chargeability between −150–400 ms. This indicated a saline water-saturated layer of fine-grained sand and silty clay which is overlaid by the unconsolidated unconfined freshwater aquifer. Correlation of selected ERT results with borehole logs further affirmed the suspected lithology from the sections. Two scenarios of saltwater intrusions into coastal freshwater aquifer were suggested which include the presence of trapped salt-saturated clay lenses within aquifer lithology and seawater incursion induced by over-drafting of groundwater in this basin.Therefore, it identified the need for further investigation which will involve a combination of hydrochemical and isotopes to further understand the paleowater hypothesis.

Selection of a suitable general circulation model (GCM) ensemble is crucial for effective water resource management and reliable climate studies in developing countries with constraint in human and computational resources. A careful selection of a GCM subset by excluding those with limited similarity to the observed climate from the existing pool of GCMs developed by different modeling centers at various resolutions can ease the task and minimize uncertainties. In this study, a feature selection method known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) was employed to assess the performance of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM outputs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selection was made according to their capability to simulate observed daily precipitation (prcp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) over the historical period 1980–2005 in the Niger Delta region, which is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. The ensemble of the four top-ranked GCMs, namely ACCESS1.3, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHM, and NorESM1-M, were selected for the spatio-temporal projection of prcp, Tmax, and Tmin over the study area. Results from the chosen ensemble predicted an increase in the mean annual prcp between the range of 0.26% to 3.57% under RCP4.5, and 0.7% to 4.94% under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century when compared to the base period. The study also revealed an increase in Tmax in the range of 0 to 0.4 °C under RCP4.5 and 1.25–1.79 °C under RCP8.5 during the periods 2070–2099. Tmin also revealed a significant increase of 0 to 0.52 °C under RCP4.5 and between 1.38–2.02 °C under RCP8.5, which shows that extreme events might threaten the Niger Delta due to climate change. Water resource managers in the region can use these findings for effective water resource planning, management, and adaptation measures.

Despite the increasing interest in climate change and water security, research linking climate change and groundwater quality is still at an early stage. This study explores the seasonal effect of the change in biogeochemical process for the redox-sensitive ions and metals Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺, SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻ to assess the groundwater quality of the shallow coastal aquifer of Eastern Dahomey Basin in southwestern Nigeria. Field physicochemical measurement of EC, pH TDS, Eh, salinity, temperature, and the static water level (SWL) was carried out on 250 shallow wells; 230 water samples were collected for analysis between June 2017 and April 2018. A spatial distribution map of these ions and metals showed an increasing concentration in the dry season water samples compared to those of the wet season. This higher concentration could be attributed to change in the intensity of hydrochemical processes such as evaporation, redox, and mineral precipitation. Results of linear regression modelling established significant relationships between SWL, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, Fe, and Eh for both wet and dry seasons with the p-value falling between 75% and 95%, which can also be seen in the plots of Eh/ORP against Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺, SO₄²⁻, and NO₃⁻. These results revealed the influence of the redox process for both seasons, while also having a higher impact in the dry season while variation of concentration revealed decrease with increase in depth, which could be attributed to a decrease in well hydraulic properties and aeration. An Eh-pH geochemical diagram revealed NO₃⁻ as the controlling biogeochemical process over Fe in most of the sample wells. Concentrations of NO₃⁻, Fe, and Mn are above the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standard for drinking water in most water samples. This study has established the link between climate change and groundwater quality in shallow coastal aquifers and suggested the need for strategic groundwater management policy and planning to ameliorate groundwater quality deterioration.

The groundwater from shallow coastal aquifers in Nigeria has been reported to be under intense stress resulting from both natural and anthropogenic impacts ranging from saltwater intrusion, effluent-related contamination and pollution to oil spillage, gas flaring, municipal, industries and agriculture. Here we characterised the hydrostratigraphy and hydraulic characteristics of the shallow coastal aquifers of the Niger Delta basin and assessed the resilience of groundwater to both natural and anthropogenic impacts. Fifty-two borehole logs were analysed from which lithological sections were used to generate cross-sections along with four profiles. The system was more complex than previously reported: a unit of silty sand was observed in the western part of the basin that thins out leaving the eastern part of the basin as an unconfined aquifer underlain by multiple thin beds of the sand aquifer. A layered sand aquifer occurs in the northern parts of the basin, which holds freshwater in this area, and is interbedded by clay layers which serve as aquitards. The relatively higher hydraulic conductivity of the Benin Formation units compared to those of the Deltaic Formation leave it with weaker climate change resilience and more vulnerable to pollution and contamination. While groundwater remains the dominant source of fresh water in the northern part of the basin, a strategic approach is needed to access potable water from the southern part where contaminated surface water appears to directly interact with groundwater of the uppermost unconfined aquifer. Management of waste and effluent related to oil spillage, municipal, industries and agricultural in this area should be engineered to protect the groundwater resources of this aquifer.