Jana Špirková

The aim of this paper is to analyse the cancellation of life insurance contracts on death using an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The study focuses on identifying risk factors that influence the time to cancellation, with the objective of determining which to identify those insureds who cancel their policies the fastest. The analysis revealed several notable findings regarding the impact of premium payment frequency on contract cancellation. Specifically, yearly premium payments were found to extend the time to cancellation by 27% compared with monthly payments, holding all other factors constant. For contracts with monthly premiums, 10% of clients cancel within approximately 376 days, whereas for yearly premiums, the corresponding period is 476 days. Additionally, the results indicate that clients who did not conclude their contracts through the tied agent distribution channel tend to cancel their policies sooner. The AFT model was constructed using established R packages for survival analysis.

Longevity risk – the risk that policyholders outlive expected mortality projections – poses a significant challenge to the financial sustainability of pension insurance. This paper investigates the valuation of permanent life annuities under IFRS 17, the accounting standard that fundamentally reshaped actuarial reporting in 2023. We propose a robust mortality model that integrates a selection factor to more accurately capture the idiosyncratic longevity of annuity holders. Furthermore, the study quantifies the Risk Adjustment (RA) for non-financial risks using the Cost of Capital (CoC) method, aligning with Solvency II valuation principles. Our results demonstrate how precise longevity modelling influences the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) and overall liability adequacy. These findings offer critical insights for insurers aiming to balance product stability with the rigorous transparency requirements of IFRS 17.

This monograph aims to compute Slovakia’s sustainability index by apply-ing four distinct weighting methods to the nine contributing indicators and to analyze and compare the resulting values with those of selected European countries. The sustainability index considers key demographic and economic in-dicators that are essential for the long-term funding of pension systems. Specifically, it includes factors like the old-age dependency ratio, retirement age, savings rate, government debt levels, public pension spending, and real economic growth. Based on these indicators, sustainability is evaluated as the system’s capacity to secure long-term financing without requiring fre-quent interventions or reforms that might impact the quality of the pensions delivered.

Objectives: The objective of our paper was to determine the statistical significance of the impact of the COVID-19 disease on the average age of death of an individual and the dependence of the average age of death on the causes of death in 2020. Study design: Awareness of the effects and consequences of the pandemic prompted us to check whether COVID-19 had a statistically significant impact on death patterns in Czechia, Poland, and Slovakia. Methods: The research is based on a detailed comparative analysis of the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in countries that are regionally and culturally close. The Renkonen similarity index is calculated, followed by the non-parametric test for similarity of structures. Results: The average life expectancy in the analyzed countries decreased by about 1–2 years, and the forecasts of the increase in the number of deaths in 2020 turned out to be underestimated by 11% in the case of Slovakia and by 15% in the case of Poland and Czechia. COVID-19 was the fourth leading cause of death for women and the third leading cause of death for men in Poland and Czechia. In Slovakia, it was the third leading cause of death among women and the fourth among men. Conclusions: The pandemic caused not only direct deaths from the virus, but also indirect deaths due to the disruption of healthcare systems, socioeconomic shocks, and mental health consequences.