Justus Haucap

This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5–6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany’s strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%.

This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5–6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany’s strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%.

This study examines the relationship between digitalization and total fertility rates (TFR) across OECD countries over the period 2000–2021, accounting for spatial interdependence in fertility dynamics. Digitalization is conceptualized as a multidimensional process and is primarily measured using fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people, complemented by mobile broadband penetration and ICT goods exports as robustness indicators. Employing spatial panel econometric techniques and comparing the results with non-spatial fixed-effects models, the analysis reveals a robust positive association between digitalization and realized fertility at the macro level. The preferred spatial error model indicates significant spatial dependence, suggesting that fertility outcomes are shaped by regionally correlated unobserved factors, such as shared welfare regimes, cultural proximity, and synchronized economic conditions, rather than direct spillovers of fertility levels. The results further identify an inverted U-shaped relationship between income per capita and fertility, as well as a U-shaped association between female labor-force participation and fertility, consistent with evolving work–family arrangements in advanced economies. While digitalization and female labor-force participation each display independent relationships with fertility outcomes, their interaction does not attain statistical significance. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of digitalization and spatial context in understanding contemporary fertility patterns and suggest that coordinated investments in digital infrastructures alongside family-supportive institutions may help mitigate persistently low fertility in OECD countries.

Utilizing Connor’s International Cartel Database and employing difference-in-differences methodology, we find that market concentration, the number of buyers and cartel duration have significant impacts on cartel overcharges. We also find that the European Commission’s 2006 guidelines on the method of setting fines for cartel infringements seem to have decreased cartel overcharges in the EU. In addition, the EU’s cartel damages directive of 2014 (2014/104/EU) appears to have increased private damage payments. Overall, we find support that these two changes in EU competition policy have a reversing impact on the otherwise increasing trend of cartel overcharges, as these measures tend to make infringements more costly at least in the EU.

This study analyzes voting behavior in Türkiye's parliamentary elections from 2007 to 2023 under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), focusing on regional disparities and rising political discontent. Using province‐level data and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation with region‐specific interactions, the analysis identifies substantial regional variation in the determinants of electoral support for both incumbent and opposition parties. While economic growth positively influenced AKP votes—particularly in provinces in central‐west Türkiye—this effect was reversed in regions like the South‐east, Marmara and Aegean‐Mediterranean, where economic downturns and unemployment increased support for opposition parties. Socioeconomic variables, such as educational gender gaps, agricultural economic structure, and healthcare access, also shaped voting patterns. The study further highlights the significance of spatial cleavages and identity‐based dynamics, including the persistent influence of Kurdish and Alevi demographics. The analysis of the AKP's vote swing between the June and November 2015 elections shows that economic and demographic variables alone are insufficient to explain the shift; instead, increased security concerns and nationalist rhetoric appear to have played a pivotal role. These findings underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity and political context when analyzing voting behavior in electoral authoritarian regimes.

Utilizing Connor’s International Cartel Database and employing difference-in-differences methodology, we find that market concentration, the number of buyers and cartel duration have significant impacts on cartel overcharges. We also find that the European Commission's 2006 guidelines on the method of setting fines for cartel infringements seems to have decreased cartel overcharges in the EU. In addition, the EU’s cartel damages directive of 2014 (2014/104/EU) appear to have increased private damage payments. Overall, we find support that these two changes in EU competition policy have a reversing impact on the otherwise increasing trend of cartel overcharges, as making the infringement more costly at least in the EU.

Zusammenfassung: Die Messewirtschaft ist in Deutschland durch eine Konkurrenz privater und öffentlicher Messeveranstalter gekennzeichnet. Im Gegensatz zu den privaten Veranstaltern sind die öffentlichen Messeveranstalter vertikal integriert: Sie besitzen und betreiben einerseits die lokale Messeinfrastruktur, veranstalten aber auch selbst zahlreiche Messen. Aus dieser Asymmetrie können Wettbewerbsverzerrungen entstehen wie etwa eine Selbstbevorzugung. Die Corona-Pandemie hat diese Problematik nochmals verschärft. Durch eine Selbstregulierung, etwa in Form einer Selbstverpflichtung zu einem Code of Conduct, könnte sich die Messewirtschaft verpflichten, nicht zwischen Eigen- und Fremdmessen zu diskriminieren, um eine wettbewerbsschädliche Selbstbevorzugung zu vermeiden.

Zusammenfassung: Das Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMEL) plant ein Gesetz zum Schutz von Kindern vor Werbung für Lebensmittel mit hohem Zucker‑, Fett- oder Salzgehalt (Kinder-Lebensmittel-Werbegesetz – KLWG). Das BMEL möchte so Übergewicht und ernährungsmitbedingte Erkrankungen wie z. B. Adipositas bei Kindern und Jugendlichen reduzieren. Dem bisher bekannten Entwurf des Gesetzes zufolge würde jedoch nicht nur an Kinder, d. h. Personen unter 14 Jahren, gerichtete Werbung für Lebensmittel mit verhältnismäßig hohem Gehalt an Zucker, Salz oder Fett untersagt. Vielmehr würde das KLWG in der vorgeschlagenen Fassung ein nahezu generelles Werbeverbot für fast alle Lebensmittel jenseits von Frischfleisch, Frischfisch, Obst, Gemüse, Hülsenfrüchten, Milch und (ungesüßten) Säften implizieren. Ein Inkrafttreten des Gesetzes würde somit die Werbe- und Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten für (viele) Unternehmen in der Lebensmittelbranche massiv einschränken. Nicht nur auf dem Lebensmittelmarkt wären erhebliche Wettbewerbseffekte zu erwarten, sondern insbesondere auch in der Medienwirtschaft für privatwirtschaftliche Rundfunkunternehmen und Medienagenturen. Damit wirkt das geplante Werbeverbot als „Brandbeschleuniger“ für das schleichende „Mediensterben“ und gefährdet letztlich auch die Meinungs- und Medienvielfalt in Deutschland. In der Konsequenz droht vor allem im dualen Rundfunksystem eine fundamentale Verschiebung.

Zusammenfassung: Der öffentlich-rechtliche Rundfunk (ÖRR) steht zu Recht in der Kritik. Mit dem technologischen Fortschritt und einem vielfältigen Medienangebot aus öffentlich-rechtlichen und privaten Sendern, dem Internet, diversen Streaming-Diensten und sozialen Medien haben die Rezipienten ihr Nutzungsverhalten stark verändert. Zudem schwindet die normative Rechtfertigung und gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz des ÖRR, der für kostenintensive Ausgaben sowie eine zu unausgewogene und zuweilen verzerrte Berichterstattung kritisiert wird. Auf Basis einer Analyse des 3. und 4. Medienänderungsstaatsvertrags entwickelt der Kronberger Kreis acht konkrete Reformschritte zur Stärkung der Governance des ÖRR. Eine Umsetzung dieser Reformempfehlungen würde dazu beitragen, einen möglichst hohen gesellschaftlichen Mehrwert durch den ÖRR und das zur Verfügung stehende Beitragsaufkommen zu generieren. Dadurch ließen sich nicht nur die Kosten des ÖRR senken, sondern auch seine Akzeptanz in der Bevölkerung stärken – und damit die Integrationsfunktion, die der ÖRR erfüllen soll.