Fatemeh Bakhtiari

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are asked to put forward their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which present their proposed pathways to tackle climate change. To that end, circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a potentially important catalyzer to meet NDCs. Yet, the potential of CE strategies to help reach climate goals at the country scale has been little explored until now. Here, we propose a consistent step‐wise methodology, which assesses quantitatively the potential of CE strategies to reach national targets for GHG emission mitigation. Projections of a given country's business‐as‐usual (BAU) emissions are derived to pinpoint key emitting sectors and link those with relevant CE strategies identified from the literature that can mitigate their emissions. The resulting mitigation potentials can be compared to different national benchmarks to serve policy making processes. Although applicable to any countries, we focus on applications to developing countries, which often lack structured approaches and efficient mechanisms to integrate their climate objectives into national strategies and policies. As proof‐of‐concept, we thus applied the methodology to the case of Chile. For this country, the proposed sector‐specific CE measures were found to potentially reduce by 37% the GHG emissions in 2030 compared to BAU levels, thus putting the country on track to fulfill its NDC commitments. Building on this proof‐of‐concept and discussions from its run, we recommend the application of our methodology to other countries to identify CE opportunities and enable capacity building to support policy making.

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets. POLICY INSIGHTS

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gasemissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to whichforecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify theuncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of greenhouse-gasemissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of greenhouse-gas emissions forMexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that,because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes.We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimumtransparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of theforecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to deriveclimate change mitigation targets.

International cooperative initiatives (ICIs) are multi-country, multi-actor non-state actions that have the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The article summarizes the literature on estimates of emission reduction potentials attributed to ICIs. This summary highlights three key issues: there is a plethora of uncoordinated initiatives, often lacking specific, time-bound goals; to a greater or lesser extent most initiatives overlap with the activities conducted under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); and few initiatives have set up transparent performance monitoring and reporting mechanisms. The article concludes with two considerations. Firstly, it advocates for the United Nations Environment Programme as one entity that could bring much-needed coordination among ICIs, and between ICIs and national government-led efforts to mitigate climate change. Secondly, it echoes calls for the initiatives to both adopt transparent monitoring, reporting and verification mechanisms, and ensure that their activities are cost-effective with regard to climate change mitigation. Finally, the article outlines the key issues that will need to be addressed to achieve these goals. Key policy insights