Roopam Shukla

Himalayan region is a critical part of the globe. In recent years,  vegetation cover in this region is undergoing considerable changes attributed ongoing to climatic and anthropogenic factors. The present study aims to capture the interannual vegetation changes over 19 years and explore how topographic and climatic variables contribute to the observed changes. Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (2001–2019) was used to examine the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation in Uttarakhand state in the Indian western Himalayas. Further analysis explored variation across elevation, temperature, precipitation, and vegetation types. Most parts of the Uttarakhand region experienced increasing NDVI trends, particularly in the Needleleaved Evergreen and Broadleaved Deciduous forest types; however, negative trends were observed in shrublands.

The Atmosphere Special Issue, entitled “Emerging Hydro-Climatic Patterns, Teleconnections and Extreme Events in Changing World at Different Timescales”, comprises thirteen original papers

Assessing vulnerability to climate change and extremes is the first step towards guiding climate change adaptation. It provides the basis to decide ‘what’ adaptation measures are needed ‘where’. Vulnerability which is defined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, differs spatially and evolves temporally. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the dynamics of vulnerability at sub-national scales to be prepared for and respond to current and future climatic risks. This paper focuses on Ethiopia where a sub-national understanding of vulnerability dynamics in smallholder agriculture systems is missing to date. The paper assesses the vulnerability of crop-based smallholder systems in Ethiopia for the past (1996–2005), current (2006–2015), and two future (2036–2045 and 2066–2075) climate scenarios using an indicator-based approach. The future scenarios are based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 from four general circulation models. Results show the emergence of highly vulnerable zones that were missing in the past scenario. With Paris agreement pathway, keeping global warming under 2 °C (RCP 2.6), reduction in vulnerability of 10% of the zones is noted in far future (2066–75) as compared to RCP 6.0 where the exposure increases, making 30% of the zones highly vulnerable. The projected increase in exposure to climatic hazards will worsen the vulnerability of smallholder agricultural systems in future unless the current adaptation deficit is sufficiently addressed. This study maps the temporal dynamics of vulnerability unlike the prevailing snapshot assessments at subnational-level for Ethiopia. The study seeks to assist the decision-making process to build resilience to climate change in Ethiopia and other low-income countries with similar geophysical and socio-economic conditions.

In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions.

Smallholder farmers’ responses to the climate-induced agricultural changes are not uniform but rather diverse, as response adaptation strategies are embedded in the heterogonous agronomic, social, economic, and institutional conditions. There is an urgent need to understand the diversity within the farming households, identify the main drivers and understand its relationship with household adaptation strategies. Typology construction provides an efficient method to understand farmer diversity by delineating groups with common characteristics. In the present study, based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas, five farmer types were identified on the basis of resource endowment and agriculture orientation characteristics. Factor analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchial and K-means clustering was use to delineate farmer types. Examination of adaptation strategies across the identified farmer types revealed that mostly contrasting and type-specific bundle of strategies are adopted by farmers to ensure livelihood security. Our findings show that strategies that incurred high investment, such as infrastructural development, are limited to high resource-endowed farmers. In contrast, the low resourced farmers reported being progressively disengaging with farming as a livelihood option. Our results suggest that the proponents of effective adaptation policies in the Himalayan region need to be cognizant of the nuances within the farming communities to capture the diverse and multiple adaptation needs and constraints of the farming households.

Threats of changing climatic conditions on Himalayan agriculture communities are well established and observed. predisposed marginalized social and fragile ecological conditions have increased vulnerability of these communities. However, as vulnerability varies spatially and is effected by the bio-geographical conditions, the information on vulnerability distribution among the different biogeographic zones (BZs) is of value. This study aims to assess impact of social and ecological dimensions on vulnerability of agricultural communities in different biogeographical zones of Himalaya. Inherent vulnerability in different BZs was assessed at village level by performing hierarchal additive clustering. A total of 39 indicators (16 for ecological and 23 for social) were considered and weighed by Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP). The spatial distribution of different vulnerability indices was analyzed by Global and Local Moran’s Index. The results show presence of very high social vulnerability (0.71 ± 0.11) for middle Himalayas (BZ2) and higher ecological vulnerability (0.68 ± 0.13) for lower Himalayas (BZ1). Among the different zones, middle Himalayas (BZ2) shows the maximum inherent vulnerability. The present study aids the policy-makers and stakeholders in identifying the regions requiring immediate intervention. The study also highlights the factors among social or ecological dimensions which require greater attention than others.

Growth of Indian urban population is bound to have a substantial influence on the economic and environmental stability of India. India has the potential of adding double the current urban population, and with intensifying climate change-related disasters it can be home to millions of vulnerable habitants. This study captures the inherent characteristics of the urban population at the district level to compute the inherent vulnerability (IV) index. Our aim was to identify vulnerable regions of the urban population and prepare a composite ranking. Districts were grouped into urban population classes (UPC) for better comparability. We analysed data on 28 indicators under five major components namely, infrastructural, technological, social, financial and ecological. Our results show that 45% and 42% of districts fall under medium and high vulnerability category, respectively. Majority of the high vulnerable districts are clustered in the states already reported for lower Human Development Index (HDI) and high poverty levels in the past. In all the UPCs, the ecological component was observed to be the weak link. In addition, the technology component revealed a major gap. Findings of the study could assist policy makers in identifying the determining components of IV which can be focused for resource and manpower investment.

Agriculture in the Himalayas has witnessed dynamic shifts and acute crises over the last decade. This viewpoint identifies and discusses the factors leading to de-agrarianisation and land abandonment in the western Himalayas. Data on farming preferences and bottlenecks for agricultural production were also gathered through a short survey with farmers. Escalating male out-migration, land fragmentation and heightened exposure to uncertain environmental conditions have transformed agriculture into a liability for the farmers. The viewpoint suggests that effective implementation of land consolidation reforms in the region would enhance agricultural production, curtail mass migration, and potentially insulate farmers from the ongoing agrarian crisis.