Muluken Mekuyie

Understanding future rainfall variability is crucial for climate resilience planning in rain-fed agricultural regions like West Shewa in Ethiopia. This study investigated projected rainfall patterns under moderate (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios using an ensemble of bias-corrected CMIP6 models: BCC-CSM2-MR, MRI-ESM2-0, and GFDL-ESM4. Future estimates (2030-2089) were analyzed using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimator, rainfall anomaly index, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results suggest a significant increase in annual and seasonal rainfall, particularly during the Kiremt and Bega seasons in the near term (2030-2059), with more pronounced increases under SSP585. However, the strength and significance of these trends tend to diminish toward the end of the century (2060-2089), indicating potential future instability and uncertainty in rainfall patterns. SPI analyses further highlight the growing frequency of both wet and dry anomalies, especially under the high-emission pathway, suggesting an increased likelihood of extreme hydrological events. These anticipated changes provide both opportunities and challenges: higher rainfall may alleviate drought-related stress, but it may also increase flood risks and disrupt existing water resource management techniques. The findings highlight the necessity of strategies for adaptation such as climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems, and long-term land use planning in West Shewa to protect livelihoods and ecosystems. Overall, this study provides useful localized insight into future climatic scenarios, which can help policymakers and communities prepare for increased climate resilience.

This study was conducted in the Harshin District of the Somali Region, Ethiopia, to understand the climate change trends, their consistency with pastoralists’ perceptions and their effects on pastoral households. The study used both qualitative and quantitative data collected from 143 households through household surveys. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were also employed to triangulate and substantiate the reports from household surveys. Data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and chi-square tests to test a degree of significance between the pastoral and agropastoral households for the impact of climate change. Mann–Kendall’s trend test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to determine climate change trends of the study area. The result showed that pastoral households perceived an increasing trend in annual temperature and a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal rainfall. Mann–Kendall’s trend analysis confirmed pastoral communities’ perceptions of higher temperatures and rainfall variability, with the exception of a long-term decline in rainfall. The findings further indicated that six droughts (one severe and five moderate) were observed for the period 1983–2017. The result indicated that the significant increase in temperature along with high interannual and seasonal rainfall variability have been causing adverse impacts on crop and livestock production. Therefore, there is a need to provide drought-tolerant and early-maturing crops and improved livestock breeds for pastoral households. Water-related interventions such as small-scale irrigation farming and water harvesting during good rainy seasons is also paramount to enhance climate resilience of the local people.

This study was conducted in rural communities of Lokka Abaya district, Sidama zone, southern Ethiopia to assess vulnerability status of men and women households to climate-induced shocks and stress. This article is based on household survey, focus group discussion and key informant interviews. A total of 258 smallholder farmers were selected from three villages using stratified random sampling. A combination of social, economic and environmental indicators was employed to develop the vulnerability index of each household head and estimate quantitatively that is vulnerability is estimated as a function of adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity of households. The results indicated that farmers had poor access to public services including access to affordable credit, market, health services and climate information. The survey revealed that droughts, floods, soil erosion, pests and diseases were climate-related challenges in the study area. Regarding vulnerability of households to climate variability, results indicated that around 8.5% and 18.2% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were highly vulnerable whilst 41% and 45.5% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were moderately vulnerable. The results confirmed that 37.7% and 27.3% of male- and female-headed households, respectively, were less vulnerable. The rest 12.8% men and 9% women were not vulnerable. Therefore, there is a need to enhance access to affordable credit, market, climate information, health, income diversification of farmers, soil and water conservation and afforestation of hilly areas if farmers need to be climate resilient.

Background: Recently, more emphasis has been given to preparing and adapting communities to the adverse impacts of climate change than mitigating its risks. The present study was conducted in Fentale district, Central Ethiopia to determine the perceived adverse impacts of climate change and variability, the perception of pastoral households on the patterns of climate change and variability, and identify the adaptation /coping strategies of pastoralists to climate change impacts. A household questionnaire survey and focus group discussion were employed to collect primary data at a household level. A total of 130 pastoral households were sampled using random sampling. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results: The findings revealed that the perception of pastoral households on rainfall and temperature patterns was in line with the results of the recorded meteorological data analysis of the present study except the Kiremt rainfall and the long-term annual rainfall trends. The results indicated that pasture and water availability became scarce and livestock assets and productivity were highly reduced, due to adverse impacts of climate change and variability. The most important strategies deployed by the local people included (i) integrating livestock with crop production, (ii) livestock mobility, (iii) livestock diversification and herd composition change, (iv) decreased consumption, (v) remittance, (vi) cash for work and (vii) food aid. Conclusion: Therefore, the decision-makers should support and enhance household’s indigenous adaptation strategies through the provision of market access, early warning information, affordable credit access, and development of water points.

The present study was conducted in the southern Afar Region in Ethiopia to analyse the trends of land-use and land-cover changes and their drivers in the period 1985 to 2015 using remote sensing, field observation, focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews. A substantial loss of grassland cover (64.5%), moderate decline of cultivated land (24%) and a considerable increase in bush and shrub land cover (114.3%) occurred between 1985 and 2015. Consequently, pastoralist’s access to rangeland resources and farmlands was highly restricted, thus putting the pastoral production system under increasing threat. A 13.3% decline of bare land was also observed during the same period. The results further indicated that policy, climate change, and variability, biotic factors including population growth, overgrazing, Prosopis juliflora seed dispersal via livestock’s fecal droppings and seed germination potential of P. juliflora under moisture stress were the most important drivers of land-use and land-cover ...