Maria Lahuerta

Introduction Acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) is a leading cause of hospitalisation and death, particularly in older adults and adults with comorbidities, with acute lower respiratory tract infection (aLRTI; pneumonia and non-pneumonic LRTI) being a major component. Non-pulmonary complications and functional decline after aLRTI are recognised, but their pathogen-specific burden is poorly described. We aimed to quantify renal, hepatic, thromboembolic and functional complications, and mortality, after aLRTI hospitalisation, by clinical phenotype and pathogen. Methods We conducted a cohort study of adults (>18 years) admitted with aLRTD to two hospitals in Bristol, UK (01 August 2022-31 July 2024). aLRTD was classified as pneumonia, non-pneumonic LRTI (NP-LRTI) or no diagnosis of aLRTI. Pathogens were identified from standard-of-care and research microbiology. Outcomes were acute kidney injury (AKI), acute liver dysfunction, venous thromboembolism (VTE), in-hospital falls, reduced mobility at discharge, increased care requirements, and 30-day and 1-year mortality. Analyses were descriptive. Results Among 246,797 adult admissions, 21,456 aLRTD hospitalisations were included: 10,239 (47.7%) pneumonia, 7,742 (36.1%) NP-LRTI and 3,475 (16.2%) with no evidence of aLRTI. Of 19,152 tested aLRTD admissions, 8,503 (44.4%) had a positive microbiological/virological test, yielding 9,204 pathogen detections; 1,194 (6.2%) had co-infections, and SARS-CoV-2 was most frequent, with influenza the second most common in pneumonia and NP-LRTI. Pneumonia had greater severity than NP-LRTI and no diagnosis of aLRTI (median length of stay 6 vs 4 vs 4 days; ICU admission 3.4% vs 0.7% vs 0.5%, respectively). Overall, 22.2% developed AKI, 6.1% acute liver dysfunction, 0.6% DVT and 2.4% PE; 1.8% had a fall, 11.5% reduced mobility, and 16.6% required increased care at discharge. 30-day and 1-year mortality were highest for pneumonia (14.0% and 32.0%, respectively). Pathogen-specific analyses showed longer stays and higher complications and mortality rates for SARS-CoV-2 and Streptococcus pneumoniae, and shorter stays with lower complication and mortality rates for influenza and Haemophilus influenzae. Conclusions Non-cardiovascular complications and functional decline after aLRTI were common, particularly in pneumonic and SARS-CoV-2 or pneumococcal disease. These findings support routine surveillance for renal, hepatic, thromboembolic events, early mobilisation and rehabilitation, and consideration of multi-system outcomes when evaluating public health and economic value of vaccines and therapies.

Objectives: We aimed to assess the risk of cardiovascular hospitalisations (stroke or myocardial infarction (MI)) following a community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalisation in a large Portuguese administrative dataset. Design: Self-controlled case series study. Setting: We used hospitalisation data from National Health Service hospitals across Portugal between 2010 and 2018. Participants: Adults hospitalised for both CAP and stroke/MI in Portugal during the 2010-2018 period (n=13 494, of which 10 400 with stroke and 3094 with MI). Primary and secondary outcome measures: We considered CAP hospitalisation as the exposure (14-, 28- and 91-day exposure periods) and acute cardiovascular (stroke or MI) hospitalisations as the outcome. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were computed using a conditional Poisson regression (overall and by sex and age subgroups). Results: Patients were mostly male and above 75 years. Stroke/MI hospitalisation incidence was higher following CAP, compared with the baseline period. Largest differences were observed in the 14-day period after discharge (IRR for stroke: 2.55, 95% CI: 2.33–2.80; IRR for MI: 3.23, 2.78–3.75), compared with the 28-day (IRR for stroke: 2.06, 1.92–2.22; IRR for MI: 2.62, 2.32–2.95) and 91-day periods (IRR for stroke: 1.37, 1.30–1.44; IRR for MI: 1.75, 1.60–1.91). A similar trend was observed for sex and age subgroups. Conclusions: Our study shows an increased risk of stroke/MI for CAP patients, particularly during the first 2 weeks after being discharged. Effective postdischarge monitoring and follow-up, combined with efforts to prevent CAP occurrence, could improve patient outcomes.

Background: Accurate population size estimates (PSE) of key populations—those disproportionately affected by HIV—are critical to forecast need and inform HIV prevention and treatment programs, though they can be difficult to ascertain due to low visibility of these groups. In Zambia, reliable estimates on the number of people who inject drugs are limited, inhibiting public health response. Objective: We sought to estimate the population size of people who inject drugs in 3 large cities in Zambia, assess how PSEs vary across different estimation methods, and explore the strengths and limitations of each approach. Methods: We applied 2-source capture-recapture (2S-CRC), 3-source capture-recapture (3S-CRC), and successive sampling population size estimation (SS-PSE) methods in Lusaka, Livingstone, and Ndola, Zambia. 3S-CRC methods included location-based 2S-CRC in combination with a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey. Data were collected from November 2021 to February 2022 and analyzed using a Bayesian nonparametric latent class model. SS-PSEs were produced using the RDS recruitment and network sizes. Kruskal tests and general linear models were used to examine sociodemographic and behavioral factors associated with being captured in 2S-CRC among RDS participants. Final city population estimates, incorporating 3S-CRC and SS-PSE with imputed visibility estimates, were generated using a Bayesian consensus estimator. Results: Bayesian consensus PSEs ranged between 0.5% and 1.8% of the adult male population and were below 1% of the total adult population in each city. Consensus estimates were highest in Lusaka (3700, 95% credible interval [CRI] 1500‐7500), followed by Ndola (2200, 95% CRI 1600‐2900) and Livingstone (1200, 95% CRI 900‐1,900). There was variability in estimates by method, with SS-PSE with imputed visibility generally providing the lowest estimates across cities, excluding Lusaka. Across methods, PSEs and uncertainty bounds (95% confidence interval [CI] or CRI depending on method) ranged from 1510 (95% CRI 1030‐2070) to 4350 (95% CI 1410‐18,890) in Lusaka, 360 (95% CI 290‐530) to 2620 (95% CRI 1510‐4680) in Livingstone, and 760 (95% CI 390‐3060) to 4030 (95% CRI 960‐5480) in Ndola. In all cities, fewer recaptures occurred in capture 3 (RDS) than with location sampling via 2S-CRC. Though results varied across cities, RDS participants captured through 2S-CRC differed from those captured solely through RDS in sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors, including housing, education, injection or needle sharing frequency, time since last injection, receipt of drug treatment, and experience with a peer educator in at least one city. Conclusions: This study used rigorous methods to produce PSEs in Zambia, and is the first to produce these for major geographies in the country. Through RDS, 3S-CRC reached people who inject drugs with distinct characteristics that were less accessible via location-based sampling (2S-CRC), yielding a PSE that may better reflect the population and informing the Bayesian consensus estimate. Findings from this study can guide program planning and future surveillance activities.

Introduction: People who inject drugs (PWID) in Zambia are an understudied population at high risk for HIV acquisition and transmission. We report here on the progress within the PWID communities of Livingstone, Lusaka, and Ndola, Zambia towards the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 95-95-95 targets. Methods: A biobehavioral survey used respondent-driven sampling to survey 235 PWID in Livingstone, 349 in Lusaka, and 259 in Ndola in 2021–22. Questions on HIV and injection drug use were administered, and blood was collected for HIV, syphilis, Hepatitis B, and Hepatitis C testing. Weighted prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Gile’s sequential sampling estimator. Results: In Livingstone, Lusaka, and Ndola, HIV prevalence among PWID was 11.9% (95% CI: 7.3, 16.5), 7.3% (95% CI: 4.5, 10.2), and 21.9% (95% CI: 14.5, 29.3), respectively. Among HIV-positive PWID in Livingstone, 70.7% (95% CI: 55.4, 85.0) were aware of their HIV status (95% is 1^st UNAIDS target), 100% of those were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (95% is 2^nd UNAIDS target), and 100% of those achieved viral load suppression (VLS) (95% is 3^rd UNAIDS target). In Lusaka, 66.0% (95% CI: 49.3, 82.2) were aware, 75.7% (95% CI: 51.1, 99.9) were on ART, and 66.3% (95% CI: 42.1, 90.9) achieved VLS. In Ndola, 60.2% (95% CI: 44.1, 76.0), 100%, and 90.2% (95% CI: 82.2, 98.3) were aware, on ART, and achieved VLS, respectively. Conclusions: Awareness of HIV status was low among PWID living in Livingstone, Lusaka, and Ndola, Zambia. Treatment and VLS progress were lacking in Lusaka and Ndola as well with Lusaka showing the least progress toward all three UNAIDS targets. Our site-level findings highlight critical gaps in PWID-specific HIV awareness, treatment, and VLS status in three major urban areas in Zambia that limit progress toward HIV epidemic control in this hard-to-reach population.

Background: Despite achievements in the HIV response, social and structural barriers impede access to HIV services for key populations (KP) including men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender women (TGW), and people who inject drugs (PWID). This may be worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic or future pandemic threats. We explored the impact of COVID-19 on HIV services and sexual and substance use behaviors among MSM/TGW and PWID in Zambia as part of a formative assessment for two biobehavioral surveys. Methods: From November-December 2020, 3 focus groups and 15 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with KP were conducted in Lusaka, Livingstone, Ndola, Solwezi, and Kitwe, Zambia. Overall, 45 PWID and 60 MSM/TGW participated in IDIs and 70 PWID and 89 MSM/TGW participated in focus groups. Qualitative data were analyzed using framework matrices according to deductive themes outlined in interview guides. Results: KP reported barriers to HIV testing and HIV treatment due to COVID-19-related disruptions and fear of SARS-CoV-2 exposure at the health facility. MSM/TGW participants reported limited supply of condoms and lubricants at health facilities; limited access to condoms led to increased engagements in condomless sex. Restrictions in movement and closure of meet-up spots due to COVID-19 impeded opportunities to meet sex partners for MSM/TGW and clients for those who sold sex. COVID-19 restrictions led to unemployment and loss of income as well as to shortages and increased price of drugs, needles, and syringes for PWID. Due to COVID-19 economic effects, PWID reported increased needle-sharing and re-use of needles. Conclusions: Participants experienced barriers accessing HIV services due to COVID-19 and PWID attributed unsafe needle use and sharing to loss of income and lack of affordable needles during pandemic-related restrictions. To maintain gains in the HIV response in this context, strengthening harm reduction strategies and improvements in access to HIV services are necessary.

Introduction: Community health workers (CHWs) play an integral role in Sierra Leone's health systems strengthening efforts. Our goal was to understand CHWs' experiences of providing immunization and malaria prevention services in urban settings and explore opportunities to optimize their contributions to these services.Methods: In 2018, we conducted an exploratory qualitative assessment in the Western Area Urban district, which covers most of the capital city of Freetown. We purposively selected diverse health facilities (i.e., type, ownership, setting) and recruited CHWs through their supervisors. We conducted eight focus group discussions (FGD) with CHWs, which were audio-recorded. The topics explored included participants' background, responsibilities and priorities of urban CHWs, sources of motivation at work, barriers to CHWs' immunization and malaria prevention activities, and strategies used to address these barriers. The local research team transcribed and translated FGDs into English; then we used qualitative content analysis to identify themes.Results: Four themes emerged from the qualitative content analysis: (1) pride, compassion, recognition, and personal benefits are important motivating factors to keep working as CHWs; (2) diverse health responsibilities and competing priorities result in overburdening of CHWs; (3) health system- and community-level barriers negatively affect CHWs' activities and motivation; (4) CHWs use context-specific strategies to address challenges in their work but require further support.Conclusion: Focused support for CHWs is needed to optimize their contributions to immunization and malaria prevention activities. Such interventions should be coupled with systems-level efforts to address the structural barriers that negatively affect CHWs' overall work and motivation, such as the shortage of work supplies and the lack of promised financial support.

Background: Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is a proven strategy to protect infants against malaria. Sierra Leone is the first country to implement IPTi nationwide. IPTi implementation was evaluated in Kambia, one of two initial pilot districts, to assess quality and coverage of IPTi services. Methods: This mixed-methods evaluation had two phases, conducted 3 (phase 1) and 15–17 months (phase 2) after IPTi implementation. Methods included: assessments of 18 health facilities (HF), including register data abstraction (phases 1 and 2); a knowledge, attitudes and practices survey with 20 health workers (HWs) in phase 1; second-generation sequencing of SP resistance markers (pre-IPTi and phase 2); and a cluster-sample household survey among caregivers of children aged 3–15 months (phase 2). IPTi and vaccination coverage from the household survey were calculated from child health cards and maternal recall and weighted for the complex sampling design. Interrupted time series analysis using a Poisson regression model was used to assess changes in malaria cases at HF before and after IPTi implementation. Results: Most HWs (19/20) interviewed had been trained on IPTi; 16/19 reported feeling well prepared to administer it. Nearly all HFs (17/18 in phase 1; 18/18 in phase 2) had SP for IPTi in stock. The proportion of parasite alleles with dhps K540E mutations increased but remained below the 50% WHO-recommended threshold for IPTi (4.1% pre-IPTi [95%CI 2–7%]; 11% post-IPTi [95%CI 8–15%], p < 0.01). From the household survey, 299/459 (67.4%) children ≥ 10 weeks old received the first dose of IPTi (versus 80.4% for second pentavalent vaccine, given simultaneously); 274/444 (62.5%) children ≥ 14 weeks old received the second IPTi dose (versus 65.4% for third pentavalent vaccine); and 83/217 (36.4%) children ≥ 9 months old received the third IPTi dose (versus 52.2% for first measles vaccine dose). HF register data indicated no change in confirmed malaria cases among infants after IPTi implementation. Conclusions: Kambia district was able to scale up IPTi swiftly and provide necessary health systems support. The gaps between IPTi and childhood vaccine coverage need to be further investigated and addressed to optimize the success of the national IPTi programme.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had serious health, economic and psychosocial consequences. Marginalized populations including female sex workers face the stark choice of risking exposure to SARS-CoV-2 as they engage with clients or prioritizing their health at the cost of losing a primary source of income. As part of an ongoing open-label, randomized controlled trial providing daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and adherence support, we interviewed 193 of 200 enrolled young female sex workers (18–24 years) in Kisumu, Kenya, about COVID-19 awareness and precautions, access to health services, and sex work during Kenya’s pandemic-related lockdown. Nearly all participants were aware of COVID-19 and reported taking protective measures, but only half reported concerns about acquiring SARS-CoV-2. Night curfews and bar closures adversely affected participants’ sex work business, reducing the number of clients and payment amounts from clients. Nearly 15% experienced violence from a client or regular, non-paying sex partner during the lockdown period. Participants’ access to healthcare services was not disrupted.

While the scale-up of HIV services has improved national health management information systems (HMIS), there remain challenges in using routine data to guide the introduction of optimized antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. Building on the recent enhancements to the HMIS in Kenya and coinciding with the introduction of a new ARV regimen, tenofovir+lamivudine+dolutegravir (TLD), we developed and implemented an enhanced data system (EDS) to improve availability of safety and efficacy data among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Kenya. Using data from one health facility, we showcase how the EDS can be used to monitor ARV transition and identify missed opportunities to transition eligible patients to optimized regimes. The EDS was designed to create a comprehensive PLHIV database by triangulating patient-level data from the EMR, the pharmacy ARV dispensing tool (ADT) and HIV viral load (VL) databases. On a monthly basis, the database is de-identified and uploaded into a national data warehouse, with interactive dashboards. Using the EDS, we determined that of the 5,500 PLHIV ≥15 years on first-line ART at one facility, 4,233 (77%) had transitioned to optimized ARVs. Of the 1,267 still on legacy regimens, 459 (36%) were determined to be eligible and prioritized to switch. This project illustrates how enhancements to the national HMIS can facilitate the use of routine patient-level data to monitor the transition to new ARVs and inform the national HIV response.