David M. Meko

The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in southern Alberta is the only major Canadian watershed where water supplies are effectively fully allocated. This was the first region targeted for land‐use and water‐supply planning under new provincial legislation. This paper examines water allocation and management in the SSRB from the unique perspective of 900 years of annual river flow in the four major sub‐basins. We reconstructed annual runoff from a dense network of 192 ring‐width chronologies, many in the headwaters of the runoff‐generating sub‐basins. We employed a regression approach to building tree‐ring models of runoff, where the predictors are principal components that capture the dominant hydroclimate signals in a large set of chronologies. The stepwise regression models performed well over a 54‐year calibration period with a mean R ² (among all sub‐basins) of 0.71. The paleohydrology includes at least five prolonged hydrological drought events over the past nine centuries, with the most persistent occurring between 1840 and 1880. While severe droughts have occurred in recent decades, those of the longest duration predate gauge records. Therefore, dendrohydrological evidence suggests that relying solely on modern streamflow records to inform water management and infrastructure planning in the Canadian Prairies may underestimate future drought risks.

Climatic variation is inherently linked with tree phenology; however, phenological triggers depend on species and habitat. We analyzed key climatic factors for the onset of secondary growth for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at the southern limit of its distribution in Siberia. From direct observations of developing tree rings, seasonal curves of the number of cells in the cambial zone, in the cell-expansion zone, and the total number of xylem tracheids were developed over seven years with a wide variety in the phenological dates. We found that later and shorter intervals of these stages of xylogenesis were compensated by higher maximums of kinetics curves, probably due to higher temperatures and daylengths during the respective phenophases. Air temperature and soil temperature at a depth of 20 cm converged to values (mean ± SE) 6.6 ± 0.9 °C (air) and 3.7 ± 0.4 °C (soil) for a 15-day interval prior to cambial activity onset. Date of Tsoil ≥ 3.5 °C was most closely related to cambial activity onset (r = 0.99) and preceded it by 9.6 ± 1.1 days. Cumulative temperature sums were less reliable. Apparently, both air and soil temperature thresholds have to be reached for cambial division to start in this species-habitat combination. Late abundant snowfall can yield divergence between air and soil temperatures and delay the onset of xylogenesis.

Because wood anatomical traits and tree-ring features vary with species and climatic regime, cellular-scale measurements complement ring-width chronologies and help with understanding how forests may respond to future environmental change. We developed anatomical chronologies spanning the 1900–2019 period from multi-century old yellow pines (Pinus jeffreyi Balf. and P. ponderosa P & C Laws.) at four sites surrounding the Tahoe Basin of the Sierra Nevada, at the border between Nevada and California, USA. Measurements of earlywood and latewood traits included lumen area, lumen length, lumen width, wall length, wall-to-lumen length ratio, and conductive area. Climate sensitivity was estimated by bootstrapped response functions with precipitation and temperature (monthly and seasonal) from the Global Historical Climate Network interpolated to the site locations. Moisture emerged as the primary control on anatomical trait expression, as significant coefficients involved precipitation rather than temperature. Earlywood lumen size and conductive capacity were associated with late winter through spring moisture, while cellular wall characteristics were connected with conditions during the growing season. Overall, our study provided new insights into the potential impacts of climatic changes on woody species of remarkable size and longevity in mountain forest ecosystems.

Because wood anatomical traits and tree-ring features vary with species and climatic regime, cellular-scale measurements complement ring-width chronologies and help with understanding how forests may respond to future environmental change. We developed anatomical chronologies spanning the 1900-2019 period from multi-century old yellow pines (Pinus jeffreyi Balf. and P. ponderosa P & C Laws.) at four sites surrounding the Tahoe Basin of the Sierra Nevada, at the border between Nevada and California, USA. Measurements of earlywood and latewood traits included lumen area, lumen length, lumen width, wall length, wall-to-lumen length ratio, and conductive area. Climate sensitivity was estimated by bootstrapped response functions with precipitation and temperature (monthly and seasonal) from the Global Historical Climate Network interpolated to the site locations. Moisture emerged as the primary control on anatomical trait expression, as significant coefficients involved precipitation rather than temperature. Earlywood lumen size and conductive capacity were associated with late-winter through spring moisture, while cellular wall characteristics were connected with conditions during the growing season. Overall, our study provided new insights into the potential impacts of climatic changes on woody species of remarkable size and longevity in an area that is prized for its natural beauty and scenic mountain landscapes.

Tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sibirica Du Tour from near the upper treeline in the Western Sayan, Southern Siberia are found to have an exceptional (below mean–3SD) multi-year drop near 1700 CE, highlighted by the seven narrowest-ring years in a 1524–2022 regional chronology occurring in the short span of one decade. Tree rings are sometimes applied to reconstruct seasonal air temperatures; therefore, it is important to identify other factors that may have contributed to the growth suppression. The spatiotemporal scope of the “nosedive” in tree growth is investigated with a large network of P. sibirica (14 sites) and Larix sibirica Ledeb. (61 sites) chronologies, as well as with existing climatic reconstructions, natural archives, documentary evidence (e.g., earthquake records), and climate maps based on 20th-century reanalysis data. We conclude that stress from low summer temperatures in the Little Ice Age was likely exacerbated by tree damage associated with weather extremes, including infamous Mongolian “dzuds”, over 1695–1704. A tropical volcanic eruption in 1695 is proposed as the root cause of these disturbances through atmospheric circulation changes, possibly an amplified Scandinavia Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. Conifer tree rings and forest productivity recorded this event across all of Altai–Sayan region.

Over the past two decades, more frequent and intense climate events have seriously threatened the operation of water transfer projects in the Pacific Rim region. However, the role of climatic change in driving runoff variations in the water source areas of these projects is unclear. We used tree-ring data to reconstruct changes in the runoff of the Hanjiang River since 1580 CE representing an important water source area for China’s south-north water transfer project. Comparisons with hydroclimatic reconstructions for the southwestern United States and central Chile indicated that the Pacific Rim region has experienced multiple coinciding droughts related to ENSO activity. Climate simulations indicate an increased likelihood of drought occurrence in the Pacific Rim region in the coming decades. The combination of warming-induced drought stresses with dynamic El Niño (warming ENSO) patterns is a thread to urban agglomerations and agricultural regions that rely on water transfer projects along the Pacific Rim.

Regional warming and associated changes in hydrologic systems pose challenges to water supply management in river basins of the western United States and call for improved understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of runoff. We apply a network of total width, subannual width, and delta blue intensity tree-ring chronologies in combination with a monthly water balance model to identify droughts and their associated precipitation P and temperature T footprints in the Truckee–Carson River basin (TCRB). Stepwise regression gave reasonably accurate reconstructions, from 1688 to 1999, of seasonal P and T (e.g., R² = 0.50 for May–September T). These were disaggregated to monthly values, which were then routed through a water balance model to generate “indirectly” reconstructed runoff. Reconstructed and observed annual runoff correlate highly (r = 0.80) from 1906 to 1999. The extended runoff record shows that twentieth-century droughts are unmatched in severity in a 300-yr context. Our water balance modeling reconstruction advances the conventional regression-based dendrochronological methods as it allows for multiple hydrologic components (evapotranspiration, snowmelt, etc.) to be evaluated. We found that imposed warming (3° and 6°C) generally exacerbated the runoff deficits in past droughts but that impact could be lessened and sometimes even reversed in some years by compensating factors, including changes in snow regime. Our results underscore the value of combining multiproxy tree-ring data with water balance modeling to place past hydrologic droughts in the context of climate change. Significance Statement: We show how water balance modeling in combination with tree-ring data helps place modern droughts in the context of the past few centuries and a warming climate. Seasonal precipitation and temperature were reconstructed from multiproxy tree-ring data for a mountainous location near Lake Tahoe, and these reconstructions were routed through a water balance model to get a record of monthly runoff, snowmelt, and other water balance variables from 1688 to 1999. The resulting extended annual runoff record highlights the unmatched severity of twentieth-century droughts. A warming of 3°C imposed on reconstructed temperature generally exacerbates the runoff anomalies in past droughts, but this effect is sometimes offset by warming-related changes in the snow regime.