Myron A. Peck

Predictions of climate-driven marine biodiversity change typically overlook noncommercial and rare taxa, leading to an incomplete and potentially biased understanding of change. We address this gap by quantifying α-, β-, and γ-diversity using Hill numbers consistently across co-occurring phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, and fish taxonomic groups. Using Bayesian additive regression trees and extensive survey data, we project climate-driven biodiversity change in the northeast Atlantic until 2100. We show that climate change could redistribute biodiversity both within taxonomic groups, altering the contribution of rare species, and across the food web. Widespread increases in fish and benthos species richness, reflecting poleward migration, often coincided with declines in zooplankton and phytoplankton richness, potentially disrupting energy transfer from lower to higher trophic levels. By identifying areas with high biodiversity across taxonomic groups and predicting how these could change in the future, we provide a framework to support proactive conservation actions to help achieve global biodiversity targets in a changing climate.

Oceanic warming poses a critical threat to bivalve aquaculture, a highly sustainable, low-environmental-impact form of food production. The vulnerability of bivalve aquaculture to thermal...

Offshore wind farms (OWFs) are rapidly expanding to meet growing demands for renewable energy, with development expected to extend further offshore into deeper waters. Given this expanded human footprint, it is important to better understand the long-term ecological consequences of OWFs and how these may interact with ongoing climate change. We used the coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem-biogeochemical water-column model (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM) to investigate ecosystem-wide responses to environmental changes associated with OWFs and climate warming. Specifically, we examined OWF-related scenarios of reduced benthic suspension-feeding activity, representing potential effects of contaminant emissions from OWFs, and reduced wind forcing, together with increased sea surface temperature. The scenarios were simulated individually and in combination to explore potential interactive effects. These scenarios were simulated at two contrasting locations in the North Sea, representing a well-mixed coastal site and a seasonally stratified offshore site. The coastal site exhibited comparatively modest ecosystem responses across the scenarios, whereas responses were generally stronger at the deeper offshore site. At the offshore site, changes in stratification altered vertical nutrient dynamics and contributed to pronounced differences in ecosystem responses between the surface and bottom layers. Our results demonstrate that ecosystem responses to OWF-related and climate-driven environmental changes are strongly dependent on local environmental conditions, suggesting that ecological consequences may differ substantially as wind farm development expands from shallower to deeper environments.

Global changes in seawater temperatures are reshaping species distributions, driving both range contractions and expansions. In recent decades, the European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), a warm-temperate species, has expanded its distribution to higher latitudes in the NE Atlantic including the North Sea and adjacent coastal habitats, with unknown consequences to local food webs. We investigated the population dynamics of this range expansion using a mathematical model for consumer-resource interaction, representing seabass and three key prey resources associated with its ontogenetic diet shifts. Our model simulations suggested that a marked increase in the availability of the intermediate prey resource led to 100% increase in total seabass biomass and 300% increase in abundance. In contrast, an ∼2°C rise in seasonal seawater temperature, with equal resource productivity, resulted in increases of ≤ 40%. We then compared these model predictions with a long-term, high-resolution time series (1970–2022) for European seabass in the southern North Sea. The time-series data has exceptional resolution in time as well as measured variables and therefore allowed us to evaluate whether similar patterns to the model predictions were evident in the empirical data. Key features predicted by the model, including the timing of cohort emergence, cohort length distributions, and size class abundances, were reflected in the long-term monitoring data. While rising water temperature is often emphasized as a key driver of coastal ecosystem dynamics in the Anthropocene, our findings show the importance of resource availability, particularly when predators exploit prey resources in novel habitats.

Small pelagic fish (SPF) are critical to the trophodynamic structure and function of marine systems and support some of the most valuable and socially important fisheries worldwide. Their “boom and bust” population dynamics, shifts in distribution, and importance as forage resources for other fish stocks place unique challenges to assessing and managing SPF. In response to these challenges, an international working group was formed in 2019 to foster collaboration aimed at closing key knowledge gaps in the ecology and sustainable management of SPF. Here, that group reviews progress made over the last ~10 years and identifies priorities for the next stage of coordinated international collaboration. Key research needs include: (i) enhancing monitoring programs to capture shifts in SPF distribution and incorporating new technologies, from molecular tools and digital imaging to biophysical and ecological modelling, (ii) improving data sharing to better understand life‐history bottlenecks and cross‐regional population dynamics, (iii) advancing process‐based studies on oceanic and trophodynamic interactions to clarify the ecological roles of SPF as both predators and prey, and (iv) conducting bioeconomic and risk analyses to assess the vulnerability of fishing‐dependent human communities to environmental and fish population fluctuations. A key pathway forward involves integrating mechanistic ecological knowledge, ecosystem and bioeconomic modelling, and social‐ecological frameworks into real‐time, adaptive, and equitable management approaches. This integration will be essential for developing resilient, ecosystem‐based fisheries management capable of anticipating tipping points, accommodating non‐stationary population dynamics, and ensuring sustainability under future climate and socio‐economic uncertainties.

The ability to predict how fishes respond to changes in temperature and resource variability is paramount to developing sustainable management plans and for projecting the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We developed a versatile, physiological model capable of providing size-specific estimates of fish growth and fecundity across varying temperatures and resource levels. The model includes a mechanistic representation of individual-level life history processes across diverse biogeographic and functional fish guilds, using direct, species-specific parameter estimates. We demonstrate its application to five marine species (Atlantic cod, Atlantic herring, five-bearded rockling, European sprat and thinlip mullet), which differ in life history strategies and biogeographic distributions, but all rely on intertidal nursery habitats—areas particularly susceptible to anthropogenic change. In all simulations, resource availability had a stronger influence on fish performance than temperature. Nevertheless, the model also revealed how and why higher temperatures often decreased fitness and/or survival of specific types of species. We made no changes to the model structure for different species, and the resulting model predictions were not fitted but were based on eco-physiological first principles. Comparison between modelled and empirical data collected in the shallow Wadden Sea (southern North Sea) confirmed benefits of warming to thermophilic, range-expanding species, while core (established) species at their lower latitudinal limits of their distribution face local extirpation. The model allows insight into more variables than often reported from survey and monitoring efforts, such as reproductive output. The model’s broad applicability across a range of species, geographic regions and research objectives makes it valuable for generating knowledge needed to buttress actions aimed at addressing ecological and conservation challenges in a future climate.