Carmelina Cosmi

The energy transition is an essential process for mitigating the effects of climate change in a global context where recent conflicts threaten energy security. Municipalities play an increasing role in achieving the decarbonization targets set at a national level, but they need effective tools to identify the most appropriate actions and policies for achieving quantitative targets. Among the tools available, energy models allow us to represent the evolution of the energy system under different boundary conditions or constraints and defining the least-cost pathways for sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of a bottom-up modeling approach in the framework of the ETSAP TIMES model generator to represent and optimize the local-scale energy system of the city of Tito in Southern Italy, with a particular focus on the residential and tertiary sectors. The optimization of a Business-as-Usual reference scenario over a thirty-year time horizon (2020–2050) shows an initial situation based on the prevalent use of natural gas. The sensitivity analysis carried out by gradually increasing the cost of natural gas and providing subsidies for the purchase of heat pumps shows a 92% reduction in fossil fuel consumption and a 60% for CO₂ emissions as early as 2030.

The energy transition is an essential process for mitigating the effects of climate change, in a global context where recent conflicts are increasingly jeopardising the security of energy supply. Municipalities play an increasing role in achieving the decarbonization targets set at a national level using more efficient technologies, renewable energy production, cleaner energy solutions and the active involvement of citizens. Effective and prescriptive tools are needed to enable local administrators to identify the most appropriate actions and policies for achieving quantitative targets. Among the tools available, energy models make it possible to represent the status quo, based on the energy balance of a reference year, and the evolution of the energy system under different boundary conditions or constraints, to define the least-cost pathways for sustainable development based on present and future technology availability. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of a bottom-up modelling approach in the framework of the ETSAP TIMES models’ generator to represent and optimize the local scale energy system of the city of Tito in Southern Italy and to pave the way for further analysis aimed at promoting the implementation of a renewable energy community and energy efficiency measures, with the view to achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the residential and tertiary sectors. The optimization of a Business-as-Usual reference scenario over a thirty-year time horizon (2020-2050) shows an initial situation based on the prevalent use of natural gas. The sensitivity analysis carried out by gradually increasing the cost of natural gas and providing subsidies for the purchase of heat pumps shows significant benefits in terms of reduction of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.

Dynamic simulation is increasingly vital in the energy transition, offering advantages over steady-state modeling. However, its widespread adoption faces hurdles, notably in acquiring real input data and interpreting results effectively, limiting its legal effectiveness in Italy and elsewhere. Energy audits, empowered by advanced modeling, should become standard practice, rather than reserved for exceptional buildings. Hourly dynamic simulation, crucial for capturing energy usage and occupant comfort variations, requires adaptable building automation systems utilizing sensor networks. This study compares two dynamic simulations conducted on an identical classroom at the University of Basilicata, Italy, using real input data collected via a sensor network, highlighting the importance of adaptable building automation systems accessible to all stakeholders. This inclusive approach enables tailored design solutions, aligning with EU ecological transition goals and positioning dynamic modeling as a key driver in sustainable building practices.

This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

This is a reply to the paper by Miroslav Variny

The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the “Nexus Thinking” which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model’s Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities.

The European Union 2050 climate neutrality goal and the climate crisis require coordinated efforts to reduce energy consumption in all sectors, and mainly in buildings greatly affected by the increasing temperature, with relevant CO₂ emissions due to inefficient end-use technologies. Moreover, the old building stock of most countries requires suited policies to support renovation programs aimed at improving energy performances and optimize energy uses. A toolbox was developed in the framework of the PrioritEE project to provide policy makers and technicians with a wide set of tools to support energy efficiency in Municipal Public Buildings. The toolbox, available for free, was tested in the partners’ communities, proving its effectiveness. The paper illustrates its application to the Potenza Municipality case study in which the online calculator DSTool (the core instrument of the toolbox) was utilized to select and prioritize the energy efficiency interventions in public buildings implementable in a three-year action plan in terms of costs, energy savings, CO₂ emissions’ reduction and return on investments. The results highlight that improvements in the building envelopes (walls and roofs), heating and lighting and photovoltaic systems allow reducing CO₂ emission approximately 644 t/year and saving about 2050 MWh/year with a total three-year investment of 1,728,823 EUR.