Cheryl Shaffer Brehme

Predicting population abundance while accounting for uncertainty is an essential task for managers of endangered species but is often hindered by the challenge and expense of comprehensive data collection. Many traditional methods for estimating abundance of rare or elusive species are costly and logistically difficult, with occupancy‐based methods being a popular alternative. While the theoretical relationship between occupancy and abundance is well studied, there are few examples of methodological approaches for predicting abundance from occupancy. This study presents a novel approach to bridge the gap between abundance and occurrence for species with low capture probability, using the Pacific pocket mouse ( Perognathus longimembris pacificus ; PPM) in Southern California, USA, as a model system. PPM have been monitored across three subpopulations in this region using track tubes to inform occupancy over space and time and live captures to inform PPM demography and phenology. Paired capture–recapture data and presence–absence data collected between 2012 and 2022 were used to estimate density, occupancy, and detection, respectively. Density was modeled as a function of both occupancy and detection, and abundance at monthly and annual scales was predicted from estimates of density for all subpopulations. Our methodology leverages all available data in an integrated Bayesian analysis where uncertainty in site‐level abundance is naturally accounted for when scaling abundance estimates to the population level. While occupancy and detection were both predictive of and positively correlated with density, a meaningful amount of variation in density was not explained by our model, revealing avenues for future study as well as providing a realistic assessment of uncertainty in population‐level abundance predictions. In addition to advancing the current understanding of Pacific pocket mouse population dynamics, this approach is applicable to a wide array of species and ecosystems where population management is necessary, but individuals have low capture probability and available resources may preclude direct estimation of density at relevant spatial scales. From a design perspective, our results demonstrate the utility of strategically deploying density‐based monitoring methods within long‐term occupancy monitoring programs. More generally, our findings underscore the potential of this approach to inform methods to include abundance estimation in spatial occupancy monitoring programs for endangered species.

The purpose of this Wake Atoll Vessel Movement Biosecurity Program Efficacy document is to provide the United States Air Force (USAF) with an unbiased review of the current (2015; hereafter referred to as the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) biosecurity plan for the military base Wake Island Airfield (WIA) on Wake Atoll (hereafter Wake). Periodic reviews are an integral step for evaluating plan efficacy and updating plans with new information for improving plan effectiveness. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) acted as an external expert to provide the first unbiased assessment of the program and observe how it was being implemented. The USAF 2015 Wake Island Biosecurity Management Plan goes beyond sea vessel and container biosecurity; however, those aspects were not included in this evaluation.We used several methods for a quality assurance evaluation of the 2015 sea vessel and shipping container biosecurity program specified in the Biosecurity Plan. Our evaluation included real-time observations in Hawai`i and at Wake. We surveyed cargo staging areas and empty shipping containers before supply shipment and the containers, barge, and marina at Wake after shipment. We used various detection tools and techniques (for example, visual encounter surveys, glue boards, chew cards, camera traps, and so on). We carried out an insect mortality experiment trial using one of the required shipping container biosecurity tools (dichlorvos impregnated pest strips). We also included a table-top review of documentation (largely the 2015 Biosecurity Plan) with respect to our observations to provide an assessment of how well the Biosecurity Plan protocols were carried out and how well they serve their intended purpose.We observed biosecurity concerns in each focal area and stage of cargo handling (before and after barge movement) across all surveys of containers, flat racks, break bulk, warehouses, and dock areas. Using visual inspections, we recorded biosecurity concerns for every empty container we inspected before it was to be stuffed with cargo. Most containers had structural integrity issues (such as holes and damaged floorboards) and sanitation concerns, including live animals and plant matter or seeds. About one third of the containers had mold and a few had wet floorboards or standing water. We detected live animals on the break bulk, and flat racks were in poor condition. Next, we inspected cargo staging areas and noted extensive permeability of the building where cargo was staged for the 2018 resupply shipment and the building that had typically been used. We included the adjacent dock area used for staging break bulk, shipping containers and mooring the barge. We detected more than 5,000 individuals of 105 species. We also detected seeds in each location and scattered vegetation in the dock area, including growing in from the area outside separated by a chain link fence.During surveys at Wake, we observed that 100 percent of the shipping containers, including all containers sent with required biosecurity tools, had live animals. The barge had only one unsecured snap trap for intercepting rodents aboard, we saw areas with fairly deep layers of dirt (or soil; we did not examine it to determine its properties), and there was plant matter with seed heads on the barge gangway that could easily be transported onto the barge. There was also only one snap trap station that was improperly placed on the dock. We also observed piled wood and vegetation nearby that could provide refuge to potential stowaway animals escaping.Combined, surveys of the containers, staging areas, barges, and receiving area in Hawai`i and at Wake resulted in detection of more than 9,000 individuals of 131 animal species; nearly 4,000 individuals of 62 species were detected in surveys of containers once they had arrived at Wake. None of the species identified are known to be native to Wake. Our preliminary risk analysis of all species detected included eight species that we scored as high risk of potentially negative effects to biodiversity, infrastructure, or human health should they arrive at Wake and become established. Six of these species were only recorded using tools not clearly required by the Biosecurity Plan or being used to implement the plan.We observed that the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in the cargo staging area did not target the suite nor number of species present. Our analysis also indicated the required biosecurity tools intended to intercept animals in shipping containers were inadequate to handle the volume of organisms that were in the containers. The insect mortality trial experiment showed the pest strips were highly effective for only one of the three species tested, leaving uncertainty about how effective they are across the suite of potential species stowing away in cargo and containers.Base Operating Support (BOS) did not carry out all Biosecurity Plan actions, but we also noted the document uses terminology such as “recommendation” as opposed to “requirement” which may lead contractors to consider those actions as optional. However, USAF provided evidence of BOS training and follow up; this included detailed identification of specific requirements for some of the biosecurity actions that we did not observe being carried out.The 2015 Biosecurity Plan contains critical and useful components that seem to be well carried out. However, we also saw discrepancies, weaknesses, or both across methods and protocols currently used for Wake Atoll biosecurity. We observed shortcomings at each stage of our survey as well as in the plan as written, and we suggest general modifications to the Biosecurity Plan for consideration to potentially strengthen biosecurity overall.Prevention is the most efficient and cost-effective biosecurity measure. Based on our findings, we see possible solutions to improve existing preventative biosecurity efforts and reduce potential...

Editorial: Amphibian and reptile road ecology

For species of conservation concern, long‐term monitoring is vital to properly characterize changes in population distribution and abundance over time. In addition, long‐term monitoring guides management decisions by informing and evaluating the efficacy of management actions. A long‐term monitoring initiative for the federally threatened Stephens' Kangaroo rat ( Dipodomys stephensi, SKR) was established in 2005, across 628 hectares within Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP), San Diego, California, USA. From 2005 to 2018, we tracked trends in area occupied by SKR, trends in relative SKR densities within occupied habitat, and modeled probabilities of SKR occupancy, colonization, extinction, with habitat, climate, and disturbance covariates. Area occupied by SKR increased almost 2‐fold from 2005 to 2018 on MCBCP, while density in occupied habitat increased almost 3‐fold. Increased area occupied was correlated with increases in estimated density among years, indicating SKR population growth occurs by expansion into suitable habitat patches, as well as increases in numbers within occupied habitat. SKR occupancy was positively associated with gentle slopes (40%). They were more likely to colonize previously unoccupied habitat when there were moderate levels of open ground (40–80%) and low shrub cover (10%), less open ground (40%). Additionally, probabilities of SKR occupancy and colonization were higher in areas with moderate levels of disturbance, which was positively associated with open ground and forb cover. We conclude that long‐term occupancy and density monitoring is effective in informing status and trends of spatially dynamic species and that moderate habitat‐based disturbance is compatible with the management of SKR.

Introduction: Designs for safe and effective road crossing structures for small animals are typically under-road microtunnels and culverts which have varying levels of effectiveness reported in the scientific literature. Many species, particularly migratory amphibians, may have limited ability to find and use passages if they are too far apart, resulting in substantial barrier effects.Methods: We designed a novel open elevated passage (elevated road segment: ERS), similar to a low terrestrial bridge, that could theoretically be built to any length based upon species needs and movement characteristics. A 30 m length prototype ERS was installed along a forest road with a history of amphibian road mortality in Sierra National Forest, Fresno County, CA, USA. From 2018 to 2021, we monitored small animal activity under the ERS in relation to surrounding roadside and forest habitats using active infrared cameras.Results: We documented a total of 8,815 unique use events, using species specific independence criteria, across 22 species of amphibians (3), reptiles (4), and small mammals (15). Poisson regression modeling of taxonomic group activity under the ERS, roadside and forest, showed that amphibian activity was highest in the forest habitat, no differences were observed for reptiles, and small mammal activity was highest under the ERS. However, mean activity estimates under the ERS were equal to or greater than the open roadside habitat for all 22 species, suggesting that adding cover objects, such as downed logs and vegetation may further enhance passage use.Discussion: Overall, results showed that the design of the ERS crossing has potential to provide high connectivity for a wide range of amphibian, reptile, and small mammal species while reducing road mortality. ERS systems can also be used in areas with challenging terrain and other hydrological and environmental constraints. Incorporating current road ecology science, we provide supplemental ERS concept designs for secondary roads, primary roads and highways to help increase the options available for road mitigation planning for small animals.

The invasiveness of nonnative taxa can vary across a landscape due to environmental gradients, suggesting that location-dependent management strategies may be more effective at reducing spread compared to a “one size fits all” approach across the entire introduced range. Using bait stations placed along linear transects within habitat preserves, we tested for effects of ecoregion, vegetation, soil moisture, habitat edge type (i.e., moisture source), and distance from edges on the presence of the invasive Argentine ant Linepithema humile in San Diego County, California, a region with high indigenous biodiversity and numerous rare and protected species. Our results showed an inverse relationship between the presence of native ant species and the presence of the Argentine ant across ecoregions, with the latter reaching peak abundance in the coastal terrace. Argentine ant presence was negatively associated with distance from all edge types regardless of location, but the magnitude of this effect varied among ecoregions. In the xeric foothill and inland valleys, the probability of occurrence was nearly 0 at distances of 200 m and 750 m from moisture edges, respectively, whereas in the coastal terrace, the probability remained above 0.80 at distances up to 1.25 km. When compared to previous studies at different spatial scales, these findings provide an alternative perspective on the invasiveness of the Argentine ant at the landscape level. Our results further suggest that efforts to control spread in regions with a Mediterranean climate may be more successful in inland areas, where the ant is likely to have lower environmental tolerance and native ant species may be better able to generate biotic resistance. In contrast, different tactics and expectations may be necessary for coastal areas, where the same constraints are diminished or absent.

Fragmentation within urbanized environments often leads to a loss of native species diversity; however, variation exists in responses among‐species and among‐populations within species. We aimed to identify patterns in species biogeography in an urbanized landscape to understand anthropogenic effects on vertebrate communities and identify species that are more sensitive or resilient to landscape change. We investigated patterns in species richness and species responses to fragmentation in southern Californian small vertebrate communities using multispecies occupancy models and determined factors associated with overall commonness and sensitivity to patch size for 45 small vertebrate species both among and within remaining non‐developed patches. In general, smaller patches had fewer species, with amphibian species richness being particularly sensitive to patch size effects. Mammals were generally more common, occurring both in a greater proportion of patches and a higher proportion of the sites within occupied patches. Alternatively, amphibians were generally restricted to larger patches but were more ubiquitous within smaller patches when occupied. Species range size was positively correlated with how common a species was across and within patches, even when controlling for only patches that fell within a species' range. We found sensitivity to patch size was greater for more fecund species and depended on where the patch occurred within a species' range. While all taxa were more likely to occur in patches in the warmer portions of their ranges, amphibians and mammals were more sensitive to fragmentation in these warmer areas as compared to the rest of their ranges. Similarly, amphibians occurred at a smaller proportion of sites within patches in drier portions of their ranges. Mammals occurred at a higher proportion of sites that were also in drier portions of their range while reptiles did not differ in their sensitivity to patch size by range position. We demonstrate that taxonomy, life history, range size and range position can predict commonness and sensitivity of species across this highly fragmented yet biodiverse landscape. The impacts of fragmentation on species communities within an urban landscape depend on scale, with differences emerging among and within species and populations.

Track tubes are used to identify small animals by their tracks. Animals that are small enough to fit into the tubes walk over ink pads and onto cardstock paper to obtain bait within the tube, leaving their footprints. The tracking tubes described in this document are designed to be set on the ground with free access and exit at either end with additional design components for stability, durability, and efficiency. They are also designed to prevent dirt from getting onto the ink pads and to decrease the ability of birds and other mammals to pull out track cards or bait.We describe detailed methods for constructing, setting and checking track tubes, as well as measuring and identifying small mammal prints for a small mammal study. The protocols described are for monitoring the Pacific pocket mouse (PPM); however, this method can be applied to many small mammal species that have uniquely identifiable tracks in relation to co-occurring species.We have deployed track tubes for over 5 years on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton for PPM discovery efforts and to monitor the three extant PPM populations on Base. We have shown that nightly detection probability is similar to that of live-trapping, but the track tubes can be checked weekly or bi-monthly. We use this passive and economical method to assess timing of annual emergence and torpor, seasonal activity, and localized colonization and extinction events. Using this method, we can model occupancy dynamics in relation to habitat and disturbance covariates that directly inform management and support a monitoring and management feedback loop for this species.

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.