Sergiy Zibtsev

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has inflicted immense human suffering, widespread destruction of infrastructure, and severe environmental damage. Beyond the pollution of soil, water, and air, the war has resulted in the release of large quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—emissions that would not have occurred in the absence of this war.A group of Ukrainian and international scientists has been tracking and estimating the GHG emissions attributable to the war, regularly updating their assessments as the conflict evolves. The Initiative on GHG Accounting of War has developed innovative methodologies for different impact categories, including Landscape Fires, where remote sensing is used to assess damage to carbon sinks such as forests. Recently, the Initiative published Guidance on the Assessment of Conflict-Related GHG Emissions, providing a framework for assessing emissions from other armed conflicts worldwide.The next critical step is to hold the Russian Federation accountable for the climate damage caused by these emissions. In a resolution adopted on 14 November 2022, the UN General Assembly called for the establishment of an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss, or injury arising from Russia’s internationally wrongful acts in or against Ukraine. Under the auspices of the Council of Europe, an International Compensation Mechanism is currently being established. One of the damage categories, B3.1 Environmental Damage, covers adverse impacts on fauna, flora, soil, water, air, and ecosystems. Since the climate system is one of the most fundamental ecosystems, compensation for climate damage will be claimed under this category. The scientific assessments mentioned above will provide the necessary evidence and quantification of the harm incurred.During COP30 in Brazil, Ukraine announced it will submit a climate damage claim to the International Compensation Mechanism in 2026. If such a claim is awarded, it would mark the first time a state has been held accountable for GHG emissions resulting from an unlawful act. This aligns with the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which states that all states have a responsibility to protect the climate system.Compensation awarded to Ukraine could be directed toward a low-carbon reconstruction, prioritising energy efficiency and renewable energy, restoration of destroyed carbon sinks through reforestation. Potentially compensation could be used to support vulnerable countries most affected by extreme weather events linked to climate change.

Military conflicts and wars can trigger landscape fires that cover large territories, leading to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere and reducing the carbon sequestration capacity of the burned forests. Assessing the scale of this negative impact using ground-based methods is impossible due to contamination by Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) and landmines, the constant shelling, damage to monitoring systems, power outages, and a shortage of personnel. To spatially quantify the impact of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War on landscape fires, GHG emissions, and reductions in the carbon sequestration capacity of forests, we utilized remotely sensed data from 2022 to 2025 in combination with geoscientific approaches.First, we identified the fire perimeters using satellite monitoring data and expert estimation. We then classified the burned areas into different land cover types: coniferous forests (Scots pine and spruce) and deciduous forests (common oak, beech, hornbeam, other hardwoods, and softwoods), croplands (wheat, barley, sunflower, and corn), and other landscapes (pastures, shrub vegetation, wetlands, and water vegetation). Using Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) for each land cover type summarizing by calendar seasons, we estimated the attribution factor spatially, which identifies the share of landscape fires that were war-related and not caused by natural factors or human activities typical of peacetime. The assumption was that under the no-war scenario, the same weather conditions (FWI) on the same type of land cover and in the same season should cause commensurate areas of fire across Ukraine.To calculate the biomass losses due to war-related fires, we considered the land cover type, the species and age structure of the forest stands, the distribution of fires according to their intensity based on the differenced normalized burn ratio, their landscape-damaging severity, and the biomass content. On this basis, we estimated the immediate GHG emissions from war-related landscape fires as well as the longer-term biomass losses due to current forest fires and their corresponding GHG emissions.Finally, we estimated the loss of carbon sequestration capacity in the burned forests and the associated uncertainty in the results achieved. Our study has demonstrated that during the first 3 years (2022–2024) of the Russo–Ukrainian War, the GHG emissions from war-related landscape fires, including forest, cropland, grassland, and wetland fires, have been substantial, and their spatial pattern has been significantly impacted by the location and intensity of the hostilities. The corresponding GHG emissions in the immediate term were estimated to be 14.18 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), and in the future (long-term), the biomass losses due to current forest fires and their corresponding GHG emissions were calculated to be 32.37 Mt CO2e.

Natural ecosystems face significant pressure from climate change, biodiversity loss, and increasing socio-economic and political stressors—all of which are exacerbated by military conflict. This paper focuses on Ukraine and examines the root causes of disturbances in the country’s forest socio-ecological systems (SES), as well as the impacts of the ongoing war, to identify recovery pathways. Using a multi-method approach, we assess factors affecting Ukraine’s forest SES and identify three key recovery pathways: (1) an economic focus through forest use for low-carbon recovery, including timber for reconstruction and small-scale energy production; (2) a “close-to-nature and close-to-people” approach, leveraging digital tools and innovations for climate-resilient recovery; and (3) anticipatory governance and socio-ecological innovation. Relying on a single pathway risks long-term vulnerability. We highlight that integrating recovery pathways creates synergies. Coordinated actions within Ukraine and from international actors are essential to enable a recovery aligned with “build back better” principles. Our findings offer valuable insights for Ukraine and other conflict-affected regions. Graphical abstract

Vegetation acts as an essential land-based carbon sink, which can be affected by military conflicts and wars through landscape fires that can cover large territories and will lead to additional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. To investigate this impact, we spatially analyzed the effect of the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian War on the GHG emissions from landscape fires and determined the change to the carbon sequestration capacity of the forests. Using remotely sensed data from 2022–2023, we first identified the fire perimeters in the territory of Ukraine. We then classified the burned areas into coniferous and deciduous forests, croplands, and other landscapes, and evaluated the distribution of the fires according to their intensity based on the differenced normalized burn ratio. We used several fire weather condition indices and calculated the attribution factor to identify the share of fires that were war related and were thus not caused by natural factors or human activity that would be typical in times of peace. We estimated the war-related biomass losses during the first two years of the war, considering the landcover type, the species and the age structure of the forest stands, the fire intensity, and the biomass content. The corresponding GHG emissions in the immediate term were estimated to be 9.08 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), with a relative uncertainty of ±46% (95% confidence interval). The estimated future (long-term) biomass losses due to current forest fires and their corresponding GHG emissions were calculated to be 16.86 Mt CO2e (±21%). Finally, losses in the carbon sequestration capacity of the burned forests during the first five years following the landscape fires were estimated to be 2.9 Mt CO2e.

Forests today face significant challenges from climate change, biodiversity loss, and increasing socio-economic and political pressures, all of which intensify with the impacts of military conflicts. This paper focuses on Ukraine and examines the root causes and impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine on forest socio-ecological systems to identify potential recovery pathways. We use a multi-method approach to examine the socio-economic, environmental, and governance factors affecting Ukraine’s forest socio-ecological systems and to assess the impacts of the war. Through a review of relevant literature and interviews with forest sector experts, we identify key pathways for post-war recovery. Pathway 1 emphasises increased forest use for sustainable low-carbon recovery, using timber for housing reconstruction and green small-scale energy production. Pathway 2 suggests `close-to-nature and close-to-people` approach leveraging digital tools and innovations for climate-resilient management. Pathway 3 highlights anticipatory governance, refining policies, enhancing transparency, and fostering socio-ecological innovations to ensure sustainable forest management aligned with environmental and socio-economic goals. Relying on a single recovery pathway risks long-term vulnerability, yet integrating multiple recovery pathways and anticipatory governance creates synergies. We emphasise the importance of integration of innovative approaches into co-designed sustainable management practices. Our findings emphasise that addressing the ongoing crisis in Ukraine requires coordinated efforts from all levels of Ukraine’s stakeholders and international policy actors. We believe that the findings shared in this paper, aligned with the "build back better" principles, could not only support the post-war recovery in Ukraine but also offer valuable insights potentially useful for other conflict-affected regions worldwide.

The War has had serious effects on Ukraine’s forests, in the form of direct damage and fires caused by various munitions. Important damage, though, includes extensive minefields, dud ordnance, and booby traps which are causing forests to be closed to all activities. A study using remotely sensed data reveals that in 2022, more than 70,000 ha of the forests suffered severe destruction and damage due to shelling, fires, and illegal logging by occupying forces. Substantial efforts and innovative strategies are needed to address reforestation and restoration in the face of future climate change. In much of the steppe region and adjacent areas, forests and shelterbelts have been under stress already. The loss of shelterbelts in these regions can compromise future harvests due to rising droughts, sandstorms, soil erosion, and other environmental challenges Important damage, though, is not visible in drone images: extensive minefields, dud ordnance, and booby traps are causing forests to be closed to all activities. Simply completing damage assessments and developing plans for addressing these issues will be an enormous task, involving all agencies, private groups, and local governments concerned with forests, and with international support. Difficult decisions on priorities will be required. Planning is underway on an international basis for programs of demining, bolstering fire management systems, and initiating restoration programs. An overstressed forest fire control system will need to be redesigned to handle future challenges. Shelterbelts will in many instances recover naturally on their own as it will be too hazardous for active restoration measures until demining is done, a task that will take decades. Full restoration of normal, safe activity in the rural areas and forests will only be achieved generations in the future. This paper presents a rapid assessment of the immediate issues and important longterm concerns.

Scots pine forests that make up 33% of the total forest area of Ukraine (9,4 million ha) that are represented mostly by single species and planted stands, have low resilience to climate change, fires and insects. More than 180 000 ha of pine forests were burned within 5 fire episodes in northern and south-eastern regions of the country during extremely dry fire season of 2020. In Luhansk oblast 16 civilians died, 54 were injured, 22 villages and hundreds of houses were burned or damaged because of July and October 2020 fires. Climate change uncertainties and numerous ignition sources in the landscapes require development and implementation of long-term strategy towards building fire resilient landscapes and fire resilient communities. National Strategy of Integrated Landscape Fire Management in Ukraine was developed by joint research team of the Regional Eastern Europe Fire Monitoring Europe and the Global Fire Monitoring Center for defining approaches and stakeholders as well as institutional arrangement of fire resilient landscape and community concept implementation. The Strategy was approved by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resource Management of Ukraine and publicly discussed. Silvicultural intervention and fuel treatment methods were tested experimentally in pine forests of Ukraine within implementation of the RESILPINE project supported by the German Federal Ministry for Food and Agriculture (BMEL) / German Federal Agency for Agriculture and Food (BLE). In particular, fire resilient forest edges on territories with high ignition probability near agricultural fields and lowlands were established via planting birch, apple tree, pear, lime tree in Boyarka Forest Experimental Station, Osterskii Military Forestry and Teteriv Forestry Enterprise. Formation of open fire resilient structure in 60-year-old pine forests via heavy thinning (40%) of overcrowded stands and prescribed burning of ground fuel on southern and south-eastern vicinity of villages Kudriashivka and Varvarivka of Luhansk Oblast that were threatened by fires in 2020. Oblasts were justified and prepared for spring 2022. Preliminary recommendations for state forest enterprises on increasing fire resilience of pine forests were presented and approved by scientific-technical council of the State Agency of Forest Resources of Ukraine.

Large landscape fires in 2015 and 2020 in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ), that burnt in total more than 82 thousand ha of highly radioactive forest lands all over the territory, including Red Forest, located near the Unit 4 Confinement, posed a significant threat for health of fire fighters who participated in the suppression and other personnel of the Zone. Burning of forest fuel contaminated with six radionuclides generated smoke that migrated far beyond borders of the Exclusion Zone with prevailing winds towards populated areas. Future uncertainties caused by climate change require risk assessment for development of fire resilient landscape and risk-based integrated fire management system.            To improve fire prevention in CEZ we have developed a web-based framework for assessing the potential risk of a wildfire that integrates weather data, ignition likelihood, models burn probability, contamination by radionuclides, and available firefighting resources. We combined available field sampling and forest inventory data to parametrize our fuel models. Landsat time series were used for mapping the seasonal pattern of fuels distribution, which conforms to landscape flammability. Canopy fuels were predicted using machine learning models and remote sensing data. We calibrated surface and canopy fuel metrics so that the perimeters of the largest wildfires matched those simulated using the FARSITE fire modelling system based on hourly weather data (i.e., wind speed, wind direction, precipitation etc.).For modelling of the current risk of fires according to fire weather parameters, the relations of the area and number of fires (according to the MODIS MCD64A1 product) and the modified for Ukraine PORTU fire weather index were calculated on the basis of historical meteorological data for the period from 2010 to 2020 for CEZ. Python scripts have been developed, in order to automatically download fire weather data several times per day and calculate PORTU index in 16 km grid cells.The research in CEZ funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Program within the project FirEUrisk “Development a holistic, risk-wise strategy for European wildfire management” (GA 101003890).      

Recent studies show an increase in the number and frequency of catastrophic forest fires in the world since the end of the XX century. Such forest fires often will cause essential economic and environmental losses, human casualties. According to forecasts, in Ukraine due to climate change fire weather danger will steadily grow: temperatures rising, changing seasons duration, prolongation of the vegetative and fire season, increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves and natural hydrometeorological phenomenon, change of local water patterns. Several catastrophic fires in the natural landscapes of Ukraine occurred in 2020 in different regions of the country. Wildfires in Zhytomyr, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Kyiv regions were the largest and most catastrophic in Ukrainian history, with human casualties, large economic losses, environmental and social negative consequences. The main parameters of such catastrophic fires weather conditions, long period without precipitation, high air temperature and wind gusts of 15-25 m/s. There are two main critical periods in Ukraine, in terms of frequency and risk of forest fires. The first, spring, from the melting snow to the regeneration of a new green cover. The second period lasts from the last month of summer into the autumn rainy season when agricultural vegetation dries up and people and farmers use fires for remnants of vegetation clearing in the fields. The catastrophic landscape fires of 2020 indicate the gaps of the current fire management system on natural and cultural landscapes in Ukraine to effectively respond to large fires. The current system needs enhancement in accordance with new conditions and challenges. The manuscript presented information about catastrophic fires that occurred in the natural landscapes of Ukraine in 2020 based on available official information, remote sensing data and data from the geoportal "Landscape Fires of Ukraine" (wildfires.org.ua). Also in the article, performed the analysis of the components of the current fire management system and the main shortcomings and key recommendations for its improvement are formulated.