Elina Mäntylä

Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

Open science (OS) awareness and skills are increasingly becoming an essential part of everyday scientific work as e.g., many journals require authors to share data. However, following an OS workflow can seem challenging at first. Thus, instructions by journals and other guidelines are important. But how comprehensive are they in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology (Ecol Evol)? To find this out, we reviewed 20 published OS guideline articles aimed for ecologists or evolutionary biologists, together with the data policies of 17 Ecol Evol journals to chart the current landscape of OS guidelines in the field, find potential gaps, identify field‐specific barriers for OS and discuss solutions to overcome these challenges. We found that many of the guideline articles covered similar topics, despite being written for a narrow field or specific target audience. Likewise, many of the guideline articles mentioned similar obstacles that could hinder or postpone a transition to open data sharing. Thus, there could be a need for a more widely known, general OS guideline for Ecol Evol. Following the same guideline could also enhance the uniformity of the OS practices carried on in the field. However, some topics, like long‐term experiments and physical samples, were mentioned surprisingly seldom, although they are typical issues in Ecol Evol. Of the journals, 15 out of 17 expected or at least encouraged data sharing either for all articles or under specific conditions, e.g. for registered reports and 10 of those required data sharing at the submission phase. The coverage of journal data policies varied greatly between journals, from practically non‐existing to very extensive. As journals can contribute greatly by leading the way and making open data useful, we recommend that the publishers and journals would invest in clear and comprehensive data policies and instructions for authors.

Aim: Global‐scale studies are necessary to draw general conclusions on how trophic interactions vary with urbanization and to explore how the effects of urbanization change along latitudinal gradients. We predict that the intensity of trophic interactions decreases in response to urbanization (quantified by human population density). Since trophic interactions are more intense at lower latitudes, we also expect major impacts of urbanization at higher latitudes, where base levels are essentially lower.Location: Global (881 study sites).Time period: 2000–2021.Major taxa studied: Birds, arthropods and woody plants.Methods: We compiled global data on insect herbivory and bird predation from studies that employed similar methods and fitted generalized linear mixed models to test how these trophic interactions vary with human population density, latitude and their interactions.Results: The intensity of herbivory and predation decreased with an increase in human population density at lower latitudes. Surprisingly, it remained unaffected at intermediate latitudes and even increased at higher latitudes.Main conclusions: The observed patterns may be attributed to local climate changes in urban areas, such as the Urban Heat Island effect, which disrupts thermal stability in the tropics while increasing niche availability at polar latitudes.

Background: Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question. Methods: We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus, a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators. We tested whether migration schedules among breeding populations differ as a function of their use of seven widely divergent wintering areas across the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. Results: Breeding at higher latitudes led not only to later reproduction and migration, but also faster spring migration and shorter time between return to the breeding area and clutch initiation. Wintering area was consistent within individuals among years; and more distant areas were associated with more time spent on migration and less time in the wintering areas. Skuas adjusted the period spent in the wintering area, regardless of migration distance, which buffered the variation in timing of autumn migration. Choice of wintering area had only minor effects on timing of return at the breeding area and timing of breeding and these effects were not consistent between breeding populations. Conclusion: The lack of a consistent effect of wintering area on timing of return between breeding areas indicates that individuals synchronize their arrival with others in their population despite extensive individual differences in migration strategies.

Aim: Climate is a major driver of large‐scale variability in biodiversity, as a likely result of more intense biotic interactions under warmer conditions. This idea fuelled decades of research on plant‐herbivore interactions, but much less is known about higher‐level trophic interactions. We addressed this research gap by characterizing both bird diversity and avian predation along a climatic gradient at the European scale.Location: Europe.Taxon: Insectivorous birds and pedunculate oaks.Methods: We deployed plasticine caterpillars in 138 oak trees in 47 sites along a 19° latitudinal gradient in Europe to quantify bird insectivory through predation attempts. In addition, we used passive acoustic monitoring to (i) characterize the acoustic diversity of surrounding soundscapes; (ii) approximate bird abundance and activity through passive acoustic recordings; and (iii) infer both taxonomic and functional diversity of insectivorous birds from recordings.Results: The functional diversity of insectivorous birds increased with warmer climates. Bird predation increased with forest cover and bird acoustic activity but decreased with mean annual temperature and functional richness of insectivorous birds. Contrary to our predictions, climatic clines in bird predation attempts were not directly mediated by changes in insectivorous bird diversity or acoustic activity, but climate and habitat still had independent effects on predation attempts.Main Conclusions: Our study supports the hypothesis of an increase in the diversity of insectivorous birds towards warmer climates but refutes the idea that an increase in diversity would lead to more predation and advocates for better accounting for activity and abundance of insectivorous birds when studying the large‐scale variation in insect‐tree interactions.

Aim: Studies conducted at a global scale are necessary to make general conclusions on the effect of urbanization on trophic interactions and explore how these effects change along latitudinal gradients. Since biotic interactions are more intense at lower latitudes, we predict that the intensity of trophic interactions will decrease in response to urbanization (quantified by human population density), with higher impacts of urbanization at higher latitudes. Location: Global (881 study sites). Time period: 2000-2021. Major taxa studied: Birds, arthropods and woody plants. Methods: We compiled global data on insect herbivory and bird predation from individual studies using similar methodologies, and fitted generalized linear mixed models to test the effect of human population density, latitude and their interaction on these two response variables. Results: The intensity of herbivory and predation decreased with the increase of human population density at lower latitudes, remained unaffected at intermediate latitudes, and increased at higher latitudes. Main conclusions: The effect of human population density on insect herbivory and bird predation consistently varies across latitudes, with a reversal of the pattern at high versus low latitudes.

Background: Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question. Methods: We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus , a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators. We tested whether migration schedules among breeding populations differ as a function of their use of seven widely divergent wintering areas across the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. Results: Breeding at higher latitudes led not only to later reproduction and migration, but also faster spring migration and shorter time between return to the breeding area and clutch initiation. Wintering area was consistent within individuals among years; and more distant areas were associated with more time spent on migration and less time in the wintering areas. Skuas adjusted the period spent in the wintering area, regardless of migration distance, which buffered the variation in timing of autumn migration. Choice of wintering area had only minor effects on timing of return at the breeding area and timing of breeding and these effects were not consistent between breeding populations. Conclusion: The lack of a consistent effect of wintering area on timing of return between breeding areas indicates that individuals synchronize their arrival with others in their population despite extensive individual differences in migration strategies.

Aim: Climate is a major driver of large scale variability in biodiversity, as a likely result of more intense biotic interactions under warmer conditions. This idea fuelled decades of research on plant-herbivore interactions, but much less is known about higher-level trophic interactions. We addressed this research gap by characterizing both bird diversity and avian predation along a climatic gradient at the European scale. Location: Europe. Taxon: Insectivorous birds and pedunculate oaks. Methods: We deployed plasticine caterpillars in 138 oak trees in 47 sites along a 19° latitudinal gradient in Europe to quantify bird insectivory through predation attempts. In addition, we used passive acoustic monitoring to (i) characterize the acoustic diversity of surrounding soundscapes; (ii) approximate bird abundance and activity through passive acoustic recordings and (iii) infer both taxonomic and functional diversity of insectivorous birds from recordings. Results: The functional diversity of insectivorous birds increased with warmer climates. Bird predation increased with forest cover and bird acoustic activity but decreased with mean annual temperature and functional richness of insectivorous birds. Contrary to our predictions, climatic clines in bird predation attempts were not directly mediated by changes in insectivorous bird diversity or acoustic activity, but climate and habitat still had independent effects on predation attempts. Main conclusions: Our study supports the hypothesis of an increase in the diversity of insectivorous birds towards warmer climates, but refutes the idea that an increase in diversity would lead to more predation and advocates for better accounting for activity and abundance of insectivorous birds when studying the large-scale variation in insect-tree interactions.