Carolina Tovar

Societal Impact Statement: As of 2026, fewer than 23% of vascular plants have International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, despite accelerating threats to biodiversity. Predictive models of extinction risk complement assessments and help prioritize conservation action but face a trade‐off between data resolution and species coverage. Using Ethiopian endemic flowering plants, we found that medium‐scale spatial data—similar to provinces or counties—strike a balance between resolution and coverage, improving predictive performance. Because these data can be obtained from multiple sources, including textual records, our approach can be implemented in future prediction models, helping experts direct limited resources toward species most at risk. Summary: Extinction risk predictions complement conservation assessments but are limited by available data, creating a trade‐off between resolution and taxonomic completeness. Fine‐scale predictors offer greater resolution but exclude data‐limited species, whereas coarse‐scale predictors maximize species coverage but lack resolution—especially at smaller scales. Recent comprehensive extinction risk assessment of Ethiopia's endemic angiosperms provides an opportunity to investigate the robustness of extinction risk predictions and identify patterns or systematic biases at a national scale. Here, we interrogate the performance of coarse‐scale predictions from Bachman et al. (2024) for Ethiopian endemics, using patterns in misclassifications to identify additional (protected area) and refined (geographic range size and human footprint) predictors that could improve future models. We found that number of floristic regions (similar in scale to provinces) significantly outperformed point‐based range size metrics (extent of occurrence and area of occupancy), and that recalculating human footprint at floristic region‐scale improved predictive performance. Protected area coverage did not improve model performance. While coordinates can be impossible to pinpoint for many records, administrative units can be obtained from textual data, unlocking more possibilities for georeferencing. By leveraging medium‐scale predictors, our approach balances resolution and taxonomic completeness, offering a scalable path to substantially improve global extinction risk predictions.

Questions: Plant functional types (PFTs) represent distinct evolutionary solutions to environmental filtering. Although previous studies in specific sites/countries in the high Andes have examined changes in PFT structure along environmental gradients, a comprehensive analysis spanning the entire mountain range is lacking. We asked: (1) How do regional PFT pools and spectra vary among the Páramo, Puna and high Andean Patagonia biomes and across alpine to nival elevation belts? (2) Do PFT richness, diversity and abundance show consistent latitudinal and elevation trends, linked to climate and substrate conditions? Location: High Andes of South America. Methods: We developed a PFT classification system based on their general morphological plan, applicable across the entire latitudinal and elevational range of the high Andes. Using this framework, we classified 716 species/morphospecies into 14 PFTs and analysed PFT cover, spectra and diversity for 65 summits in 17 study sites within the GLORIA‐Andes network. Results: PFT richness and diversity declined with increasing latitude and elevation. At higher elevations, tussock graminoids decreased in relative cover, whereas shorter PFTs such as cushions, rosette herbs and prostrate shrubs became more important. When cover was weighted by PFT species richness, some groups including erect herbs in the Páramo and rosette herbs in the Puna increased their importance. Convergence in PFT composition and abundance was higher in alpine and subnival belts, whereas nival summits showed greater between‐region heterogeneity. These patterns were linked to abiotic factors, with lower PFT richness and diversity associated with higher scree and rock cover and colder air temperatures, and with regional differences in precipitation seasonality. Conclusions: High Andean summits exhibit distinct PFT spectra across latitude and elevation. Functional diversity diminishes under more limiting conditions: higher elevations and further away from the equator, while short‐stature, cold‐tolerant PFTs gain relative importance. Erect shrubs and erect, rosette and prostrate herbs were the PFTs with the highest number of species, increasing their relative importance in most communities when weighting PFT cover by richness. This study provides a functional baseline for understanding and comparing community responses to climate change across the high Andes.

Climate change is expected to alter forest community composition and functioning, with consequences for the ecosystem services forests provide. However, most macroecological projections focus on individual species distributions and offer limited insight into whether entire communities will remain functionally compatible with future climatic conditions. Here we quantify the risk that present-day forest communities will become functionally misaligned with projected climates using a trait-based approach. We analysed forest inventory data from more than 42,000 mature plots across the United States and Canada. For each plot we estimated community-weighted means for 24 functional traits describing leaf economics, hydraulic function, wood structure, abiotic tolerances and symbiotic strategies. We modelled relationships between community functional composition and environmental conditions, and used these relationships to estimate the trait profiles most compatible with projected late-century climates (2080–2100). Trait–environment misalignment (TEM) risk was quantified as the multivariate distance between current community trait composition and the trait profile associated with the projected future climate at each location, accounting for covariance among traits and intraspecific trait variation. Projected climatic conditions favour trait combinations associated with greater hydraulic capacity and reduced cold and shade tolerance. However, the magnitude of functional misalignment varies strongly across space. The highest TEM risk occurs in high-latitude and montane conifer forests across western and central North America, whereas many mid-latitude broadleaf and mixed forests show lower risk because projected climatic changes reinforce existing drought-adapted functional strategies. Critically, high species richness was the strongest predictor of reduced risk, reinforcing the importance of biodiversity in buffering against adverse outcomes. Our results suggest that many forests are projected to experience climatic conditions associated with functional strategies that differ from those characterising the current community. By identifying where the largest functional adjustments are implied, this trait-based framework provides a scalable way to pinpoint forests most likely to experience suboptimal climate conditions and to prioritise monitoring and climate-adapted management.

With the 1.5°C–5°C increase in global temperature projected for this century, many plant species are expected to shift their distribution ranges to track their environmental requirements. Across several mountain regions, responses to climate change like upslope shifts may result in accelerated rates of species turnover, species richness increases in upper montane belts, and amplified habitat losses. Yet, evidence of how such processes may influence plant diversity in Africa is still scarce. Here, using a species distribution modeling approach, we quantify and map how different scenarios of climatic and land‐use changes may affect plant species ranges in African mountains. Using individually tuned models and dispersal buffers, we compared distribution losses and potential expansion through dispersal across 607 vascular plant species under three shared socioeconomic pathways for the end of the century. Our projections indicate that keeping warming under 2°C until 2100 under a sustainability scenario (SSP1.26), almost half (49.3%) of the species would experience a contraction in suitable areas, compared to 71%–75.6% in case these targets are not met (SSP3.70 and SSP5.85). Among these losses, mean contractions between 19% and 50.4% are predicted depending on the scenario. We project rates of upslope shifts that may be up to three times higher than the global calculated average. Contractions will be higher for species occurring at upper elevations, and trees and shrubs will show lower declines. Our findings align with previously reported trends of upslope shifts of species distributions but suggest that accelerated rates of change may limit the capacity of some species to track their niche based solely on their natural dispersal capacity. This implies that further efforts to improve habitat connectivity, restoration, and assisted migration may be necessary.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the functional trait composition (and hence ecosystem functioning) of tropical alpine regions is critical for predicting biodiversity responses. We tested the effects of a decade of warming on the morphological, chemical and genomic traits of Páramo species using open-top chambers (OTCs). We conducted vegetation surveys and collected samples from individuals inside and outside the OTC plots to estimate differences between treatments (warming versus control). Vegetation cover decreased over time in both treatments suggesting a potential decline in soil moisture in our study area. Warming led to a reorganization of the trait space and trait network structure. Species showed a wide range of responses to warming, with significant changes across different trait combinations. Nevertheless, we did not find significant differences in trait values or the direction of change between species whose percentage vegetation cover increased in OTC (or decreased less) over time, compared with control. Community-weighted mean values of plant height, leaf area, leaf dry matter content, genome size, leaf C and P, significantly increased over time only in OTC plots (i.e. traits associated with carbon storage and decomposition). While warming and reduced soil moisture lead to heterogeneous species responses without a clear winning trait strategy, changes at the community level may have important implications for Páramo ecosystem functioning.

The flowering phenology of many tropical mountain forest tree species remains poorly understood, including flowering synchrony and its drivers across neotropical ecosystems. We obtained herbarium records for 427 tree species from a long-term monitoring transect on the northwestern Ecuadorian Andes, sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and the Herbario Nacional del Ecuador. Using machine learning algorithms, we identified flowering phenophases from digitized specimen labels and applied circular statistics to build phenological calendars across six climatic regions within the neotropics. We found 47 939 herbarium records, of which 14 938 were classified as flowering by Random Forest Models. We constructed phenological calendars for six regions and 86 species with at least 20 flowering records. Phenological patterns varied considerably across regions, among species within regions, and within species across regions. There was limited interannual synchronicity in flowering patterns within regions primarily driven by bimodal species whose flowering peaks coincided with irradiance peaks. The predominantly high variability of phenological patterns among species and within species likely confers adaptative advantages by reducing interspecific competition during reproductive periods and promoting species coexistence in highly diverse regions with little or no seasonality.

Societal Impact Statement: Addressing the burning environmental crisis, we explore how the ‘extreme sport’ of paramotoring can enhance and accelerate scientific exploration with minimal environmental impact compared to off‐road vehicles. Our study demonstrates the scientific potential of paramotoring to access fragile desert ecosystems and investigate unrecorded habitats and species. Comparisons with 4 × 4s showed significant reductions in CO₂‐eq emissions for longer missions and ninefold faster travel times. Unlike off‐road vehicles, which can damage the equivalent of over one football pitch in area per linear kilometre driven, paramotors cause minimal damage. Integrating extreme sports and science can accelerate data and specimen collection for more effective habitat conservation. This has the potential to spark discoveries and engagement across diverse communities.Summary: In the face of an urgent climate and environmental crisis, we explore the potential of paramotoring to expand scientific reach and collection capability without the environmental harm associated with off‐road vehicles. In Peru's fog oasis desert, we brought together paramotor experts and scientists to conduct missions involving monitoring, plant sampling, surveying, sensor placement and transportation. We compared the environmental impact and time taken by paramotoring with surveys conducted using off‐road vehicles and walking. Shorter paramotor missions showed small differences in CO₂ equivalents and time efficiency compared to off‐road vehicles. However, longer missions (28 km from base camp) revealed up to nine times faster travel and two thirds less CO₂ equivalent emissions. Notably, off‐road vehicles left a substantial environmental footprint (700 to 8000 m² per km), whilst paramotors had a minimal impact, with a tiny surface ‘footprint’ of just a few square metres, representing orders of magnitude (1000 to 10,000) less environmental impact. With basic training in identification and sampling, paramotorists collected plant specimens that are invaluable for ongoing and future scientific study. Whilst logistical and safety challenges in transporting scientists via paramotors need further investigation, the benefits, especially compared to surface travel, are evident. Integrating extreme sports into scientific endeavour promises wider and more comprehensive exploration, new discoveries and increased engagement across diverse communities—and in summary—offers significant potential to address urgent environmental challenges.

Aim: We used two fungal data sources for occurrence records (fruitbodies and roots) to (1) test the influence of data source on estimating the environmental niche of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and (2) compare the differences in estimated niche area and density for ECM fungal species with conspicuous (easily observed, i.e. mushrooms) versus inconspicuous (difficult to observe and/or usually overlooked, i.e. crusts and truffles) fruitbodies.Location: Europe.Taxon: Sixty‐six ectomycorrhizal fungi.Methods: We used fungal records obtained from fruitbody and root data of 66 common ECM fungal species in European forests to estimate their environmental niches. The fruitbody data were extracted from public databases (GBIF, UNITE), while the root data (from individual ectomycorrhizas) were obtained from a dataset of 136 ICP Forests long‐term intensive monitoring plots. We estimated the niches for combined data sources (fruitbody and root data) and for each individual data source using six key environmental variables for ECM fungal community composition. We then examined how estimated niche overlap and area (number of cells in niche grid) varied for the two data sources between conspicuous and inconspicuous species.Results: We found that although the niches estimated using combined data from the two data sources had high overlap with the niches estimated from fruitbody data, the niches estimated from fruitbody data had low or medium overlap with the niches estimated using root data for most ECM fungi. The overlap between the two data sources for conspicuous species was significantly larger than that for inconspicuous species. Root data were important for estimating the niche of inconspicuous species, which had a high ratio of root data to fruitbody data.Main Conclusion: Our results indicate that although fruitbody data suffice for estimating the environmental niche for most conspicuous ECM fungi, combined datasets including fruitbody and root data can improve the accuracy of estimated niches and should be used. Root data for inconspicuous species are particularly useful, and thus, adopting root data in niche estimation will better infer the niches of ECM fungi. Inferring niches along environmental variables can guide future sampling and conservation of fungi.

Beetles of the genus Antherophagus are phoretic organisms that inhabit the nests of Bombus species. They migrate and colonize new nests using the same bumblebees as carriers. Although Antherophagus beetles from temperate Europe and North America are known to use some plant species to move between bumblebees, it is unknown which plants are used as transfer stations by neotropical Antherophagus. Here, we report for the first time how phoretic Antherophagus beetles of an undescribed species use the inflorescences of Chuquiraga jussieui to transfer between individuals of Bombus funebris in the páramos of Central Ecuador. Our observations are the highest records (at 4200 m asl) of a phoretic interaction performed so far.