Mark E. Olver

While dynamic risk factors (DRFs) may not in themselves be causal explanations for criminal behaviour, they are important in the prediction and management of offending behaviour (Ward & Fortune, 20...

The present study examined the psychopathy-substance abuse nexus in a diverse Canadian sample of 420 justice-involved youth. The Psychopathy Checklist Youth: Version (PCL: YV) and a series of clinical and criminogenic substance abuse variables—assembled into a composite score that was corrected for missing indicators—were rated from court and treatment files and community recidivism was captured from criminal records. PCL: YV total, lifestyle, and antisocial facet scores showed strong convergence with clinical and criminogenic substance abuse indicators. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that certain indicators and the corrected composite incrementally predicted violent and general recidivism, controlling for PCL: YV total score across gender and ethnoracial groups. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses demonstrated that high psychopathy youth with medium or high substance-related concerns had steeper recidivism trajectories than low psychopathy youth with similar substance concerns. Results underscore the clinical and risk relevance of substance abuse and its intersection with juvenile psychopathy.

The SAPROF-SO was developed as a measure of protective factors relevant to sexual recidivism to support a balanced, holistic assessment of recidivism risk. Traditionally, sexual recidivism risk has been largely understood in terms of the density of risk factors presented by the individual, as measured by instruments like the Static-99R. This paper investigated how far the recidivism risk implied by a Static-99R score would be moderated by the presence of protective factors as measured by the SAPROF-SO Version 1. Data representing 5-year sexual recidivism, along with scores on Static-99R and the SAPROF-SO Version 1, were collated from previously collected samples of men with a history of sexual offending who had been selected for prison treatment programs designed to reduce sexual recidivism risk in Canada and New Zealand, giving a combined sample of N = 467. Fitting a logistic regression equation to predict 5-year sexual recidivism indicated that both instruments were predictive, with the SAPROF-SO powerfully moderating the level of risk implied by Static-99R scores. Implications for clinical assessment are discussed and an Excel-based calculator implementing the logistic regression equation was developed for clinical use.

The working alliance has been extensively studied and consistently linked to improved treatment outcomes; however, existing reviews have almost exclusively focused on non-forensic samples, which differ significantly in client characteristics, treatment goals, and settings. Therefore, prior reviews may not generalize to forensic contexts. Seeking to fill this gap in the literature, a meta-analysis of the working alliance in forensic treatment contexts was conducted and its relationship to risk-relevant treatment outcomes was examined featuring k = 21 unique studies. All three treatment outcomes examined—treatment dropout ( d = 0.390), institutional misconduct ( d = 0.374), and community recidivism ( d = 0.196)—were significantly and negatively associated with the working alliance. These findings demonstrate the working alliance as a meaningful predictor of treatment outcomes in forensic contexts. Implications for research and practice are discussed to promote more favorable treatment outcomes for forensic clients.

The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale (VRS; Wong & Gordon, 1999-2023) risk and change scores in a predominantly adult male, combined sample of Indigenous (n = 439) and non-Indigenous, White majority (n = 597) persons with conviction histories for violent offenses; approximately, two thirds of whom completed risk-need-responsivity based violence reduction treatment services. Indigenous men tended to score higher on VRS static, dynamic, and total scores and to be classified as higher risk; however, there were no differences between the groups in treatment change. In the aggregate sample, VRS total scores demonstrated broadly medium to large effects in the prediction of violent and general recidivism (median AUCs = .72 [Indigenous] and .71 [non-Indigenous]) across ethnocultural groups. Conversely, VRS change scores (controlling for pretreatment score) were significantly associated with decreased violent and general recidivism for Indigenous persons (median AUC = .62) but considerably less so, with small or lower effects, for non-Indigenous persons (median AUC = .48). These results were upheld when effect sizes were aggregated across the samples through meta-analysis. Calibration analyses demonstrated that integrating risk and change information via logistic regression modeling decreased disparities between ethnoracial groups in rates of recidivism associated with VRS scores. Implications for violence risk assessment, treatment, and management using the VRS with Indigenous persons who have a history of criminal violence are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

This study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised (VRAG-R) scores and risk bins in a sample of 124 forensic psychiatric inpatients found Not Criminally Responsible on Account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD) or Unfit to Stand Trial (UST), admitted under Saskatchewan Review Board jurisdiction during a 38-year catchment period. The VRAG-R was scored on all NCR and UST individuals from file, and recidivism data were obtained via official criminal records. The VRAG-R demonstrated strong discrimination properties for general and violent recidivism over 3-year, 5-year, and overall follow-ups. Calibration analyses revealed that VRAG-R recidivism norms tended to estimate higher rates of recidivism than actually observed. Overall, the results supported the use of the VRAG-R for psychological risk assessments with a population of persons found NCRMD; however, it should be a multi-measure process that involves other empirically validated tools.

The present study examined the intersection of risk and protective factors and their associations with sexual, violent, and general recidivism in a treated multisite correctional sample of men (N = 405) with sexual offense conviction histories. Three measures of protective factors-Structured Assessment of Protective Factors, Protective Factors List, and Structured Assessment of Protective Factors-Sexual Offence version-were rated at pre- and posttreatment from detailed institutional files. Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version and Static-99R were examined for incremental predictive validity analyses. Protection measure scores showed good convergence with dynamic risk and change scores and significantly predicted decreased recidivism. Incremental predictive validity analyses, however, demonstrated that Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version dynamic risk and change scores uniquely predicted sexual and violent recidivism in their expected directions, while protection measure baseline and change scores generally did not. Clinical applications of protective factors in sexual violence risk assessment and management are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).

The Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) is a measure of protective factors intended to augment violence risk assessment. While prior research supports the predictive validity of SAPROF ratings, factorial and convergent validity have been underexamined, each of which is required to ensure that the instrument measures intended targeted constructs and converges with test scores from established measures. We evaluated the structural and convergent properties of SAPROF ratings through examining its factor structure and convergence with measures of relevant constructs, as a function of ethnocultural heritage, in a treated sample of 461 men with sexual offense conviction histories. The SAPROF was rated from institutional files pre-and posttreatment. Results of exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) of pre and post SAPROF item ratings identified a temporally stable three-factor model that was invariant across ethnocultural groups; however, it departed from the developers’ original subscale structure—the factors were termed Internal-Prosocial, Motivational-Lifestyle, and External—to reflect continuity with, yet departure from, the current subscale structure. SAPROF ratings were correlated in theoretically and clinically meaningful ways with scores on relevant risk-need-responsivity (RNR) measures. The results support the structural and convergent validity of SAPROF ratings and identified a slightly modified subscale structure in the present sample.