Nathan R. De Jager

Advances in remote sensing, spatial data collection, hydraulic and geospatial models, and the maturation of landscape ecology during the early 2000s spurred the concept of rivers as landscapes or “riverscapes.” Since that time, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program—one of the world’s longest running large-river ecosystem restoration and monitoring programs—has applied landscape ecological principles to the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). I examine spatial patterns of aquatic nutrient concentrations, submersed aquatic vegetation, and fish and mussel communities, finding that within-river patterns are often patchy in nature, likely resulting from how nutrient processes and community traits interact with spatial variability in hydraulic exchange patterns. Local-scale patchy spatial patterns in the UMRS are embedded in system-scale longitudinal gradients, and a hierarchical view of the river has provided a foundation for strategic river restoration planning.

In anticipation for increased funding made possible by the Water Resources Development Act of 2020, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program identified a need to conduct river-wide assessments of floodplain vegetation. In January 2025, we assembled a group of subject matter experts to perform the following tasks:Review Upper Mississippi River Restoration’s current floodplain vegetation research portfolio,Identify important features and goals for long-term floodplain vegetation monitoring,Evaluate the suitability of existing datasets for system-wide vegetation assessments, andDiscuss emerging opportunities to learn about floodplain vegetation dynamics from local-scale restoration and management projects.This document is a summarization of what occurred at the meeting and provides suggested next steps toward developing the capacity to conduct routine long-term monitoring and assessment of floodplain vegetation as part of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program.

Effects of large‐scale flooding on forest composition and structure are a function of flood duration, depth, timing, and frequency. Throughout the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), floods in 1993 and 2019 were record‐setting events followed by high rates of tree mortality. These events generated interest in species adaptations to flood event characteristics and how forest communities have changed in response to large‐scale floods. We investigated associated tree mortality, how the floods differed spatially, and how floodplain forest communities have changed since 1993. Eight UMRS reaches were surveyed in a 1995 study, documenting vegetation species composition, size, and abundance. In 2021, a selection of plots (63%) were revisited and surveyed to quantify 2019 flood effects. For each site, we extracted daily inundation data for flood years and preceding decades from a surface water inundation model. We found post‐flood mortality varied spatially and generally reflected inundation duration patterns. Lower latitude reaches experienced longer inundation durations and greater tree mortality in 1993 than in 2019, while higher latitude reaches experienced similar inundation duration and depth and similar mortality between events. Decadal inundation attributes also differed. During 2009–2018, inundation duration was greater and events occurred later than during 1983–1992 in all reaches. Most forest trajectories were Acer saccharinum ‐dominated and changed relatively little in species composition and structure. The greatest change in composition occurred at plots with high mortality from the 1993 flood, particularly in more flood‐prone locations or where there were many small‐diameter individuals. In plots dominated by either Quercus spp. or Populus deltoides , species importance shifted toward more shade and flood‐tolerant species after 1995 surveys. Self‐replacement of these species may be limited by a change in regeneration conditions resulting from an ongoing inundation regime shift in the case of Quercus spp., or succession to more shade‐tolerant species in the case of Populus communities. Overall, effects on floodplain forests from the two flood events were heterogeneous. In some cases, forest change was likely just as influenced by shifts in flood regime as it was from singular flood events.

Context: Floodplain forests are being transformed by multiple pressures, prompting widespread management and restoration efforts. It is uncertain how disturbances, including hydrologic change, and management actions will interact to influence the ecology of these threatened forests. Objectives: This study examined the effects of alternative management and hydrologic regimes on forest succession at an Upper Mississippi River floodplain site with a restoration project in planning. Methods: We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest succession for 100 years under four hydrogeomorphic management scenarios, three forest management scenarios, and two scenarios of future hydrologic conditions. We evaluated changes in forest biomass and composition over time and assessed the relative importance of management actions and hydrologic change on succession. Results: Forest aboveground biomass decreased in all management-hydrology scenarios, especially in the wetter hydrological scenario. Intensified hydrogeomorphic and forest management scenarios reduced the magnitude and extent of biomass declines; however, they were unable to prevent overall declines in biomass or cause large shifts in tree species composition. Silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) was projected to decrease in biomass, while increases in biomass were projected for several late-successional species including swamp white oak ( Quercus bicolor ). Among the factors influencing variation in biomass, forest management had the largest influence in the first 50 years of our simulations, but hydrological regime became the most important factor by the end of the century. Conclusions: Our simulations indicate that management actions could play an important role in the conservation of floodplain forests, but their effectiveness will likely be limited if recent upward trends in flooding conditions in this system continue in the future. Thus, our results highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of management actions in the face of hydrologic change.

We examined 30-year trends in the abundance and distribution of aquatic and floodplain vegetation, as well as human land uses in five study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River and one reach of the Illinois River using aerial photography collected in years 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Permanently inundated area increased in all study reaches over the 30-year period. Increases ranged from 0.8% of study reach area in Pool 8 (73 ha) to as much as 6.5% of study reach area in Pool 13 (1,562 ha). Agricultural land use declined in the three study reaches where it was common (>35% of reach area). Agricultural declines ranged from 5.8% of reach area in Pool 26 (2,096 ha) to as much as 15.4% of reach area in the Open River reach (7,121 ha) and corresponded with a similar magnitude increase in permanently inundated area and semi-permanently inundated marsh classes. Total forest area declined in the four northern study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Forest loss estimates were on the order of 3.7% of study reach area in Pool 13 (905 ha), 2.1% of Pool 8 (364 ha), and 2.3% of Pool 4 (563 ha). Such losses represent 16.2%, 13.2%, and 10.9% of the total forest area in 1989 in Pools 13, 8 and 4, respectively. Permanently inundated area, wet meadow, shallow marsh vegetation, and mud were the main cover types that replaced forest cover in these reaches. In contrast to the decline in forest cover in the northern reaches, forest cover remained unchanged in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River and increased by 3.5% of study reach area (1,607 ha) in the southern Open River reach of the Mississippi River, mainly in former marsh vegetation and agricultural areas that were acquired by Federal and State agencies. The predominant changes observed across the study system (replacement of agriculture and forest area by permanently inundated area and semi-permanently inundated marsh classes) indicates that hydrological changes have been the main driver of change since 1989 throughout most of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Our study provides an example of changes in a regulated river system driven by regional-scale hydrological changes and local scale restoration actions, changes that could be compared against changes occurring in other large, regulated rivers across the globe.

There are ongoing debates among different stakeholders about which forest and ungulate management strategies will sustain high levels of timber and animal harvest and maintain important ecosystem functions under climate change. Ungulate-forest interactions are complex, including periods where forest regeneration is sensitive to browsing pressure, making it difficult to predict the consequences of a given strategy over time. To aid decision-making, we simulated the impacts of moose browsing on forest succession under 18 different combinations of moose (Alces alces) harvest rate levels and forest management scenarios in a boreal forest landscape in southern Sweden given projected changes in forest growth due to climate change. We found that the current management practices are important for sustaining a moose-forest system. Increasing moose harvest rates led to slightly smaller moose populations, larger estimates of landscape carrying capacity, and less biomass removal of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), a commercially valuable species. However, minor changes in the moose harvest were hardly affecting timber production. Increasing the timber harvest rotation time led to the highest estimates of Scots pine biomass, while thinning younger cohorts lead to the highest estimates of Norway spruce (Picea abies) biomass. These changes came without much effect to moose population dynamics. However, the increased broadleaf production scenario had a very large positive effect on total aboveground live biomass of deciduous species and on landscape carrying capacity and moose density. This scenario subsequently resulted in the greatest estimates of biomass removal of Scots pine, highlighting the tradeoffs associated with increased moose production.

Reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross‐validation, spatial cross‐validation, and spatial cross‐validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.