Bruce E. Shaw

We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which can be particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, unquantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the U.S. Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this article is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early-career scientists and engineers. The article is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see Manuscript Organization section), with the Introduction and the Discussion section providing a stand-alone overview and summary, respectively.

We use the deterministic earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate complex sequences of ruptures on fault systems used for hazard assessment. We show that the source motions combined with a wave propagation code create surface ground motions that fall within the range of epistemic uncertainties for the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 set of empirical models. We show the model is well calibrated where there are good data constraints, and has good correspondence in regions with fewer data constraints. We show magnitude, distance, and mechanism dependence all arising naturally from the same underlying friction. The deterministic physics-based approach provides an opportunity for better understanding the physical origins of ground motions. For example, we find that reduced stress drops in shallow layers relative to constant stress drop with depth lead to peak ground velocities in the near field that better match empirical models. The simulators may also provide better extrapolations into regimes that are poorly empirically constrained by data because physics, rather than surface shaking data parameterizations, is underlying the extrapolations. Having shown the model is credible, we apply it to a problem where observations are lacking. We examine the case of crustal faults above a shallow subduction interface seen to break coseismically in simulations of the New Zealand fault system. These types of events were left out of consideration in the most recent New Zealand national seismic hazard model due to the modeling complexity and lack of observational data to constrain ground-motion models (GMMs). Here, we show that in the model, by breaking up the coseismic crustal and interface rupturing fault motions into two separate subevents, and then recombining the resulting ground-motion measures in a square-root-of-sum-of-squares incoherent manner, we reproduce well the ground-motion measures from the full event rupture. This provides a new method for extrapolating GMMs to more complex multifault ruptures.

We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time-independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic uncertainties. For example, we have improved the representation of multifault ruptures, both in terms of allowing more and less fault connectivity than in the previous models, and in sweeping over a broader range of viable models. An unprecedented level of diagnostic information has been provided for assessing the model, and the development was overseen by a 19-member participatory review panel. Although we believe the new model embodies significant improvements and represents the best available science, we also discuss potential model limitations, including the applicability of logic tree branch weights with respect different types of hazard and risk metrics. Future improvements are also discussed, with deformation model enhancements being particularly worthy of pursuit, as well as better representation of sampling errors in the gridded seismicity components. We also plan to add time-dependent components, and assess implications with a wider range of hazard and risk metrics.

The 2022 revision of Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022) has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this article, we present a subset of many results from the model as well as an overview of the governance, scientific, and review processes followed by the NZ NSHM team. The calculated hazard from the NZ NSHM 2022 has increased for most of New Zealand when compared with the previous models. The NZ NSHM 2022 models and results are available online.

Tsunamis can have devastating consequences for coastal communities. Yet hazards from future tsunamis are difficult to quantify due to their rarity in the instrumental record. Statistical earthquake catalogs have previously been used to quantify tsunami hazards. For the first time, we use a physics‐based synthetic earthquake catalog to assess probabilistic tsunami hazard in a local region. We analyze a 30,000‐year catalog to capture a wide range of the source complexity evident in tsunamigenic earthquakes. We produce models of land‐surface displacements and subsequent tsunamis from 2,585 earthquakes with magnitude > M_W 7.0. Modeled slip of the Hikurangi and Tonga‐Kermadec subduction thrusts generated maximum wave heights at the coast of up to 28 m and these earthquakes pose the greatest tsunami hazard along New Zealand's coastline. The results provide a “proof of concept” for using earthquake simulators for probabilistic tsunami hazard models. They further present a platform upon which next‐generation probabilistic tsunami inundation models may be constructed.

Physics‐based earthquake simulators have been developed to overcome the relatively short duration and incompleteness of historical earthquake and paleoseismic records, respectively. These simulators have the potential to be a useful addition to seismic hazard assessment as they produce millions of synthetic earthquakes over thousands to millions of years using predefined fault geometries and slip rates. Due to the sparsity of fault data and the computational expense of the modeling, it is common to simplify earthquake simulator input parameters. Fault surfaces are typically characterized by simplified mapped traces and constant dip with depth, with slip rates that are often assumed to be uniform over the fault plane. This study uses the well‐defined 3D geometry of an active normal fault in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand, the Cape Egmont Fault, to demonstrate the impact of using nonuniform slip rates and nonplanar fault geometries on the resulting synthetic earthquakes from the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Adopting variable slip rates that decrease to zero along the fault tipline (rather than uniform slip rates) reduces unrealistically high nucleation rates of seismicity along fault edges. Introduction of complex 3D fault geometries, including fault segmentation and bends on kilometer scales, and variable slip rates produces less characteristic earthquake populations, increasing the number of M6‐7 moderate‐large magnitude events. Incorporation of variable fault geometries and slip rates in physics‐based simulators may modify the seismic hazards estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogs.