Ju Jing

We conducted data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the X1.3 flare produced in solar active region 13663 on 2024 May 5, at 11:41 UT. The simulations employed the zero-beta MHD approximation, with initial conditions derived from the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolated from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager vector magnetograms. Anomalous resistivity was applied in the NLFFF to locally enhance magnetic reconnection and create more highly twisted field lines that lead to the eruption. We successfully reproduced the dramatic eruption in the simulations with anomalous resistivity, and found good agreement with Atmospheric Imaging Assembly extreme-ultraviolet observations. The simulation shows that the initially sheared magnetic field lines can evolve into an erupting magnetic flux rope (MFR) through tether-cutting reconnection occurring near either of their footpoints. Furthermore, the direction of the erupting MFR is significantly influenced by the location of enhanced reconnection. This arises from changes in the MFR’s magnetic connectivity, which in turn modify the Lorentz forces acting upon it. This study highlights that subtle details in the flare-triggering process can shape the subsequent evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME), offering valuable insights for future CME modeling and space weather prediction.

Understanding and forecasting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is crucial for protecting infrastructure in the near-Earth space environment and on Earth. In this study, we present a novel fusion model to forecast the geoeffectiveness of CME events. Our model combines convolutional neural networks for feature learning and a prediction network for feature fusion and event classification. The model is trained by observations from instruments including the Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The trained model is then used to predict whether an Earth-reaching CME will cause a geomagnetic storm and/or the probability that the CME will cause such a storm. Experimental results based on a five-fold cross validation scheme demonstrate the good performance of our fusion model, achieving a mean true skill statistic (TSS) score of 0.703 when the model is used as a deterministic prediction tool, and a mean Brier score of 0.095 when the model is used as a probabilistic forecasting tool, where a TSS score of 1 or a Brier score of 0 indicates perfect performance. This work contributes to forecasting the causal relationship between Earth-directed CMEs and geomagnetic storms in solar-terrestrial interactions.

Solar active region 11283 produced an X2.1 flare associated with a solar eruption on 2011 September 6. Observations revealed a preflare sigmoidal structure and a circular flare ribbon surrounding the typical two-ribbon structure, along with remote brightenings located at a considerable distance from the main flare site. To interpret these observations in terms of the dynamics of the three-dimensional coronal magnetic field, we conducted data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic simulations. Using a nonlinear force-free field as the initial condition, we reconstructed a realistic preflare magnetic environment, capturing a sheared sigmoid above the polarity inversion line surmounted by a fan–spine structure. Our simulations revealed that reconnection between the sigmoidal field, the adjacent fan–dome field lines, and the neighboring large loops facilitated the transfer of magnetic twist and led to the formation of a large magnetic flux rope (MFR). This transfer and propagation of twist are clearly visible throughout the MFR. As reconnection progresses, the entire fan–spine structure expands along with the evolving MFR. A notable outcome of the simulation is that the footpoints of the newly formed MFR align closely with the observed circular flare ribbon and the remote brightening region. Our findings suggest that a large MFR formed during the X2.1 flare, providing a coherent explanation for the observed phenomena.

Solar active region 11283 produced an X2.1 flare associated with a solar eruption on September 6, 2011. Observations revealed a preflare sigmoidal structure and a circular flare ribbon surrounding the typical two ribbon structure, along with remote brightenings located at a considerable distance from the main flare site. To interpret these observations in terms of the three dimensional (3D) coronal magnetic field dynamics, we conducted data constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. Using a non linear force free field (NLFFF) as the initial condition, we reconstructed a realistic pre flare magnetic environment, capturing a sheared sigmoid above the polarity inversion line (PIL) surmounted by a fan spine structure. Our simulations revealed that reconnection between the sigmoidal field, the adjacent fan dome field lines, and the neighboring large loops facilitated the transfer of magnetic twist and led to the formation of a large magnetic flux rope (MFR). This transfer and propagation of twist are clearly visible throughout the MFR. As reconnection progresses, the entire fan spine structure expands along with the evolving MFR. A notable outcome of the simulation is that the footpoints of the newly formed MFR align closely with the observed circular flare ribbon and the remote brightening region. Our findings suggest that a large MFR formed during the X2.1 flare, providing a coherent explanation for the observed phenomena.

On 2024 July 25, while observing the solar active region NOAA 13762 with the high-resolution 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we witnessed two mysterious phenomena: the partial detachment of filament strands from its main body in the chromosphere and the sudden disappearance of a sunspot penumbra in the photosphere, the former accompanied by small flares. Our analysis reveals a spatiotemporal correlation between the filament peeling process and the penumbral disappearance. To understand the above observations physically, we performed a magnetohydrodynamic simulation that successfully replicated the disappearance of the penumbra as a consequence of weakened horizontal magnetic field. The simulations demonstrate that both the filament peeling and the penumbral decay are driven by the same underlying process: the upward expansion of the magnetic flux rope induced by null point magnetic reconnection. These results suggest a novel mechanism by which the Sun sheds magnetic flux to interplanetary space in the form of filament peeling and penumbral disappearance.

Active region NOAA 13842 produced two successive solar flares: an X7.1-class flare on 2024 October 1, and an X9.0-class flare on 2024 October 3. This study continues our previous simulation work that successfully reproduced the X7.1-class solar flare. In this study, we performed a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic simulation using the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) as the initial condition to investigate the X9.0-class solar flare. The NLFFF showed the sheared field lines, resulting in the tether-cutting reconnection, the magnetic flux ropes, and eventually led to eruption. The magnetic reconnection during the pre-eruption phase plays a critical role in accelerating the subsequent eruption, which is driven by torus instability and magnetic reconnection. Furthermore, our simulation results are consistent with several observational features associated with the X9.0 flare. This simulation could reproduce diverse phenomena associated with the X9.0 flare, including the tether-cutting reconnection, the flare ribbons and the postflare loops, the transverse field enhancement, and the remote brightening away from the flare ribbons. However, the initial trigger, magnetic flux emergence, was inferred from observations rather than explicitly modeled, and future comprehensive simulations should incorporate this mechanism directly.

Active region NOAA 13842 produced two successive solar flares: an X7.1-class flare on October 1, 2024, and an X9.0-class flare on October 3, 2024. This study continues our previous simulation work that successfully reproduced the X7.1-class solar flare (Matsumoto et al. 2025). In this study, we performed a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation using the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) as the initial condition to investigate the X9.0-class solar flare. The NLFFF showed the sheared field lines, resulting in the tether-cutting reconnection, the magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), and eventually led to eruption. The magnetic reconnection during the pre-eruption phase plays a critical role in accelerating the subsequent eruption, which is driven by torus instability and magnetic reconnection. Furthermore, our simulation results are consistent with several observational features associated with the X9.0 flare. This simulation could reproduce diverse phenomena associated with the X9.0 flare, including the tether-cutting reconnection, the flare ribbons and the flare loops, the transverse field enhancement, and the remote brightening away from the flare ribbons. However, the initial trigger, magnetic flux emergence, was inferred from observations rather than explicitly modeled, and future comprehensive simulations should incorporate this mechanism directly.

Despite decades of research, the fundamental processes involved in the initiation and acceleration of solar eruptions remain not fully understood, making them long-standing and challenging problems in solar physics. Recent high-resolution observations by the Goode Solar Telescope have revealed small-scale magnetic flux emergence in localized regions of solar active areas prior to eruptions. Although much smaller in size than the entire active region, these emerging fluxes reached strengths of up to 2000 G. To investigate their impact, we performed data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We find that while the small-scale emerging flux does not significantly alter the preeruption evolution, it dramatically accelerates the eruption during the main phase by enhancing the growth of torus instability, which emerges in the nonlinear stage. This enhancement occurs independently of the decay index profile. Our analysis indicates that even subtle differences in the preeruption evolution can strongly influence the subsequent dynamics, suggesting that small-scale emerging flux can play a critical role in accelerating solar eruptions.

Despite decades of research, the fundamental processes involved in the initiation and acceleration of solar eruptions remain not fully understood, making them long-standing and challenging problems in solar physics. Recent high-resolution observations by the Goode Solar Telescope have revealed small-scale magnetic flux emergence in localized regions of solar active areas prior to eruptions. Although much smaller in size than the entire active region, these emerging fluxes reached strengths of up to 2000 G. To investigate their impact, we performed data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. We find that while the small-scale emerging flux does not significantly alter the pre-eruption evolution, it dramatically accelerates the eruption during the main phase by enhancing the growth of torus instability, which emerges in the nonlinear stage. This enhancement occurs independently of the decay index profile. Our analysis indicates that even subtle differences in the pre-eruption evolution can strongly influence the subsequent dynamics, suggesting that small-scale emerging flux can play a critical role in accelerating solar eruptions.

We investigated the initiation and the evolution of an X7.1-class solar flare observed in NOAA Active Region 13842 on 2024 October 1, based on a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. The nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolated from the photospheric magnetic field about 1 hr before the flare was used as the initial condition for the MHD simulations. The NLFFF reproduces highly sheared field lines that undergo tether-cutting reconnection in the MHD simulation, leading to the formation of a highly twisted magnetic flux rope (MFR), which then erupts rapidly, driven by both torus instability and magnetic reconnection. This paper focuses on the dynamics of the MFR and its role in eruptions. We find that magnetic reconnection in the preeruption phase is crucial in the subsequent eruption driven by the torus instability. Furthermore, our simulation indicates that magnetic reconnection also directly enhances the torus instability. These results suggest that magnetic reconnection is not just a by-product of the eruption due to reconnecting of postflare arcade, but also plays a significant role in accelerating the MFR during the eruption.