Nicholas Holyoak

A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Waste is a symbol of inefficiency in modern society and represents misallocated resources. This paper outlines an on-going interdisciplinary research project entitled “Integrated ETWW demand forecasting and scenario planning for low-carbon precincts” and reports on first findings and a literature review. This large multi-stakeholder research project develops a shared platform for integrated ETWW (energy, transport, waste and water) planning in a low-carbon urban future, focusing on synergies and alternative approaches to urban planning. The aim of the project is to develop a holistic integrated software tool for demand forecasting and scenario evaluation for residential precincts, covering the four domains, ETWW, using identified commonalities in data requirements and model formulation. The authors of this paper are overseeing the waste domain. A major component of the project will be developing a method for including the impacts of household behavior change in demand forecasting, as well as assessing the overall carbon impacts of urban developments or redevelopments of existing precincts. The resulting tool will allow urban planners, municipalities and developers to assess the future total demands for energy, transport, waste and water whilst in the planning phase. The tool will also help to assess waste management performance and materials flow in relation to energy and water consumption and travel behavior, supporting the design and management of urban systems in different city contexts.

Peak period traffic congestion is a problem faced by many urban areas around the world as the supply of transport infrastructure struggles to keep...

Road transport networks that exist within Eastern Asia are experiencing ever-increasing levels of demand due to rapid population growth within the region. This is especially so for interregional travel because of a continuous dispersion of the population as it expands. Within Hong Kong, new transport infrastructure is required to cater to the demands emerging from growth and decentralization of the population distribution. Initiatives such as park-and-ride schemes can assist transport networks to operate more efficiently and are worthy of assessment as a demand management technique for inclusion in the future transit system. As a result of a comprehensive survey conducted on a trial park-and-ride facility in Hong Kong, lessons have been learned for the implementation of future schemes within Hong Kong and Eastern Asia. This paper provides a description of the data assembled as a result of the survey, and it identifies reasons and factors contributing to the success of the park-and-ride facility in Hong Kong.