Simon Feeny

While it is widely accepted that poverty is multidimensional, debates over how it is best measured continue. This paper examines whether different measurements of poverty provide different implications from a policy perspective. Using probit models applied to household level data it examines the correlates of both income poverty and multidimensional poverty in the context of Sri Lanka. Results suggest that the two measures of poverty share many of the same correlates. Age of the household head, education, marital status, employment, access to agricultural land and the receipt of remittances are important across the two poverty measures. However, there are important differences with respect to the signs of the coefficients on household size and ethnicity variables. Further, the magnitude of the associations of independent variables with poverty vary considerably across the two measures. Policy recommendations are provided.

The United Nations’ Human Development Index remains a widely used and accepted measure of human development. Although it has been revised over the years to address various critiques, a remaining concern is the way the three dimensions are aggregated into the single index. A deterioration in one dimension can be compensated for by an improvement in another. Since compensability is inextricably linked with trade-offs and intensity of preferences, a non-compensatory (i.e., Condorcet) approach to aggregation is employed in this paper. Although non-compensatory approaches have been employed previously, this paper adds to the literature by undertaking an application of the Condorcet approach to the entire HDI. This approach, which does not use intensities of preferences, ensures that the degree of compensability connected with the aggregation model is at the minimum possible level. To achieve this, country level rankings are then compared to those for the 2020 Human Development Index which aggregates dimensions using a geometric mean. The findings demonstrated substantial changes in rank-order between the HDI and Condorcet approach. This outcome provides empirical evidence which demonstrates that the non-compensatory Condorcet approach can mitigate issues of compensation present within the geometric aggregation technique currently employed by the HDI. These findings have potential implications in aiding the identification and employment of potential policy priorities—specifically, the notion that policy should emphasise the development of a country as opposed to economic growth alone.

The objective of this paper is to develop a prescriptive model for the inter‐country allocation of aid for COVID‐19 support. Aid allocations are increasing functions of three dimensions of need: (i) hazard and exposure to COVID‐19; (ii) vulnerability to COVID‐19 impacts; and (iii) the capacity to cope, subject to an aid budget constraint. COVID‐19 support from official donors to all ODA eligible countries is modeled. Aid allocations for COVID‐19 support prescribed by the model are compared to actual allocations in 2020. Findings from the main model suggest that low‐income countries are over‐represented among the countries that should have received a greater share of the aid for COVID‐19 support. Middle‐income countries tended to receive more donor support for COVID‐19 than amounts suggested by the model. The choice of weights assigned to the dimensions of need is arbitrary but findings are broadly consistent with respect to the use of different weights, alternative measures of support and changes to other parameters of the model. It is recommended that the donor community commit to a transparent needs‐based funding formula when addressing a global pandemic.

At a subnational level, studies typically find that embedded or local leaders are better at providing public goods relative to leaders appointed from other areas. This paper tests whether this finding holds in the context of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. Specifically, it examines the impact of a cadre transfer policy whereby the central government assigns (nonresident) officials to provincial leadership positions rather than them being elected locally. Using data covering the period 2005–2017, changes in the development of provinces led by local (embedded) leaders versus nonlocal leaders are compared. Provincial development is measured using the incidence of headcount poverty as well as “vegetation” and “build‐up” indices constructed using satellite data. Using fixed‐effects modeling, findings suggest that improved provincial development is associated with nonlocal leaders. This finding is in contrast to those of existing studies including those examining embeddedness in other authoritarian states.

This paper examines the correlates of optimism bias and its impact on World Bank project performance. We measure optimism bias in different ways using estimated Economic Rates of Return (ERR) of projects at approval and closure. We examine over 2,800 World Bank projects that were appraised between 1960 and 2019. We find that approximately 60% of projects in the sample were prone to optimism bias. Correlates of optimism bias include both project and country characteristics. Findings also indicate that the incidence of optimism bias reduces the chance of a satisfactory project performance rate at the time of evaluation by 17–20%. Recommendations include embracing complexity and uncertainty in considering projects for approval, providing organizational incentives for ensuring projects are successful rather than ERRs being accurate, shifting some resources from appraisal to implementation, and changing the nature of project supervision.

The determinants of large-scale conflict have been examined extensively in the academic literature. The factors contributing to everyday violence have received less attention despite this smaller-scale conflict having a high human and economic cost. We analyse a dataset at the level of 495 Indonesian districts to estimate the determinants of non-domestic, small-scale violence prevalent in this nation. We focus on the role of pronounced cultural heterogeneity that characterizes Indonesia and contribute to the literature by empirically testing whether established conflict theory holds for smaller scale violence data in the case of Indonesia. Ethnic polarization (rather than fractionalization) is the main driver of conflict intensity, suggesting that district-level conflicts are commonly over public goods. Cultural heterogeneity has a curvilinear effect on conflict. It increases the intensity of violence up to a point, after which the level decreases. Overall, our results offer some support for the Esteban and Ray model of conflict.