Emilio Parrado-Hernández

Background The approach to patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) remains controversial. We aim to develop an algorithm to predict ibuprofen treatment failure (TF) using machine learning (ML) techniques. Methods Secondary analysis of a trial of very preterm infants receiving intravenous ibuprofen to treat PDA. A predictive model on TF was developed with ML. The impact of TF on outcomes was analyzed. Results One hundred forty-six infants were included. ML techniques showed that a logistic regression model predicted TF with an AUC 0.65. A multiple regression model found that bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) was associated with TF, p = 0.03. Other neonatal outcomes did not differ between the study groups. Conclusions It is feasible to build a predictive model of ibuprofen TF with ML that could assist clinicians during the PDA treatment decision-making process. The identification of responders prior to intervention would mitigate adverse effects in non-responders, providing them with an alternative approach.

Adaptive learning is necessary for nonstationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data and with the lowest possible computational cost for online parameter updating. Existing solutions only partially cover these needs. Here, we propose the first adaptive sparse Gaussian process (GP) able to address all these issues. We first reformulate a variational sparse GP (VSGP) algorithm to make it adaptive through a forgetting factor. Next, to make the model inference as simple as possible, we propose updating a single inducing point of the SGP model together with the remaining model parameters every time a new sample arrives. As a result, the algorithm presents a fast convergence of the inference process, which allows an efficient model update (with a single inference iteration) even in highly nonstationary environments. Experimental results demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed algorithm and its good performance in modeling the predictive posterior in mean and confidence interval estimation compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

A learning method is self-certified if it uses all available data to simultaneously learn a predictor and certify its quality with a tight statistical certificate that is valid on unseen data. Recent work has shown that neural network models trained by optimising PAC-Bayes bounds lead not only to accurate predictors, but also to tight risk certificates, bearing promise towards achieving self-certified learning. In this context, learning and certification strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds are especially attractive due to their ability to leverage all data to learn a posterior and simultaneously certify its risk with a tight numerical certificate. In this paper, we assess the progress towards self-certification in probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives. We empirically compare (on 4 classification datasets) classical test set bounds for deterministic predictors and a PAC-Bayes bound for randomised self-certified predictors. We first show that both of these generalisation bounds are not too far from out-of-sample test set errors. We then show that in data starvation regimes, holding out data for the test set bounds adversely affects generalisation performance, while self-certified strategies based on PAC-Bayes bounds do not suffer from this drawback, proving that they might be a suitable choice for the small data regime. We also find that probabilistic neural networks learnt by PAC-Bayes inspired objectives lead to certificates that can be surprisingly competitive with commonly used test set bounds.

The measurement of partial discharge (PD) signals in the radio frequency (RF) range has gained popularity among utilities and specialized monitoring companies in recent years. Unfortunately, in most of the occasions the data are hidden by noise and coupled interferences that hinder their interpretation and renders them useless especially in acquisition systems in the ultra high frequency (UHF) band where the signals of interest are weak. This paper is focused on a method that uses a selective spectral signal characterization to feature each signal, type of partial discharge or interferences/noise, with the power contained in the most representative frequency bands. The technique can be considered as a dimensionality reduction problem where all the energy information contained in the frequency components is condensed in a reduced number of UHF or high frequency (HF) and very high frequency (VHF) bands. In general, dimensionality reduction methods make the interpretation of results a difficult task because the inherent physical nature of the signal is lost in the process. The proposed selective spectral characterization is a preprocessing tool that facilitates further main processing. The starting point is a clustering of signals that could form the core of a PD monitoring system. Therefore, the dimensionality reduction technique should discover the best frequency bands to enhance the affinity between signals in the same cluster and the differences between signals in different clusters. This is done maximizing the minimum Mahalanobis distance between clusters using particle swarm optimization (PSO). The tool is tested with three sets of experimental signals to demonstrate its capabilities in separating noise and PDs with low signal-to-noise ratio and separating different types of partial discharges measured in the UHF and HF/VHF bands.

This paper presents a system for the detection of partial discharges (PD) in industrial applications based on One Class Support Vector Machines (OCSVM). The study stresses the detection of Partial Discharges (PD) as they represent a major source of information related to degradation in the equipment. PD measurement is a widely extended technique for condition monitoring of electrical machines and power cables to avoid catastrophic failures and the consequent blackouts. One of the most important keystones in the interpretation of partial discharges is their separation from other signals considered as not-PD especially in low SNR measurements. In this sense, the OCSVM is an interesting alternative to binary SVMs since it does not need a training set with examples of all the output classes correctly labelled. On the contrary, the OCSVM learns a model of the signals acquired when the equipment is in PD-free mode, defined as a state where no degradation mechanism is active, so one only needs to make sure that the training signals were recorded under this setting. These default mode signals are easier to characterize and acquire in industrial environments than PD and lead to more robust detectors that practically do not need domain adaptation to perform in scenarios prone to different types of PD. In fact, the experimental results show that the performance of the OCSVM is comparable to that achieved by a binary SVM trained using both noise and PD pulses. Finally, the method is successfully applied to a more realistic scenario involving the detection of PD in a damaged distribution power cable.

The measurement of the emitted electromagnetic energy in the UHF region of the spectrum allows the detection of partial discharges and, thus, the on-line monitoring of the condition of the insulation of electrical equipment. Unfortunately, determining the affected asset is difficult when there are several simultaneous insulation defects. This paper proposes the use of an independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm to separate the signals coming from different partial discharge (PD) sources. The performance of the algorithm has been tested using UHF signals generated by test objects. The results are validated by two automatic classification techniques: support vector machines and similarity with class mean. Both methods corroborate the suitability of the algorithm to separate the signals emitted by each PD source even when they are generated by the same type of insulation defect.

This paper evaluates the capabilities of model-based distances between time series to identify the musical genre of songs. In contrast with standard approaches, this kind of metrics can take into account the structure of the songs by modeling the dynamics of the parameter sequences. We tackle the problem from a non-supervised and from a supervised perspective, in order to point out the usefulness of dynamic-based distances. Experiments on a real-world dataset containing genres with different degrees of a priori overlapping give insights about the discriminant capabilities of these distances.