Jungho Baek

This study examines how structural shocks in the oil market, geopolitical risk, and exchange-rate fluctuations affect energy security in Korea, Japan, Canada, and Norway. Energy security is measured by external oil dependence, defined as net oil imports relative to domestic oil consumption. Structural oil shocks are identified using the global oil market SVAR framework of Kilian (2009), and their effects are evaluated with country-specific ARDL models. The results reveal substantial differences between oil-importing and oil-exporting economies. In the long run, structural oil shocks primarily affect Korea and Japan, whereas their effects are generally weaker in Canada and Norway. Short-run results indicate broader responses to oil market disturbances, with oil-specific demand shocks showing the most systematic cross-country pattern. Geopolitical risk and exchange-rate fluctuations also influence energy security, though their effects vary across countries. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of both the source of oil market shocks and a country's position in global energy markets in shaping energy security outcomes.

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This study examines how structural oil‐market shocks affect exchange rates through the real and financial adjustment mechanisms proposed by Krugman (1983). Using a two‐stage SVAR–ARDL/NARDL framework, we identify oil supply, aggregate demand, and oil‐specific demand shocks and estimate their symmetric and asymmetric effects for oil‐importing economies (Korea and Japan) and oil‐exporting petro‐currency economies (Canada and Norway). The results reveal pronounced cross‐country heterogeneity. Aggregate demand shocks generate persistent depreciation for oil importers and sustained appreciation for oil exporters, with the effects rapidly reflected in exchange rates. Oil supply shocks do not exhibit a common adjustment pattern across countries, highlighting the importance of country‐specific financial and institutional structures. Oil‐specific demand shocks are economically meaningful for oil‐importing economies but produce divergent responses across Korea and Japan. Nonlinear long‐run adjustment is concentrated in Japan and Norway and is driven primarily by oil supply and oil‐specific demand shocks, whereas Korea and Canada exhibit largely linear responses. Overall, the findings provide modern empirical support for Krugman's real–financial adjustment framework.

This study examines the relationship between graduate programs offered and graduate student enrollment in online programs at public four-year U.S. universities using data reported in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) from Academic Years 2012 to 2023. Public universities are facing increased fiscal pressure and are making strategic decisions on what academic programs are likely to increase enrollment. A statistically significant correlation drawn from descriptive data is noted between the increase in online graduate programs offered at public four-year institutions and the number of graduate students enrolled in online programs. Additionally, the proportion of online graduate students enrolled in public four-year institutions within their state of residence remains relatively constant at a rate of 44 in-state students for every increase of 100 online learners, despite significant variance in overall online enrollment. A discrepancy is noted between the ratio of enrolled graduate students per available academic program between fully in-person and fully online programs at public four-year institutions, suggesting an opportunity for public four-year institutions to successfully develop online graduate programs that would lead to increased enrollment. Additional research is recommended to explore each finding in greater detail, to include expanding the study from a primarily descriptive to inferential analysis. Keywords: graduate programs, enrollment, distance learning, public university, adult learners, higher education

We examine the relationship between monetary intervention and the volatility of relative prices. Using Producer Price Indices for farm products and industrial commodities, we analyze how monetary shocks and movements in these indices influence the weighted average volatility of commodity price components. We find that monetary expansion systematically increases average price volatility across commodity categories. We find that monetary expansion create non-neutral effects on relative prices, especially with regard to their distance from the sale of final goods and services. We find that monetary expansion is, thus, non-neutral with respect to its impact on relative prices. The consistency of these findings suggests that a capital theory that integrates relative prices into analysis provides a helpful lens for interfacing applied economic analysis with macroeconomic theory. The authors express appreciation for feedback from Cameron Harwick. All errors herein are our own.

This study examines the asymmetric effects of crude oil price fluctuations on air travel demand, a key determinant of airline operating expenses and fare pricing. Despite its significance, the asymmetric impacts of different oil price shocks on air travel demand in Korea remain unexplored. Employing a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, we analyze the effects of oil supply, aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks on the air travel demand of Korean Air (KAL) and Asiana Airlines. Using data from 2000 to 2022, our analysis reveals that oil supply shocks have a negligible influence, while aggregate and oil-specific demand shocks significantly impact air travel demand over both short and long-term horizons. Long-term asymmetries are particularly evident in responses to oil supply and oil-specific demand shocks across both airlines. These results underscore the importance of accounting for the distinct components and asymmetric effects of oil price shocks, alongside airline-specific data, to accurately assess air travel demand dynamics in Korea. This study contributes to the literature by offering deeper insights into the economic implications of oil shocks and providing actionable strategies for policymakers and industry leaders to enhance the resilience of the aviation sector.

Our investigations reveal that macroeconomic variables associated with income and exchange rates, commonly included in empirical analyses of Korea's trade balance, remain crucial for explaining Korea's trade flows. This study presents the most comprehensive investigation thus far into the connection between macroeconomic factors and Korea's trade balance with the G-7 countries. It integrates insights from four primary economic theories—elasticity, Keynesian income, absorption, and the monetary approach. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we examine the short- and long-term effects of variables such as income, exchange rates, government spending, and interest rates on Korea's bilateral trade flows, specifically emphasizing exports and imports. Our findings validate the persistent significance of income and exchange rates in shaping the trade balance, which is consistent with previous research. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the significant yet varied impacts of government spending and interest rates—factors that have not been studied before—across different trade patterns and timeframes. Particularly, Korean exports to the G-7 nations are notably influenced by changes in government spending and interest rates. In contrast, imports exhibit more pronounced reactions to these variables in the short term than in the long term. This analysis enriches our understanding of the macroeconomic drivers behind Korea's trade balance and provides valuable insights for policy development. JEL Classification: C22, F14, O50

This research explores the effects of various oil shocks—supply, aggregate demand, and oil‐specific demand—on the demand for air passenger and freight services in South Korea and Japan. Employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, it analyzes data from 2000 to 2022. The findings indicate that different oil shocks, especially two types of demand shocks, substantially impact air travel demand in these countries. The study also points out the significant roles economic growth and exchange rates play. These outcomes highlight the critical need to integrate oil price dynamics into air travel demand models, considering the specific economic contexts of South Korea and Japan. The study concludes by offering policy recommendations to mitigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on air travel, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies within the aviation industry to manage these changes effectively.

This research examines the short‐ and long‐term impacts of macroeconomic variables, such as real income levels and exchange rates, on Korea's trade flows with China, focusing on 33 specific commodity groups. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology, this study incorporates oil‐related factors – namely crude oil prices and their volatility – into traditional export and import models. The results demonstrate that real income levels in Korea and China considerably influence trade dynamics, affecting exports and imports across various periods. The bilateral exchange rate has a significant impact, with its effects being more pronounced on exports in the long term and imports in the short term. Furthermore, the research highlights that crude oil prices and their volatility significantly, yet varied, affect trade flows, contingent on the trade's nature and duration. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in understanding the recent shifts in Korea's trade balance with China and in formulating economic and trade strategies to manage fluctuations in the trade balance.

This study introduces a novel approach by utilising both structural VAR and nonlinear ARDL methods to investigate the short‐ and long‐term asymmetric effects of different oil shocks—oil supply, aggregate demand and oil‐specific demand shocks—on the exchange rates of six Arctic nations: Canada, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Russia and Sweden, over the period from January 1994 to December 2022. Our findings indicate that oil‐specific demand shocks have a substantial impact on exchange rates in both the short‐ and long‐term, while oil supply and aggregate demand shocks have minimal effects on currency fluctuations. Importantly, our analysis reveals new evidence of long‐term asymmetry in the influence of oil shocks on exchange rates in these Arctic economies, with asymmetric effects mainly manifesting over the long‐term. Thus, our research enriches our understanding of the distinct impacts of different oil price shocks on exchange rates, especially within the relatively unexplored context of Arctic economies.