Kun Guo

Volatility in global energy markets underscores the need to examine how different forms of uncertainty affect expert oil price forecasts. This study investigates how macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty influence expert forecast disagreement in crude oil markets, where experts are drawn from the European Central Bank's (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The experimental results show that macroeconomic and financial uncertainty amplify disagreement, whereas geopolitical uncertainty acts in the opposite direction, with globalization playing a moderating role. Furthermore, attention allocation and herding behavior play important roles in shaping disagreement: forecasters with greater attention to recent information exhibit higher disagreement, whereas those exhibiting herding behavior toward consensus forecasts show significantly reduced disagreement. Finally, we empirically confirm overconfidence among forecasters, manifested in excessive reliance on private information, and demonstrate that overconfidence plays a crucial mediating role in transmitting uncertainty effects to forecast disagreement. By distinguishing the effects of multiple uncertainty dimensions, this study provides critical insights into forecasting behavior in oil markets under uncertainty.

Amid the growing challenges of energy security and carbon neutrality, green finance has become an important policy instrument for promoting sustainable energy transitions. Using city-level data from China between 2009 and 2019 and a spatial Durbin model, this study not only examines local effects but also focuses on identifying the geographic and administrative boundaries of their spatial spillovers. The analysis reveals that green finance advances energy transition via fostering green innovation and optimizing industrial structures, with stronger effects in regions where public environmental awareness is higher. Pronounced regional heterogeneity is identified, as resource-abundant and economically developed cities respond more strongly to green finance. Furthermore, green finance generates positive spatial spillovers, improving the energy transition of neighboring cities within a 400 km radius, although these effects are weakened by interprovincial competition. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of regionally differentiated and coordinated green finance policies in supporting effective energy transitions.

With the advancement of the global energy transition and the intensification of global geopolitical uncertainties, technological competition in the energy sector has become a key area in the great power competition. This study constructs a logical framework for energy technology competition and reveals the new trends in current technological competition in the energy sector. On this basis, this study systematically analyzes the three main types of risks that China faces in energy technology competition and further proposes corresponding countermeasures. China must continuously enhance the core competitiveness and institutional voice over energy technology to achieve the strategic goals of energy security and energy technology autonomy.

Biodiversity finance has emerged as a critical interdisciplinary field that mobilizes and deploys financial resources to address the accelerating loss of biological diversity and the resulting economic risks. This review explores the foundational theories related to biodiversity finance and synthesizes empirical findings in several related fields: (1) biodiversity risks across equity, debt, and banking sectors; (2) the effectiveness and scalability of private, public, and philanthropic capital structures; (3) advances in data measurement and disclosure practices; and (4) the behavioral responses to biodiversity risk from both investors and corporations. Accordingly, we propose future research agendas based on the contemporary research progress. By consolidating current insights and identifying critical gaps, this review aims to guide studies in advancing biodiversity finance to secure both ecological integrity and long‐term economic stability.