Robert Johnson

Post-processing in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is essential for transforming raw model outputs into forecasts that are both accurate and actionable. This study investigates a dynamic weighting approach for multi-model blending, in which the contribution of each model is adjusted in real time based on recent performance, using root mean square error (RMSE) as a skill metric. We benchmark this approach against three baseline approaches: equal weighting, optimised static weighting and spatially static weighting derived from a training period. Experiments are conducted using deterministic and ensemble model outputs from two global NWP systems (Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) over two seasonal periods and are verified against both gridded analyses and surface station observations. Results show that dynamic weighting consistently improves forecast skill relative to both equal and static weighting approaches, particularly at longer lead times, and closely matches the performance of the operational Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s calibrated and bias-corrected IMPROVER products, even though the experiments presented here omit the bias-correction and calibration stages applied operationally. This suggests that adaptive performance-based weighting alone can recover a substantial fraction of the skill typically attributed to more complex post-processing.

The equatorial Pacific is the largest oceanic source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. This outgassing varies depending on the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and decadal climate variability. New production, the amount of phytoplankton net primary production driven by upwelled nitrate, plays a significant role in modulating air‐sea CO₂ fluxes as the biological carbon pump removes carbon from the surface ocean. We aim to understand how the physical drivers of sea surface temperature and wind speed influence interannual and decadal variability of the equatorial Pacific carbon cycle. In the equatorial Pacific, there are three biogeochemical regimes: the upwelling cold tongue east of 140°W and south of the equator (3°N–15°S); the eastern Pacific warm pool north of the equator (3°–15°N); and the 28.5°C western Pacific warm pool, west of 140°W. We find that between 2000 and 2020, air‐sea CO₂ flux and ΔpCO₂ increased in the cold tongue (45 mmolC m⁻² yr⁻², 1.5 μatm yr⁻¹, respectively) but decreased elsewhere, while new production decreased everywhere. The western Pacific occasionally became a weak carbon sink, depending on ENSO and this sink was strongest at 165°E during central Pacific “Modoki” El Niño events. We find that changes in wind speed, temperature and ENSO frequency have altered the surface carbon budget. The mean basin‐wide (150°E−90°W and 15°N–15°S) new production for 2000–2020 was 1.2 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹ and air‐sea CO₂ flux was 0.5 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹. New production decreased at −7.7 ± 1.6 TgC yr⁻², compared to the CO₂ flux trend of −1.7 ± 1.4 TgC yr⁻².

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are a key component of the Antarctic food web with considerable lipid reserves that are vital for their health and higher predator survival. Krill lipids are primarily derived from their diet of plankton, in particular diatoms and flagellates. Few attempts have been made to link the spatial and temporal variations in krill lipids to those in their food supply. Remotely-sensed environmental parameters provide large-scale information on the potential availability of krill food, although relating this to physiological and biochemical differences has only been performed on small scales and with limited samples. Our study utilised remotely-sensed data (chlorophyllaand sea surface temperature) coupled with krill lipid data obtained from 3 years of fishery-derived samples. We examined within and between year variation of trends in both the environment and krill biochemistry data. Chlorophyllalevels were positively related to krill lipid levels, particularly triacylglycerol. Plankton fatty acid biomarkers analysed in krill (such as n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) increased with decreasing sea surface temperature and increasing chlorophyllalevels. Our study demonstrates the utility of combining remote-sensing and biochemical data in examining biological and physiological relationships between Antarctic krill and the Southern Ocean environment.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is a globally significant region of climate‐driven biogeochemical variability. Satellite ocean color algorithms have been used for over 20 years, providing a substantial historical record of global ocean chlorophyll‐a variability. Current chlorophyll algorithms perform better in the tropical Pacific than for the globe. Nevertheless, improvements can be made to produce a robust historical record of chlorophyll variability, which is essential to accurately identify ocean‐atmosphere carbon fluxes and long‐term trends in ocean productivity. We use a large in situ chlorophyll database to tune empirical ocean color algorithms to reduce bias in the equatorial Pacific. Traditional band ratio chlorophyll algorithms (OCx) perform adequately but exhibit errors at low chlorophyll concentrations. A new algorithm, the Ocean Color Index (OCI; Hu et al., 2012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007395), is more effective at calculating low chlorophyll concentrations in the mesotrophic tropical Pacific Ocean. Existing ocean color algorithms underestimate tropical Pacific chlorophyll by 5.8%, 14%, and 2% for three satellite ocean color sensors: SeaWiFS, MODIS‐Aqua, and MERIS. In this paper, we develop regionally tuned sensor‐specific coefficients and blending windows between the OCI to OCx algorithms to reduce systematic biases in the tropical Pacific. We assess cross‐sensor consistency to produce robust 21‐year time series trends. These updated estimates increase chlorophyll concentrations in open water and decrease around island and warm‐pool regions, with implications for our understanding of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation driven carbon fluxes and net primary productivity.

This review represents the Southern Ocean community’s satellite data needs for the coming decade. Developed through widespread engagement and incorporating perspectives from a range of stakeholders (both research and operational), it is designed as an important community-driven strategy paper that provides the rationale and information required for future planning and investment. The Southern Ocean is vast but globally connected, and the communities that require satellite-derived data in the region are diverse. This review includes many observable variables, including sea ice properties, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, atmospheric parameters, marine biology (both micro and macro) and related activities, terrestrial cryospheric connections, sea surface salinity, and a discussion of coincident andin situdata collection. Recommendations include commitment to data continuity, increases in particular capabilities (sensor types, spatial, temporal), improvements in dissemination of data/products/uncertainties, and innovation in calibration/validation capabilities. Full recommendations are detailed by variable as well as summarized. This review provides a starting point for scientists to understand more about Southern Ocean processes and their global roles, for funders to understand the desires of the community, for commercial operators to safely conduct their activities in the Southern Ocean, and for space agencies to gain greater impact from Southern Ocean-related acquisitions and missions.

Aerosol observations above the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice are scarce. Measurements of aerosols and atmospheric composition were made in East Antarctic pack ice on board the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis during the spring of 2012. One particle formation event was observed during the 32 days of observations. This event occurred on the only day to exhibit extended periods of global irradiance in excess of 600 W m⁻². Within the single air mass influencing the measurements, number concentrations of particles larger than 3 nm (CN₃) reached almost 7700 cm⁻³ within a few hours of clouds clearing, and grew at rates of 5.6 nm h⁻¹. Formation rates of 3 nm particles were in the range of those measured at other Antarctic locations at 0.2–1.1 ± 0.1 cm⁻³ s⁻¹. Our investigations into the nucleation chemistry found that there were insufficient precursor concentrations for known halogen or organic chemistry to explain the nucleation event. Modelling studies utilising known sulfuric acid nucleation schemes could not simultaneously reproduce both particle formation or growth rates. Surprising correlations with total gaseous mercury (TGM) were found that, together with other data, suggest a mercury-driven photochemical nucleation mechanism may be responsible for aerosol nucleation. Given the very low vapour pressures of the mercury species involved, this nucleation chemistry is likely only possible where pre-existing aerosol concentrations are low and both TGM concentrations and solar radiation levels are relatively high (∼ 1.5 ng m⁻³ and ≥ 600 W m⁻², respectively), such as those observed in the Antarctic sea ice boundary layer in this study or in the global free troposphere, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.

All photosynthetic organisms endeavor to balance energy supply with demand. For sea‐ice diatoms, as with all marine photoautotrophs, light is the most important factor for determining growth and carbon‐fixation rates. Light varies from extremely low to often relatively high irradiances within the sea‐ice environment, meaning that sea‐ice algae require moderate physiological plasticity that is necessary for rapid light acclimation and photoprotection. This study investigated photoprotective mechanisms employed by bottom Antarctic sea‐ice algae in response to relatively high irradiances to understand how they acclimate to the environmental conditions presented during early spring, as the light climate begins to intensify and snow and sea‐ice thinning commences. The sea‐ice microalgae displayed high photosynthetic plasticity to increased irradiance, with a rapid decline in photochemical efficiency that was completely reversible when placed under low light. Similarly, the photoprotective xanthophyll pigment diatoxanthin (Dt) was immediately activated but reversed during recovery under low light. The xanthophyll inhibitor dithiothreitol (DTT) and state transition inhibitor sodium fluoride (NaF) were used in under‐ice in situ incubations and revealed that nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) via xanthophyll‐cycle activation was the preferred method for light acclimation and photoprotection by bottom sea‐ice algae. This study showed that bottom sea‐ice algae from the east Antarctic possess a high level of plasticity in their light‐acclimation capabilities and identified the xanthophyll cycle as a critical mechanism in photoprotection and the preferred means by which sea‐ice diatoms regulate energy flow to PSII.