Thomas Robinson

We investigate a scaling relationship between global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and the latitude of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in simulations performed with a 50‐km‐resolution aquaplanet version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 4.0. The simulations use fixed, zonally symmetric sea surface temperature distributions, including some with uniform warming and cooling perturbations. We find that TC frequency per unit area is proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the ITCZ, following the same scaling introduced in a previous study. We hypothesize that TCs in these simulations originate as precursor disturbances at the ITCZ and intensify into TCs upon reaching sufficiently warm SSTs. We test this interpretation by tracking TC precursors, with different methods based on precipitation and vorticity, and comparing TC precursor frequency with TC frequency and ITCZ latitude. Both tracking methods show that precursors predominantly originate around the poleward edge of the ITCZ, consistent with our hypothesized TC genesis pathway. We also verify that most TC genesis events are immediately preceded by the occurrence of a precursor in the same area. However, precursor frequency is only weakly correlated with the Coriolis parameter at the ITCZ and precursor frequency. The correlation is stronger for vorticity‐based precursors than for precipitation‐based precursors. These mixed results provide partial, but not complete, support for our hypothesized interpretation. They also illustrate how results can depend on the choice of precursor tracking scheme, underlining a need for improved understanding of how best to define and track TC precursors.

We performed a series of aquaplanet simulations at the horizontal resolution from 50 to 6 km with identical parameterization settings using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4 implemented with the two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysics with prognostic precipitation (GFDL AM4‐MG2). At the finer resolution, the global mean resolved‐scale precipitation increases and that from cumulus parameterization decreases. The model also simulates less/thinner clouds over the low latitudes and more/thicker clouds over the high latitudes as the resolution increases. The precipitation over the deep tropics is investigated in detail. We find little resolution sensitivity in the daily mean precipitation extremes. Changes of the equatorial resolved precipitation with resolution cannot be fully explained by the resolution dependence in the vertical velocity amplitude. We report a robust sensitivity in the convective organization over the deep tropics to the model resolution. In simulations of finer resolution, the localized convection is suppressed, and the organized convective system associated with large‐scale circulations becomes more prominent.

We performed a series of aquaplanet simulations at the resolution from 50km to 6km with identical parameterization settings using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model versio...

Several studies have established that atmospheric flows have a finite range of predictability, which may be reasonably considered a consequence of the underlying dynamics. In the midlatitudes, error growth is predominantly associated with baroclinic disturbances. We consider midlatitude error growth in two models: an idealized dry dynamical core and a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). By systematically varying equator to pole temperature gradients in the dynamical core, we show that with increasing Eady growth rates, the time elapsed before errors saturate decreases, shortening the window in which weather predictions may be useful. We also consider the limits of midlatitude predictability in the comprehensive moist GCM in a range of climates. Our results show that the times to error saturation are shorter in warmer climates than colder climates, suggesting that warmer climates are inherently less predictable.

Global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50‐km‐resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25°N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15°N and 20°N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large‐scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.

The Walker circulation connects the regions with deep atmospheric convection in the western tropical Pacific to the shallow‐convection, tropospheric subsidence, and stratocumulus cloud decks of the eastern Pacific. The purpose of this study is to better understand the multi‐scale interactions between the Walker circulation, cloud systems, and interactive radiation. To do this we simulate a mock‐Walker Circulation with a full‐physics general circulation model using idealized boundary conditions. Our experiments use a doubly‐periodic domain with grid‐spacing of 1, 2, 25, and 100 km. We thus span the range from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to Cloud‐system Resolving Models (CRMs). Our model is derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric GCM (AM4.0). We find substantial differences in the mock‐Walker circulation simulated by our GCM‐like and CRM‐like experiments. The CRM‐like experiments have more upper level clouds, stronger overturning circulations, and less precipitation. The GCM‐like experiments have a low‐level cloud fraction that is up to 20% larger. These differences leads to opposite atmospheric responses to changes in the longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). Active LWCRE leads to increased precipitation for our GCMs, but decreased precipitation for our CRMs. The LWCRE leads to a narrower rising branch of the circulation and substantially increases the fraction of precipitation from the large‐scale cloud parameterization. This work demonstrates that a mock‐Walker circulation is a useful generalization of radiative convective equilibrium that includes a large‐scale circulation.

We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous‐generation coupled ESM2‐carbon and CM3‐chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land‐atmosphere‐ocean cycling of CO₂, dust and iron, and interactive ocean‐atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO₂ and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.

The Walker circulation connects the regions with deep atmospheric convection in the western tropical Pacific to the shallow-convection, tropospheric subsidence, and stratocumulus cloud decks of the eastern Pacific. Although important to many elements of the Earth system such as tropical precipitation, and cloud feedback processes, interactions between large-scale tropical circulations and these cloud systems are still not well understood. The purpose of this study is to better understand the multi-scale interactions between the Walker circulation, cloud systems, and interactive radiation. To do this we simulate a mock-Walker Circulation with a full-physics General Circulation Model (GCM) using idealized boundary conditions. Our experiments use a doubly-periodic domain with grid-spacing of 1, 2, 25, and 100km. We thus span the range from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to Cloud-system Resolving Models (CRMs). Our model is derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric GCM (AM4.0). Our GCM-like experiments have a large low-level cloud fraction while the CRM-like experiments have more upper-level clouds. This difference leads to opposite atmospheric responses to changes in the longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). Active LWCRE lead to increased precipitation for our GCMs, but decreased precipitation for our CRMs. The LWCRE leads to a narrower rising branch of the circulation and substantially increases the fraction of precipitation from the large-scale cloud parameterization. Decreasing the grid-spacing to 1km and 2km results in stronger overturning circulations, more condensate aloft, and less precipitation. This work demonstrates that a mock-Walker circulation is a useful generalization of RCE that includes a large-scale circulation.

Climate models generally require that results between runs are bit-for-bit reproducible. This becomes impossible when switching the computational platform or compiler that the model is run on. An ensemble of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Atmosphere Model 4.0 (AM4, Zhao et al. 2018a,b)) is created by perturbing the temperature at a random point on the order of 10-13 (in the rounding error of the system). Previous results show that three different compilers on the same computing platform results in a spread of the global mean temperature of 0.14 K (Robinson et al. 2018). The current ensembles are run on three different computing platforms with different processors: the main production computer of GFDL with Intel broadwell/haswell, one with Intel knights landing, and the other with Intel skylake. The ensemble means and standard deviations for global surface temperature are compared in order to see if the spread of rounding error in the model is platform dependent. The means are also compared to see if they lie within the spread of each modeling platform.

We describe the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's CM4.0 physical climate model, with emphasis on those aspects that may be of particular importance to users of this model and its simulations. The model is built with the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model and OM4.0 ocean model. Topics include the rationale for key choices made in the model formulation, the stability as well as drift of the preindustrial control simulation, and comparison of key aspects of the historical simulations with observations from recent decades. Notable achievements include the relatively small biases in seasonal spatial patterns of top‐of‐atmosphere fluxes, surface temperature, and precipitation; reduced double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias; dramatically improved representation of ocean boundary currents; a high‐quality simulation of climatological Arctic sea ice extent and its recent decline; and excellent simulation of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation spectrum and structure. Areas of concern include inadequate deep convection in the Nordic Seas; an inaccurate Antarctic sea ice simulation; precipitation and wind composites still affected by the equatorial cold tongue bias; muted variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; strong 100 year quasiperiodicity in Southern Ocean ventilation; and a lack of historical warming before 1990 and too rapid warming thereafter due to high climate sensitivity and strong aerosol forcing, in contrast to the observational record. Overall, CM4.0 scores very well in its fidelity against observations compared to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 generation in terms of both mean state and modes of variability and should prove a valuable new addition for analysis across a broad array of applications.