Samuel J. G. Cooper

Reducing industrial energy demand and improving resource efficiency could make a substantial contribution towards the UK government's goal of achieving 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, while simultaneously improving productivity and creating employment opportunities. In this context, the government released its ‘Clean Growth Strategy’ in October 2017, although it has a number of limitations. The associated technology roadmaps exhibit quite large uncertainties, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions over the long term will depend critically on the adoption of a small number of key technologies, alongside the ‘decarbonisation’ of electricity supply. ‘Circular economy’ interventions have the potential to make significant energy savings that are complementary to other energy-efficiency measures. However, the task for both industrial and policy decision makers will still be challenging.

This study quantifies the increase in the peak power demand, net of non‐dispatchable generation, that may be required by widespread adoption of heat pumps. Electrification of heating could reduce emissions but also cause a challenging increase in peak power demand. This study expands on previous studies by quantifying the increase in greater detail; considering a wider range of scenarios, the characteristics of heat pumps and the interaction between wind generation and demand side management (DSM). A model was developed with dynamic simulations of individual heat pumps and dwellings. The increase in peak net‐demand is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the heat pumps, their installation, building fabric and the characteristics of the grid. If 80% of dwellings in the UK use heat pumps, peak net‐demand could increase by around 100% (54 GW) but this increase could be mitigated to 30% (16 GW) by favourable conditions. DSM could reduce this increase to 20%, or 15% if used with extensive thermal storage. If 60% of dwellings use heat pumps, the increase in peak net‐demand could be as low as 5.5 GW. High‐performance heat pumps, appropriate installation and better insulated dwellings could make the increase in peak net‐demand due to the electrification of heating more manageable.

It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be significant consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to maintain the current level of production using 70% of the current primary material consumed. Even with these improvements on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century, with accompanying rises in industrial energy demand, if the rise in demand for goods and services is to be met. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. Product longevity and using goods more intensively are two strategies which could reduce the demand for new goods. If products last longer, then manufacturing output can concentrate on emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are infrequently used, these seldom wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment, but modern communication systems and social media could increase the opportunities to share goods. Sharing goods also increases access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted.