Tadhg O' Mahony

Weak and strong sustainability represent two opposing ways of understanding sustainability. This is reflected in the metrics used to monitor both types of sustainability, where the former favours monetary aggregates of manufactured, human, and natural capital, while the latter favours biophysical indicators. A comparison of the outcomes of weak and strong sustainability metrics leads to conflicting messages between the two paradigms when assessing sustainability status and trends. Weak sustainability metrics downplay the relevance of environmental degradation, arguing that in most countries economic development is sustainable or close to being sustainable. In contrast, strong sustainability metrics argue that the world and the vast majority of nations are unsustainable. There are, however, possibilities for creating shared narratives in which the biophysical insights provided by strong sustainability metrics are complemented with those from weak sustainability metrics. From this, we also identify opportunities to move towards more meaningful sustainability narratives that combine both perspectives.

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core concern has been the balance between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A critical strand of the debate focuses on economic growth versus economic degrowth and, more specifically, on whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article used the Sustainability Window, or “SuWi”’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies. The window is defined as the upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP that could be deemed in line with achieving both environmental and social sustainability. The conceptual analysis considers all theoretically possible scenario paths for development by combining the outcome paths of economic, environmental, and social dimensions with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. Through SuWi analysis, it is found that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically “sustainable”—two cases involving economic growth and two of degrowth. In the cases of each of the four paths, sustainability only emerges where they adhere to strict conditions in terms of environmental and social outcomes, as well as related productivities. The SuWi approach and its applied analytical formulas have many potential uses in 21st-century policymaking for sustainability, including supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It provides a unique and comprehensive theoretical and analytical framework that enables the categorisation of the complex challenges of sustainability and quantitative analysis of policy choices. Such foresight analysis could greatly assist in providing an evidence base for future development planning and policy formulation, ex ante of locking in a pathway. Further implementation in applied studies that explore a comprehensive indicator set, robust and consistent across all relevant dimensions, offers a promising opportunity to advance empirical analysis of key questions in sustainable development globally at a critical juncture in human history.

Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core debate has concerned the relationship between the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability. In recent years, a debate on economic growth versus degrowth has been going on discussing whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether economic degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article has used the Sustainability Window, or ‘SuWi’ method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies, as upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP, that could be deemed in line with environmental and social sustainability. All theoretically possible scenario paths of development are considered by combining the economic, environmental, and social dimensions, with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. In moving to sustainability analysis through SuWi it is noted that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically 'sustainable’, and only if adhering to strict conditions. Two of the hypothesised scenarios involve economic growth and two of economic degrowth. The approach, including calculation formulas, has many potential uses in providing analysis and support to 21st century sustainability policymaking, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Sustainability and wellbeing are two key global policy priorities, which despite considerable overlap, are invariably isolated. In wellbeing, the importance of social dimensions is an emergent conclusion, but recognition of the environment and nature is embryonic. In sustainability, wellbeing remains poorly characterized. Despite some procedural advantages, in practice, a continued ambiguity risks compromising both goals, and improved conceptual integration is therefore necessary. In this review article, key contemporary wellbeing accounts are considered, including preferences, needs, capabilities, happiness, psychological wellbeing, and physical wellness. Wellbeing literature suggests that a holistic multidimensional account is strongly supported, that is context- and value-dependent, with a prominent role for social and relational dimensions. A transdisciplinary systems thinking approach is appropriate to integrate from the individualism characteristic of wellbeing, to the interdependent human and environmental systems of sustainability. It is recognized that both wellbeing and sustainability are complex and value-laden, requiring the surfacing of values and ethics. A synthesis of the two branches of literature asserts four fundamental lenses: the framing of growth and change; social justice; the ethics of freedom; and the value of nature. The conceptual synthesis both platforms the relational approach of “care,” and underlines the imperative to reconsider the place of consumption. An integrated “sustainable wellbeing” offers the potential for win-win outcomes, in transformation to a flourishing of human wellbeing and the natural world.

The global practice of Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), to analyse the welfare impacts of public investments, has undergone profound changes in recent years. The reforms in general practice have primarily been driven by the discussions of the implications of climate change and environmental degradation. Central to the discussion has been the social discount rate, used to value future costs and benefits in the present, and also the dual discount rates for "environmental goods", as goods that are of no, or of risky substitution. Official rates, in many nations, are calculated using the "Ramsey" formula. The literature has explored the relevant factors in this formula, but with less attention paid to the selection of the rate of future growth in consumption, or to the setting of dual discount rates in national practice guidance. Through considering the case of Ireland, this study demonstrates that the selection of growth rates in consumption, in the context of future uncertainty, requires the use of plausible scenarios, rather than historical trends or forecasts. By employing economic scenarios, alongside established values for the other factors, the main discount rate for Ireland is calculated in a range of 1.7 to 2.8 per cent. Seperately, a dual discount rate, for capital that cannot be replaced, is estimated at ≤1.3 per cent. The main discount rate is validated by comparison against discount rates found in the literature, applied in other comparable nations, and by the rate estimated from the real yield on government bonds. All four independent lines of evidence support the range estimated. This demonstrates that the Irish government's estimated discount rate, of 4.0 per cent, is not credible, and needs reduction, alongside introduction of dual discounting.

This study provides an analysis of Cambodian socio‐economic and environmental development. The analysis applies the Sustainable Society Index—database and uses Sustainability Window analyses linked to the green growth strategy in Cambodia. The novel analyses provide criteria for weak and strong sustainability and are further developed to evaluate the green growth productivity gap.We have carried out empirical analyses using indicators of the different dimensions of sustainability—economic, social, and environmental. The Sustainability Window defines the minimum economic development for social sustainability and the maximum economic development for environmental criterion for sustainability.This study demonstrates methodological usefulness of the Sustainability Window analysis in the fields of development studies and green growth. The methodological novelty of this study is to use Sustainability Window approach and to provide a novel empirical testbed for strong and weak sustainability analyses as well as for the analysis of the green growth resource use productivity gap.