Alistair J. Hobday

As climate change drives increasingly frequent and severe climatic extremes, effective strategies to prevent extinction of threatened species are urgently needed. Interventions enabling species to survive acute stress may buy time to address other threats and identify long‐term refugia. For the Critically Endangered red handfish ( Thymichthys politus ), forecasts ahead of the 2023/2024 El Niño indicated a high risk of marine heatwaves (MHW). An expert workshop identified these forecasted extremes (>20 or +~3°C) as a severe threat, triggering an emergency rescue to temporarily remove individuals from the wild. Following commonwealth, state and institutional approvals, 25 fish were captured in January 2024 and held in captivity for 3 months. During this period, in situ water temperatures exceeded records, including 80 days more than 2°C above the long‐term mean summer temperature (~17.5°C). Three fish died in captivity and four adults were retained in a captive breeding program, while the remaining 18 individuals were returned after the MHW subsided, with post‐release survival confirmed after 2 months. This represents Australia's first pre‐emptive rescue of a protected marine species and highlights the importance of proactive, adaptive conservation to strengthen capacity in safeguarding threatened species during environmental extremes and long term climate change impacts.

The blue economy is commonly framed as a pathway to sustainability, promising the reconciliation of economic growth with environmental protection and social equity. In practice, however, industries seeking to operate blue face significant challenges translating high-level principles into practice. The study examines how the Tasmanian aquaculture sector (i.e., salmon, oyster, and seaweed industries) operationalise blue economy principles on the ground, and where gaps and burdens emerge. Survey data were drawn from the CSIRO Tasmanian Coastal Waters and Seas Survey 2025, a statewide stakeholder survey (n = 931). Results suggest widespread stakeholder concern in relation to environmental decline, strong expectations for transparency and accountability, and low perceived public influence over marine decision-making. While these conditions appear to have intensified social risk, the response by industry has been varied and includes enhanced environmental monitoring, regulatory compliance beyond minimum requirements, third-party certification, community engagement, and investment in mitigation and adaptation measures. However, stakeholder perceptions of the effectiveness and legitimacy of these actions vary markedly. Salmon aquaculture remains highly contested, with polarised views reflecting tensions around environmental performance and governance, while oyster and seaweed farming sit in lower conflict but more uncertain spaces. The findings suggest that navigating social risk in the blue economy requires industry-specific strategies that extend beyond formal policy alignment and regulatory compliance to provide the nuance and innovation needed to address cumulative impacts, accountability, and community expectations.

Marine waters are becoming warmer and acidified and experiencing more intense and longer heatwaves under climate change. These changes are already impacting marine ecosystems and seafood production, which are vital for supporting food security and economic productivity. For Australia, a national‐scale assessment of exposure to climate hazards is needed to support climate‐resilient ecosystem management across one of the world's largest exclusive economic zones. Commercial fishing relies on healthy ecosystems and is one of Australia's most important sectors in terms of cultural identity and regional value. However, Australian fisheries and aquaculture are increasingly exposed to climate‐driven changes in ocean conditions, creating substantial risks for marine ecosystems, seafood production and coastal economies. We assess the exposure of Australia's seafood sector to climate change using high‐resolution climate projections and ecosystem model outputs under three global warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C futures). Our findings reveal that the entire Australian exclusive economic zone is exposed, with cumulative exposure highest for regions with a large continental shelf. The biomass available to fisheries is projected to decline. Negative impacts from climate change are generally expected for fisheries and aquaculture production. Despite some evidence of adaptation, uneven adaptive capacity across sectors and jurisdictions presents challenges for climate resilience. This study underscores the urgency of global mitigation efforts to reduce risk, coordinated adaptation strategies, improved coastal hazard modelling and ecological risk assessments to safeguard the future of fisheries and aquaculture industries under climate change.

No abstract required - here' a summary Marine heatwaves have emerged as a global risk for marine ecosystems and have resulted in dramatic species’ range changes, coral bleaching, fish kills, and associated algal blooms. Advances in forecasting of these marine extremes has considerable potential for proactive environmental management to reduce the risks and impacts, thus increasing the resilience of marine ecosystems. Seasonal forecasts increase the time available before an event (i.e. a longer preparation window), resulting in more time to implement strategies to minimise impacts and maximise the research and knowledge opportunities in conservation and ecosystem management. Here we describe how advances in forecasting can improve the range of responses that can be enacted by researchers, managers and policymakers engaged with conservation and management of marine ecosystems.

This paper synthesizes the key contributions and lessons learned from Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR), a large-scale global research project aimed at fostering ocean sustainability under global change for the benefit of society. The UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has catalyzed a renewed focus on the importance of transforming ocean science. IMBeR’s global activity over the past decade has focused on promoting transformative science by generating, mobilizing, and communicating the knowledge needed to support ocean governance. Key contributions from IMBeR participants include quantifying and comparing historic and present structure and functioning of linked ocean and human systems, advancing interdisciplinarity in ocean science, establishing a strong global network that has supported long-term collaboration, capacity building, and career development for participants. In synthesizing IMBeR contributions, we also highlight several challenges identified by the IMBeR community in developing and implementing this global research initiative. These include an uncertain and rapidly changing (and often limited) funding landscape, the reliance on significant additional workload on researchers to catalyze novel science initiatives, and the structural complexity of global networks that can at times impede rapid responses to new questions, opportunities, and overall adaptability. Opportunities for transformative ocean science include developing more resilient and equitable funding models, fostering agile, inclusive, and transdisciplinary collaborations, and strengthening the science–policy interface. This synthesis is intended to help inform and guide large-scale ocean research efforts and contribute to ongoing global initiatives to foster transformative science that links people and oceans for healthy and sustainable futures.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete and prolonged warm ocean temperature extremes—can pose serious threats to marine ecosystems. While the previous work of authors has highlighted the diversity of MHWs, future changes in six representative MHW types, under different climate change scenarios, are unknown. Here, we analyze changes in MHW diversity projected for the late 21st century using multi‐model ensembles from CMIP6 under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Our results show that under the normal‐emission scenario, annual occurrence days of bimodal MHWs keep increasing, while those of the other five types rise early but level off around 2050. Under the high‐emission scenario, annual occurrence days of three long, intense types keep rising, whereas the other three decline after mid‐century. We further find that higher‐intensity MHWs are increasingly associated with bimodal events. Spatially, MHW distributions shift toward bimodal dominance, with nearly all ocean regions projected to be governed by bimodal types by mid‐century under the both scenarios. Improved understanding of these projected shifts is critical for informing marine conservation planning and climate adaptation strategies in ocean ecosystems.

Developing ecosystem models has traditionally been limited to a small global community of experts because of the complex skills and resources required. However, the emergence of user-friendly artificial intelligence (AI) tools with powerful generative capabilities could democratize ecosystem modeling, enabling both experts and nonspecialists to build models. We explore a speculative future where AI enables automated end-to-end model development and application. Although such tools could accelerate and enhance modeling tasks, their widespread adoption raises concerns about data integrity, bias, interpretation reliability, and the potential erosion of human expertise. We argue that regardless of AI’s technical advancement, human engagement and control remain essential. The global community must respond by identifying key factors that distinguish desirable outcomes and developing infrastructure, standards, and ethical guidelines to ensure AI use in ecosystem modeling remains scientifically robust while supporting sustainable and equitable outcomes.