Roxana Bojariu

As climate impacts accelerate, ‘climate change hotspots’ (CCHs) are increasingly used to prioritise limited adaptation resources. However, hotspot conceptualisation remains fragmented. To address this gap, this study first conducts an evidence synthesis of 353 studies to investigate how CCHs are conceptually defined and analytically identified across four major climate hazards (heat, drought, flood and snow). This synthesis shows that most existing hotspot methodologies are dominated by potential hazard intensity, while socio-economic dimensions, stakeholder knowledge and impact-based validation are rarely integrated. To address this knowledge gap, we develop a bottom-up integrated framework for CCHs identification. Transitioning away from a top–down hazard-centric approach, our bottom-up approach integrates biophysical and socio-economic data with event-based storylines and stakeholder consultation. The transferability of our framework is demonstrated through two European case studies, snow avalanches in Alps and Carpathians, and flash flood in Trentino-Alto Adige, Italy. The case studies identify hotspots by intersecting climate hazard data with local geographic characteristics and socio-economic information. In both applications, historical event-based storylines ground quantitative risk classifications in real-world disaster dynamics, while stakeholder consultations refine the localised exposure. The results reveal that Alpine and Carpathian snow hotspots are projected to persist and intensify by 2100. The flash flood hotspots remain concentrated in alluvial valley bottoms, where the hazard converges with dense socio-economic and infrastructural exposure. Our integrated framework provides an adaptable and transferable approach for identifying CCHs. It can serve as good practice and can support the prioritisation of adaptation effort and planning across administrative regions and sectors.

Various motivations are at the basis of tourists’ choice for rural destinations, and among them natural environment and outdoor activities hold a significant weight. This makes tourism vulnerable to climate change through the direct effect of changes in the attractivity of climate conditions, in addition to the indirect effects due to the expected impacts on other associated socio-economic sectors. In this context, increasing rural tourism resilience to climate change is a complex issue which needs to consider adaptation measures focusing on tourism specifics in synergy with adaptation measures in related sectors (e.g., energy, land and water management, urbanization aspects). Expected impacts, vulnerability and resilience of tourism to climate change are research issues more and more addressed in the recent years and their assessment at national or even local scales becomes increasingly important for designing effective adaptation measures. The study aims to present a summary of current knowledge related to the impact of climate change on Romanian tourism and, in particular, on rural tourism. Also, a synthesis of the available climate information tailored for the Romanian tourism sector is presented, focusing on actionable information that may be employed to reduce the negative effects of climate change on Romanian rural tourism.

This study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021–2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble of model simulations in the context of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring, extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate change on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, and this will be more pronounced in rural destinations.

The study presents an assessment of climate suitability for outdoor leisure activities in Romania using the Holliday Climate Index (HCI) for the near future (2021-2040), focusing on unfavorable and good climate conditions. The analysis employs data from an ensemble model in the context of RCP45 and RCP85 climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the number of days with low weather suitability is decreasing in almost the entire country, especially during the warm season, while during the winter and spring extended regions may be characterized by a higher number of days favorable for outdoor activities than during the current climate. An estimation of the impact of climate changes on tourism flux in Romania is further carried out, suggesting that the increasing attractivity of climate conditions may lead to an increased number of tourist overnights in the near future, more pronounced in rural destinations.

Nature, landscape, relaxation, and outdoor activities are important motivations when choosing rural destinations for vacations. Therefore, when selecting a rural area as a vacation destination, we assume that climate features are important. We investigated the appropriateness of the holiday climate index: urban (HCI:urban) in quantitatively describing the relationship between climate and tourism fluxes in such destinations. We employed data from 94 urban and rural tourist destinations in Romania and correlated the monthly mean HCI:urban values with sectoral data (overnight tourists) for 2010–2018. The results show that weather and climate influenced tourism fluxes similarly in rural and urban destinations, supporting the hypothesis that HCI:urban may be used for rural areas as well. The information derived from HCI:urban may be useful for tourists when planning their vacations as well as for tourism investors in managing their businesses and reducing the weather and climate-related seasonality in tourism fluxes.

WeCTOU (http://wectou.meteoromania.ro/) which delivers climate and environmental information tailored for tourism at 160 locations in Romania is a provider of climate services developed and operated by National Meteorological Administration.  European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have provided the financial support. WeCTOU aims to extend its climate services and in this context, we have taken into account the needs of stakeholders interested in winter tourism in Romanian mountains using observations from national meteorological network together with reanalysis and model products extracted from the Climate Data Store developed at the ECMWF. Stakeholders interested in winter tourism in Romanian mountains span a wide range of categories from central and local administration to representatives of hospitality industry and individuals. In 2019, the Romanian Ministry of Economy, Energy and Business Environment, also responsible of tourism certified 195 ski slopes located in 20 Romanian counties. We use the ensemble distribution of number of days with snow depth larger than 30 cm from future projections covering the period 2021-2040 under climate change scenarios to provide a first guess assessment of future profitability of Romanian ski resorts compared with the reference period 1976-2005. This type of indicator together with climate products related to snow making are important for identifying opportunities for future investments in winter tourism. They are also important in general urban planning for localities which have to change their profile from winter resort to one which serve guests year-round.  Especially for tourists and hospitality industry, we use future projections of indicators relative to present conditions (2021-2040 vs. 1976-2005) such as the ensemble distribution of number of days with snow layers having depths larger than 30 cm during winter holidays (22 Dec- 04 Jan). Also, we have shown how testing all these winter climate services with the interested stakeholders has guided us during the incremental developing stages to shape the final design.   

We evaluated the response of vegetation’s photosynthetic activity to drought conditions from 1998 to 2014 over Romania and the Republic of Moldova. The connection between vegetation stress and drought events was assessed by means of a correlation analysis between the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), at several time scales, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as well as an assessment of the simultaneous occurrence of extremes in both indices. The analysis of the relationship between drought and vegetation was made for the growing season (from April to October of the entire period), and special attention was devoted to the severe drought event of 2000/2001, considered as the driest since 1961 for the study area. More than three quarters (77%) of the agricultural land exhibits a positive correlation between the two indices. The sensitivity of crop areas to drought is strong, as the impacts were detected from May to October, with a peak in July. On the other hand, forests were found to be less sensitive to drought, as the impacts were limited mostly to July and August. Moreover, vegetation of all land cover classes showed a dependence between the sign of the correlation and the elevation gradient. Roughly 60% (20%) of the study domain shows a concordance of anomalously low vegetation activity with dry conditions of at least 50% (80%) in August. By contrast, a lower value of concordance was observed over the Carpathian Mountains. During the severe drought event of 2000/2001, a decrease in vegetation activity was detected for most of the study area, showing a decrease lasting at least 4 months, between April and October, for more than two thirds (71%) of the study domain.

Weather radar measurements are used to study the climatology of convective storms and their characteristics in the transboundary Prut River basin. The Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm was used to process the volumetric reflectivity measurements, in order to identify, characterize, and track the convective storm cells. The storm attribute table output of the algorithm was used to separate the convective from the stratiform storm cells, by applying a simple selection criterion based on the average vertically integrated liquid (VIL) values. The radar-derived characteristics of convective storms were used to document the spatial and temporal distributions and storm properties in terms of duration, distance travelled, movement direction, and intensity. The results show that 94.3 % of all convective storm cells were detected during May–August, with the peak in July. The peak time for convective storm cells' occurrence was in the afternoon and evening hours between 10:00 and 18:00 UTC. The median duration of a convective storm was 42 min, the median distance travelled was 23 km, and the median movement speed was 7.7 m s⁻¹. The average movement of storms varied with months, but overall most convective storms move from the south-west and south–south-east. Also, the analysis shows that the longer-lasting convective storms were the most intense. The spatial distribution of the convective cells reveals yearly variation patterns and hotspots but also highlights the limitations of radar measurement at longer distances. Reanalysis data suggest that low values of sea level pressure over the Black Sea can act as a dynamical driver of convective storms in the analysed area.