John Merrifield

A dynamic scoring simulation analysis compares the size-of-government effects of four state-government-level Tax and Expenditure Limit (TEL) and Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) combinations. Two of the four TEL-BSF combinations have population-plus-inflation as the basis for the spending growth limit. The other two TEL-BSF combinations have personal-income-growth as the basis for the spending growth cap. A sensitivity analysis, including a regression analysis of Monte-Carlo-generated ‘observations’, measures the significance of the model parameter choices. The personal-income-growth TELs don’t constrain spending growth at all in some states. In most states, a TEL based on a significant multiple of population plus inflation restrains fiscal expansion more than either version of our personal income growth TEL. The findings provide some important policy issues: there are significant differences in the fiscal and economic impacts of likely TEL design alternatives, and there is a likely trade-off between stringency and political durability.

(2014). Editor’s Corner. Journal of School Choice: Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 157-158.

(2013). Can We Reasonably Assess “Productivity of Market-Based Educational Reforms”?: Comment on Anna Egalite's “Measuring Competitive Effects From School Voucher Programs: A Systematic Review”. Journal of School Choice: Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 465-467.

Legislators considering large scale school choice proposals want information on more than likely schooling outcomes. They look to their fiscal bureaus and economic studies to provide that information. The fiscal notes that must accompany all proposals with revenue or expenditure implications are especially important. Often, fiscal notes must be produced on short notice. The article assesses the fiscal notes that have accompanied the major U.S. charter law and tuition voucher proposals, and to highlight key issues and research needs it assesses fiscal and economic impacts of the proposed Texas (2011–HB 33) tuition voucher program. We assess fiscal notes in terms of research basis for predictions, predicted level of participation (# of choosers), and predicted basis for fiscal impacts, including time trend of effects. Finally, we propose how the fiscal notes might be improved; not just what legislative analysts should do, but also what could be done to make doing a better job easier.

A special tabulation of individual student scores from the Texas Assessment of Academic Skills (TAAS) test allowed a ranking of Texas schools according to test score changes (“value added”). The rankings varied greatly by student subpopulation. That is, the vast majority of schools are much more effective with some kinds of students than others. The implied comparative advantages suggest possibly large academic gains just from indicated student movement, even among unchanged, traditional, “comprehensively uniform” public schools, perhaps through well-informed public school choice. Further gains from specialization are also implied by the results.

Freedom of any kind has intrinsic value, and education freedom is controversial, in need of empirical assessment of possible and likely trade-offs between freedom from state control and social goals such as equity and cohesion. Without a reasonable empirical measure of education freedom we can only cite the controversies and choose sides. The growing interest in likely effects of new school system governance structures, especially those that promise increased competition in school systems, would benefit from an objective, quantitative assessment of education freedom, a key element of competitiveness. The key institutional factors that this article measures and combines into an education freedom index are entry barriers, price control, opportunity to specialize (product differentiation), uncertainty about the future scope of the market, and availability of information. Quantification facilitates discussion of the key factors' relative importance, the main components of each, and potential factor interdependence. The formulation of a numerical index raises issues such as the conflicting objectives of index simplicity versus index reality, including proper sensitivity to all of the factors that would theoretically affect the level of freedom and competition, and the nature of market forces and other factors that would dictate schooling practices in the absence of regulation or direct state production. Likewise, the desire to maximize the empirical basis of index components, and to minimize the role of subjective judgment, weighs heavily in the creation of the index demonstrated with data for 2 Canadian provinces.