Allan Trench

Lithium, as a Li-ion battery constituent, is pivotal for the transition to clean energy. Western Australia (WA) has become a global leader in hard-rock lithium mining, realising 10-fold growth from 2010 to 2024 and with royalty receipts to the WA government surpassing $1 billion AUD. Given the sector’s economic significance, we analyse key performance metrics including resource/reserve build, production growth, cumulative capital deployed, capital intensity, and development timelines for the new-generation lithium mines. Several enabling factors supported the rapid build-out of capacity. These include an efficient mine permitting process to manage environmental impacts and competing land use issues, a stable royalty regime, energy and logistics infrastructure, availability of a skilled workforce, and mining services capability. Contrary to the standard industry narrative that new mineral projects are constrained by legislative delay, the new lithium projects achieved development timelines of 7 years or less from first resource to production. This has broader implications for critical mineral projects where success is likely to depend less on strategic classification and more on project quality, financing, and regional capability.

Gold is neither a critical mineral nor a metal that is central to the global energy transition in terms of demand from new energy production technologies. Yet, gold is unique among mined commodities for its role in financial markets and for its global production footprint including in numerous developing economies. Since the production of gold incurs CO₂ emissions and other environmental risks including water pollution and land degradation, gold producers seek to adopt clean production solutions through electrification and renewable energy adoption. Further, gold’s unique role as a store of value creates new potential green business models in gold, such as the digitalisation of in-ground gold inventories, which can further reduce negative environmental externalities from gold mining. A net-zero emissions, future global gold industry, is possible. Major gold producers are targeting net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050, coupled with a lower overall environmental footprint to meet heightened societal expectations for cleaner production. An analysis of emissions data from Australian gold mines shows systematic differences between mining operations. Further clean energy investment in gold production is required to reduce emission levels towards the target of net zero.

The declining discovery rate of world-class ore deposits represents a significant obstacle to future global metal supply. To counter this trend, there is a requirement for mineral exploration to be conducted in increasingly challenging, uncertain, and remote environments. Faced with such increases in task and environmental complexity, an important concern in exploratory activities are the behavioural challenges of information perception, interpretation and decision-making by geoscientists tasked with discovering the next generation of deposits. Here, we outline the Dynamics model, as a diagnostic tool for situational analysis and a guiding framework for designing working and training environments to maximise exploration performance. The Dynamics model is based on an Ecological Dynamics framework, combining Newell’s Constraints model, Self Determination Theory, and including feedback loops to define an autopoietic system. By implication of the Dynamics model, several areas are highlighted as being important for improving the quality of exploration. These include: (a) provision of needs-supportive working environments that promote appropriate degrees of effort, autonomy, creativity and technical risk-taking; (b) an understanding of the wider motivational context, particularly the influence of tradition, culture and other ‘forms of life’ that constrain behaviour; (c) relevant goal-setting in the design of corporate strategies to direct exploration activities; and (d) development of practical, representative scenario-based training interventions, providing effective learning environments, with digital media and technologies presenting decision-outcome feedback, to assist in the development of expertise in mineral exploration targeting.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Three-part Undiscovered Mineral Resource Assessment provides a framework for estimating undiscovered mineral endowment. Previous studies that applied the Three-part Assessment to estimate the undiscovered orogenic gold endowment of the Sandstone Greenstone Belt, Western Australia, have relied upon dated or expert-derived grade-tonnage models. Here, several assessments are conducted using local grade-tonnage models, comprising known orogenic gold deposits within the entire Yilgarn Block and several individual terranes with contrasting lithosphere- to terrane-scale characteristics. These models are generated through comprehensive review of historical exploration, resource and production data. Based on these models, the Sandstone Greenstone Belt is estimated to contain significant undiscovered gold mineralisation, with a median total endowment of between 166 and 298 t gold, and mean of 167–319 t gold. Although these updated grade-tonnage models provide an approximately 80 per cent variation in predicted gold endowment, it is still evident that the belt remains an under-explored region within the Yilgarn Block, Western Australia.