Sung-Hong Park

This study presents a deep learning framework for real‐time prediction of post‐peak solar flare irradiance. The model targets the soft X‐ray band (0.1–0.8 nm) and three extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelength bands (9.0–9.9 nm, 13.0–13.9 nm, and 30.0–30.9 nm), and produces forecasts at 1‐min cadence for 3 hr after the flare peak. We used 964 M‐ and X‐class flare events from January 2003 to March 2023, with 60 min of pre‐peak Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X‐ray flux as input and Flare Irradiance Spectral Model Version 2 (FISM2) reconstructed irradiance as the reference target. We trained and evaluated multiple deep learning architectures, including fully connected neural network (FCN), long short‐term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), recurrent neural network (RNN), and Transformer models, and compared them with statistical baseline models. The FCN model achieved correlation coefficients of 0.88 in the 0.1–0.8 nm X‐ray band and 0.55, 0.82, and 0.66 in the 9.0–9.9 nm, 13.0–13.9 nm, and 30.0–30.9 nm EUV bands, respectively. The GRU model achieved the highest mean correlation coefficient among the tested deep learning models, while random forest regression provided the strongest statistical baseline model. Nevertheless, the FCN model remained competitive in error‐based metrics and showed particularly strong absolute peak error performance in the soft X‐ray band and competitive error‐based performance in the 30.0–30.9 nm band. These results demonstrate the feasibility of real‐time post‐peak irradiance forecasting across multiple X‐ray and EUV bands and provide a benchmarked foundation for future full‐spectrum irradiance prediction to support ionospheric modeling and space weather operations.

The SOL2013-10-28T02:02:58L133C110 flare occurred on the western limb, acquiring the GOES class of X1.0, and we focus on an oscillatory phenomenon detected at 34 GHz by the Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH) during this flare. The oscillation is less obvious at 17 GHz and is unseen for a hard X-ray source detected by the RHESSI. In the 94 Å images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we traced the evolution of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images capturing an eruption around 01:58 UT over the location of the RHESSI 50–100 keV source. We located the microwave emitting loop inferred from the 17/34 GHz maps within the complex EUV loop systems, and performed a model calculation of the dynamic evolution of the microwave brightness, including the radiative transfer in a magnetically asymmetric loop and evolving nonthermal electrons. The results demonstrate that a quasiperiodic injection of energetic electrons at a fixed spatial point is sufficient to reproduce such an oscillatory motion, without an actual shift of the nonthermal electron injection point, and that the magnetic environment required for the microwave loop model is consistent with the observed EUV activities related to the overall reconnection geometry.

Spacecraft equipped with solar telescopes are planned for deployment at various vantage points in the heliosphere to conduct coordinated, multi‐view observations of the Sun and its dynamic activities. We investigate solar visibility using imaging instruments aboard spacecraft stationed at the Sun‐Earth Lagrange points L1, L4 and L5. First, the optimal arrival time for vertical periodic orbits at L4 and L5 is determined on the basis of geometric factors that maximize the visibility of the solar poles and higher latitudes. For different orbits around L1, L4 and L5, we calculate the visibility of the solar surface (i.e., observation days per year) as a function of solar latitude. Additionally, we analyze how the solar limb observed from one Lagrange point aligns with the solar surface visible from the other two points, with a focus on studying solar eruptions like flares and coronal mass ejections. This analysis aims to assess the feasibility of coordinated observations of off‐disk erupting structures and their on‐disk magnetic footpoints. Furthermore, we evaluate the improvement in continuous tracking of solar features, such as sunspots, with multiple spacecraft in various orbital configurations. This tracking helps in studying the long‐term evolution of these features, from emergence to decay. A comprehensive comparison of observations from single (L1), double (L1 and L4), and multiple spacecraft (L1, L4 and L5) is conducted, aiding the design of future space missions involving solar observatories at the Sun‐Earth Lagrange points.

This study reports comprehensive observations for the G5-level geomagnetic storm that occurred from May 10 to 12, 2024, the most intense event since the 2003 Halloween storm. The storm was triggered by a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from the merging of two active regions 13664/13668, which formed a large and complex photospheric magnetic configuration and produced X-class flares in early May 2024. Among the events, the most significant CME, driven by an X2.2 flare on May 9, caught up with and merged with a preceding slower CME associated with an X-class flare on May 8. These combined CMEs reached 1 AU simultaneously, resulting in an extreme geomagnetic storm. Geostationary satellite observations revealed changes in Earth’s magnetosphere due to solar wind impacts, increased fluxes of high-energy particles, and periodic magnetic field fluctuations accompanied by particle injections. Extreme geomagnetic storms resulting from the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere caused significant energy influx into Earth’s upper atmosphere over the polar regions, leading to thermospheric heating and changes in the global atmospheric composition and ionosphere. As part of this global disturbance, significant disruptions were also observed in the East Asian sector, including the Korean Peninsula. Ground-based observations show strong negative storm effects in the ionosphere, which are associated with thermospheric heating and resulting in decreases in the oxygen-to-nitrogen ratio (O/N2) in high-latitude regions. Global responses of storm-time prompt penetration electric fields were also observed from magnetometers over the East-Asian longitudinal sector. We also briefly report storm-time responses of aurora and cosmic rays using all-sky cameras and neutron monitors operated by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI). The extensive observations of the G5-level storm offer crucial insights into Sun-Earth interactions during extreme space weather events and may help establish better preparation for future space weather challenges.

Beyond the Sun-Earth line, spacecraft equipped with various solar telescopes are intended to be deployed at several different vantage points in the heliosphere to carry out coordinated, multi-view observations of the Sun and its dynamic activities. In this context, we investigate solar visibility by imaging instruments onboard the spacecraft orbiting the Sun-Earth Lagrange points L1, L4 and L5, respectively. An optimal arrival time for vertical periodic orbits stationed at L4 and L5 is determined based on geometric considerations that ensure maximum visibility of solar poles or higher latitudes per year. For a different set of orbits around the three Lagrange points (L1, L4 and L5), we calculate the visibility of the solar surface (i.e., observation days per year) as a function of the solar latitude. We also analyze where the solar limb viewed from one of the three Sun-Earth Lagrange points under consideration is projected onto the solar surface visible to the other two. This analysis particularly aims at determining the feasibility of studying solar eruptions, such as flares and coronal mass ejections, with coordinated observations of off-limb erupting coronal structures and their on-disk magnetic footpoints. In addition, visibility analysis of a feature (such as sunspots) on the solar surface is made for multiple spacecraft in various types of orbits with different inclinations to quantify the improvement in continuous tracking of the target feature for studying its long-term evolution from emergence, growth and to decay. A comprehensive comparison of observations from single (L1), double (L1 and L4) and multi-space missions (L1, L4 and L5) is carried out through our solar visibility analysis, and this may help us to design future space missions of constructing multiple solar observatories at the Sun-Earth Lagrange points.

Plumes are bright structures in coronal holes extending from the solar surface into the corona and are considered as a possible source of the solar wind. Plumes are thought to be rooted in strong unipolar photospheric flux patches (network/plage region). The magnetic activities at the base of plumes may play a crucial role in producing outflows and propagating disturbances (PDs). However, the role of photospheric/chromospheric activities (e.g., jets/spicules) at the base of plumes and their connection to PDs is poorly understood. Using high-resolution observations of a plume taken on 2020 July 23 with the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST), Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS), and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we analyzed chromospheric/transition region activities at the base of the plume and their connection to outflows/PDs in the plume. The GST Visible Imaging Spectrometer images reveal repetitive spicules with blueshifted emission (pseudo-Doppler maps) at the plume’s footpoint. In addition, the photospheric magnetograms provide evidence of mixed polarities at the base of the plume. The IRIS Mg ii k Dopplergrams show strong blueshifted emission (∼50 km s⁻¹) and a high brightness temperature (Mg ii k2 line) at the footpoint of the plume. The long-period PDs (P ≈ 20–25 minutes) along the plume (AIA 171 Å) match the periodicity of spicules in the chromospheric images, suggesting a close connection between the spicules and the PDs. We suggest that the interchange reconnection between the closed and open flux of the coronal bright point at the plume’s footpoint is the most likely candidate to produce upflows and associated PDs along the plume.

One key aspect of understanding the solar dynamo mechanism and the evolution of solar magnetism is to properly describe the emergence of solar active regions. In this Letter, we describe the Lagrangian photospheric flows dynamics during a simulated flux emergence that produces an active region formed by pores. We analyze the lower photospheric flow organization prior, during and following the rise of an active region, uncovering the repelling and attracting photospheric structures that act as sources and sinks for magnetic element transport. Our results show that around 10 hr before the simulated emergence, considerable global changes are taking place on mesogranular scales indicated by an increase of the number of regions acting as a source to the multiple and scattered emergences of small-scale magnetic flux. At the location of active region’s appearance, the converging flows become weaker and there is an arising of a diverging region 8 hr before the emergence time. Our study also indicates that the strong concentration of magnetic field affects the flow dynamics beyond the area of the actual simulated pores, leading to complex and strongly diverging flows in the neighboring regions. Our findings suggest that the Lagrangian analysis is a powerful tool to describe the changes in the photospheric flows due to magnetic flux emergence.

Magnetic free energy powers solar flares and coronal mass ejections, and the buildup of magnetic helicity might play a role in the development of unstable structures that subsequently erupt. To better understand the roles of energy and helicity in large flares and eruptions, we have characterized the evolution of magnetic energy and helicity associated with 21 X-class flares from 2010 to 2017. Our sample includes both confined and eruptive events, with 6 and 15 in each category, respectively. Using the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager vector magnetic field observations from several hours before to several hours after each event, we employ (a) the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms to determine the photospheric fluxes of energy and helicity, and (b) nonlinear force-free field extrapolations to estimate the coronal content of energy and helicity in source-region fields. Using superposed epoch analysis, we find, on average, the following: (1) decreases in both magnetic energy and helicity, in both photospheric fluxes and coronal content, that persist for a few hours after eruptions, but no clear changes, notably in relative helicity, for confined events; (2) significant increases in the twist of photospheric fields in eruptive events, with twist uncertainties too large in confined events to constrain twist changes (and lower overall twist in confined events); and (3) on longer timescales (event time +12 hr), replenishment of free magnetic energy and helicity content to near preevent levels for eruptive events. For eruptive events, magnetic helicity and free energy in coronal models clearly decrease after flares, with the amounts of decrease proportional to each region’s pre-flare content.