Rodel Diaz Lasco

The rising global temperature and changing climate patterns have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, droughts, and heavy precipitation, significantly affecting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a geoengineering strategy to mitigate these effects by reducing incoming solar radiation. This study evaluated future trends and variability in rainfall and temperature extremes in the Philippines under GeoMIP (G6Solar and G6Sulfur) and ScenarioMIP (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) projections. Using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a suite of 10 climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), changes in extreme precipitation and temperature across different climate zones in the Philippines were assessed. Climate projections for the future (2041–2070) scenario were analyzed using bias correction, downscaling, and spatial interpolation techniques. Trend analysis was evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was assessed through statistical methods. The results show widespread warming and increased extreme precipitation, but these trends vary significantly across regions. Non-uniform responses emerge across scenarios, with some northern regions experiencing decreases in specific precipitation indices despite the broader warming trend under SRM and non-SRM conditions. These findings provide critical insights into the potential impacts of SRM on future climate extremes in the Philippines and guidance on climate policy recommendations for decision-makers and stakeholders.

The increasing global temperature and changing climate patterns have amplified the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, droughts, and heavy precipitation, significantly impacting agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a geoengineering strategy to mitigate these effects by reducing incoming solar radiation. This study evaluates future trends and variability in rainfall and temperature extremes in the Philippines under GeoMIP (G6Solar and G6Sulfur) and ScenarioMIP (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) projections. Using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and a suite of 10 climate indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), changes in extreme precipitation and temperature across different climate zones in the Philippines were assessed. Climate projections for future (2041–2070) scenario are analyzed using bias correction, downscaling, and spatial interpolation techniques. Trend analysis is conducted using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability is assessed through statistical methods. Results indicate a significant increase in extreme precipitation events and warming trends, with differences in SRM and non-SRM scenarios. These findings provide critical insights into the potential impacts of SRM on future climate extremes in the Philippines, for crafting potential adjustments and climate policy recommendations for stakeholders.

The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of a Summary for Policymakers and a longer report.

The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Forest ecosystems play an indispensable role in addressing various pressing sustainability and social-ecological challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. However, global forest loss has been, and still is today, an important issue. Here, based on spatially explicit data, we show that over the past 60 years (1960–2019), the global forest area has declined by 81.7 million ha (i.e. 10% more than the size of the entire Borneo island), with forest loss (437.3 million ha) outweighing forest gain (355.6 million ha). With this forest decline and the population increase (4.68 billion) over the period, the global forest per capita has decreased by over 60%, from 1.4 ha in 1960 to 0.5 ha in 2019. The spatiotemporal pattern of forest change supports the forest transition theory, with forest losses occurring primarily in the lower income countries in the tropics and forest gains in the higher income countries in the extratropics. Furthermore, economic growth has a stronger association with net forest gain than with net forest loss. Our results highlight the need to strengthen the support given to lower income countries, especially in the tropics, to help improve their capacity to minimize or end their forest losses. To help address the displacement of forest losses to the lower income countries in the tropics, higher income nations need to reduce their dependence on imported tropical forest products.

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. A warming planet could exacerbate long-standing environmental problems in the country. The paper explores this link in the management of forest ecosystems, marine ecosystems, and wastes. Natural ecosystems in the Philippines such as forests can play a critical role in both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Similarly, sound waste management could lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions while providing enhanced livelihood opportunities. A holistic approach to addressing these environmental challenges could lead to greater resilience to climate risks, as well as greenhouse gas reduction. Policymakers will do well to support research and development in ecosystems-based adaptation and mitigation.

Two related single-valued landscape fragmentation indices D and F are proposed, based on patch aggregation, shape complexity, and percent of the focal pixels on the landscape, and are computed using Fragstats metrics on a colonization landscape continuously fragmented over 36 years. The same was done for two existing single-valued fragmentation indices, i.e., the Matheron index based solely on normalized unlike joins, and the Normalized Hypsometric Curve (NHMC) index from GUIDOS Toolbox. All were plotted chronologically, and also against percent non-forest (%nf) of the landscape, and the trajectories were compared for behavior. The NHMC index starts high even if deforestation is low, and continues increasing even further as deforestation continues, while the other three indices all start close to zero and increase gradually. F mimics D very closely, and the Matheron index only behaves differently from F and D at the end of the data range. The deviation may be due to patch aggregation, which the Matheron index does not consider. An accepted single-valued fragmentation index computed from Fragstats landscape metrices could allow for cross-study comparisons relating fragmentation with any other attribute on or of the landscape, hopefully advancing the science of fragmentation in landscape ecology as cross-study generalizations would now be possible.

Laguna Lake is the largest source of fish catch from all lakes in the country providing food and livelihood to millions of people. Recently, there were attempts to remove all fish pens and cages from the lake, presumably because of their adverse impact on water quality and pollution. In this paper, we provide an overview of the lake ecology and we identify ways to manage the lake sustainably. For some time, it has been clear that the lake’s ecosystem is deteriorating putting at risk the food source and livelihoods of millions of people. The LLDA, the local government units, and various stakeholders have formulated concrete steps to ensure sustained fish production in the lake.

Global economic change and policy interventions are driving transitions from long-fallow swidden (LFS) systems to alternative land uses in Southeast Asia’s uplands. This study presents a systematic review of how these transitions impact upon livelihoods and ecosystem services in the region. Over 17 000 studies published between 1950 and 2015 were narrowed, based on relevance and quality, to 93 studies for further analysis. Our analysis of land-use transitions from swidden to intensified cropping systems showed several outcomes: more households had increased overall income, but these benefits came at significant cost such as reductions of customary practice, socio-economic wellbeing, livelihood options, and staple yields. Examining the effects of transitions on soil properties revealed negative impacts on soil organic carbon, cation-exchange capacity, and aboveground carbon. Taken together, the proximate and underlying drivers of the transitions from LFS to alternative land uses, especially intensified perennial and annual cash cropping, led to significant declines in pre-existing livelihood security and the ecosystem services supporting this security. Our results suggest that policies imposing land-use transitions on upland farmers so as to improve livelihoods and environments have been misguided; in the context of varied land uses, swidden agriculture can support livelihoods and ecosystem services that will help buffer the impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia.