Peter Barrett-Lee

Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating new cancer treatments. They are, however, expensive to conduct, particularly where long-term follow-up of participants is required. Tracking participants via routine datasets could provide a cost-effective alternative for ascertaining follow-up information required to evaluate disease outcomes. This project explores the potential for routine data to inform cancer trials, using, the historical National Cancer Data Repository (NCDR) for English NHS sites and, for validation, mature data available from the TACT trial. Datasets were matched using patients’ NHS number, date of birth (dob) and name/initials. Demographics, clinical characteristics and outcomes were assessed for agreement and completeness. Overall survival was compared between NCDR and TACT. A total of 3151 patients underwent linkage; 3047 (96.7%) of which had matched records. Extensive cleaning was required for some registry data fields, e.g. cause of death, whilst others had large amounts of missing data, e.g. tumour size (22.1%). Other data had high levels of matching such as dob (99.6%) and date of death (89.6%). There was no evidence of differential survival rates (8-year survival: TACT = 75% (95% CI 73, 76); NCDR = 76% (95% CI 74, 77)). Data quality and completeness requires improvement before routine data could be used for RCTs. Introduction of new routine datasets, including COSD, is welcomed although reporting of disease-recurrence events remains a concern. Prospective validation of such datasets is required before RCTs can confidently switch patient follow-up to utilise routinely collected NHS-based data. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00033683 , registered on 9 April 2002; ISRCTN79718493 , registered on 1 July 2001.

In a non-inferiority (NI) trial, analysis based on the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle is anti-conservative, so current guidelines recommend analysing on a per-protocol (PP) population in addition. However, PP analysis relies on the often implausible assumption of no confounders. Randomisation-based efficacy estimators (RBEEs) allow for treatment non-adherence while maintaining a comparison of randomised groups. Fischer et al. have developed an approach for estimating RBEEs in randomised trials with two active treatments, a common feature of NI trials. The aim of this paper was to demonstrate the use of RBEEs in NI trials using this approach, and to appraise the feasibility of these estimators as the primary analysis in NI trials. Two NI trials were used. One comparing two different dosing regimens for the maintenance of remission in people with ulcerative colitis (CODA), and the other comparing an orally administered treatment to an intravenously administered treatment in preventing skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from breast cancer (ZICE). Variables that predicted adherence in each of the trial arms, and were also independent of outcome, were sought in each of the studies. Structural mean models (SMMs) were fitted that conditioned on these variables, and the point estimates and confidence intervals compared to that found in the corresponding ITT and PP analyses. In the CODA study, no variables were found that differentially predicted treatment adherence while remaining independent of outcome. The SMM, using standard methodology, moved the point estimate closer to 0 (no difference between arms) compared to the ITT and PP analyses, but the confidence interval was still within the NI margin, indicating that the conclusions drawn would remain the same. In the ZICE study, cognitive functioning as measured by the corresponding domain of the QLQ-C30, and use of chemotherapy at baseline were both differentially associated with adherence while remaining independent of outcome. However, while the SMM again moved the point estimate closer to 0, the confidence interval was wide, overlapping with any NI margin that could be justified. Deriving RBEEs in NI trials with two active treatments can provide a randomisation-respecting estimate of treatment efficacy that accounts for treatment adherence, is straightforward to implement, but requires thorough planning during the design stage of the study to ensure that strong baseline predictors of treatment are captured. Extension of the approach to handle nonlinear outcome variables is also required. The CODA study: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT00708656 . Registered on 8 April 2008. The ZICE study trial: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT00326820 . Registered on 16 May 2006.

The Her2 receptor is overexpressed in up to 25 % of breast cancers and is associated with a poor prognosis. Around half of Her2+ breast cancers also express the estrogen receptor and treatment for such tumours can involve both endocrine and Her2-targeted therapies. However, despite preclinical data supporting the effectiveness of these agents, responses can vary widely in the clinical setting. In light of the increasing evidence pointing to the interplay between the tumour and its extracellular microenvironment as a significant determinant of therapeutic sensitivity and response here we investigated the impact of 3D matrix culture of breast cancer cells on their therapeutic sensitivity. A 3D Matrigel-based culture system was established and optimized for the growth of ER+/Her2+ breast cancer cell models. Growth of cells in response to trastuzumab and endocrine agents in 3D culture versus routine monolayer culture were assessed using cell counting and Ki67 staining. Endogenous and trastuzumab-modulated signalling pathway activity in 2D and 3D cultures were assessed using Western blotting. Breast cancer cells in 3D culture displayed an attenuated response to both endocrine agents and trastuzumab compared with cells cultured in traditional 2D monolayers. Underlying this phenomenon was an apparent matrix-induced shift from AKT to MAPK signalling; consequently, suppression of MAPK in 3D cultures restores therapeutic response. These data suggest that breast cancer cells in 3D culture display a reduced sensitivity to therapeutic agents which may be mediated by internal MAPK-mediated signalling. Targeting of adaptive pathways that maintain growth in 3D culture may represent an effective strategy to improve therapeutic response clinically.

Chromosomal instability (CIN) has been shown to be associated with drug resistance and poor clinical outcome in several cancer types. However, in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer we have previously demonstrated that extreme CIN is associated with improved clinical outcome, consistent with a negative impact of CIN on tumour fitness and growth. The aim of this current study was to validate this finding using previously defined CIN thresholds in a much larger prospective cohort from a randomised, controlled, clinical trial. As a surrogate measurement of CIN, dual centromeric fluorescence in situ hybridisation was performed for both chromosomes 2 and 15 on 1173 tumours from the breast cancer TACT trial (CRUK01/001). Each tumour was scored manually and the mean percentage of cells deviating from the modal centromere number was used to define four CIN groups (MCD1–4), where tumours in the MCD4 group were defined as having extreme CIN. In a multivariate analysis of disease-free survival, with a median follow-up of 91 months, increasing CIN was associated with improved outcome in patients with ER-negative cancer (P trend = 0.03). A similar pattern was seen in ER-negative/HER2-negative cancers (P_trend = 0.007). This prospective validation cohort study further substantiated the association between extreme CIN and improved outcome in ER-negative breast cancers. Identifying such patients with extreme CIN may help distinguish good from poor prognostic groups, and therefore support treatment and risk stratification in this aggressive breast cancer subtype.

Background: The annual recurrence rates of post-menopausal ER-positive breast cancers persist beyond the first 5 years of diagnosis and treatment and the mortality rates in this period are higher versus ER-negative cancers. Extended endocrine therapy past 5 years has been shown to be of benefit but is associated with increased toxicity and cost thus the ability to predict patients who are at highest risk of late relapse would be of significant benefit in clinical decision making in this context. β-catenin is an intracellular protein that undergoes Wnt-mediated nuclear translocation where it transactivates genes implicated in tumour development and progression. We have also previously reported that β-catenin can play a role in aggressive resistance that accompanies prolonged endocrine treatment in vitro. In this study, we thus investigated whether β-catenin expression in ER+ breast cancer was predictive of recurrence beyond 5 years in an analysis of three separate endocrine-treated cohorts. Methods: Associations between β-catenin gene expression and relapse free survival (RFS) were performed using the online KMplotter tool. Immunostaining for total β-catenin was performed on tissue samples from 3 ER+ primary breast cancer series with long-term follow-up data: Nottingham 2000 (n=384, tamoxifen-only); ABC (n=570; tamoxifen only); transATAC (n=743; tamoxifen or ansatrozole). The association between subcellular (nuclear or cytoplasmic) β-catenin expression and RFS was determined in (i) the entire cohort, (ii) the first 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus post-5 years. Results: KMplotter analysis of β-catenin in ER+, tamoxifen-treated patient samples (n=665) revealed a significant relationship with improved RFS in the post-five year cohort [HR: 0.48 (0.34-0.68); p=0.000019) versus the first 5 years [HR: 0.91 (0.61-1.36; p=0.64)]. No significant association was observed in untreated ER+ patients. In the Nottingham series, nuclear β-catenin positivity was significantly associated with improved survival in the 20-year follow-up for tamoxifen-treated patients (p=0.047) but not in the first five years (p=0.239). Cytoplasmic β-catenin did not associate with survival. Further analysis in the ABC series revealed an association between nuclear β-catenin positivity and improved survival for tamoxifen-treated patients in the entire cohort (HR: 0.52 (0.18, 0.55); p=0.00005). However, nuclear β-catenin was more strongly associated with improved outcome in the post 5-year treatment group (HR: 0.30 (0.14, 0.66); p=0.01) versus the first five years of treatment (HR: 0.33 (0.15,0.73); p=0.06). No significant associations were seen with cytoplasmic β-catenin. The transATAC trial material again revealed an association between presence of nuclear β-catenin and reduced distant recurrence in the post 5-years endocrine-treated cohort (HR: 0.54 (0.33, 0.91): x²=5.52, p=0.018) versus years 1-5 (HR: 1.16 (0.67, 2.01); x²=0.29, p=0.59). Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that nuclear β-catenin may represent a predictive biomarker for late relapse following tamoxifen treatment in ER+ breast cancer where, contrary to traditional hypotheses and pre-clinical data, its nuclear expression is strongly associated with good outcome post-five years of treatment. Citation Format: Stephen Hiscox, Chris Smith, Robert I Nicholson, Julia Gee, Adrian Harris, Judith Bliss, Eleftheria Kalaizak, Ivana Sestak, Mitch Dowsett, Jack Cuzick, Ian Ellis, Peter Barrett-Lee. Nuclear β-catenin negativity predicts for late relapse in ER+, tamoxifen-treated breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-06-01.

Background: The analysis of the level and distribution of HER2 protein expressed by cancer cells (HER2 status) is of great clinical value in the management of breast cancer patients both for the determination of the prognosis of disease and for identification of those patients who are eligible for anti-HER2 therapy. Accurate assessment of the HER2 status is essential for identifying patients which will benefit from HER2 targeted therapy. HER2 status in the UK is established using a two tier strategy with IHC as the initial test and subsequent reflex of equivocal results to in situ hybridization (ISH). IHC staining of the HER2 protein is graded as 0, 1+, 2+ or 3+ dependent upon the intensity of staining, cellular localisation and the percentage of cells positive in accordance with CAP/ASCO and UK guidelines. HER2 3+ cases are considered as positive, with HER2 2+ cases (equivocal) retested by ISH to ascertain the gene amplification status. Cases that are scored as 0 and 1+ by IHC have no additional testing and are classed as negative. The literature indicates that a subset of these IHC negative cases show HER2 gene amplification by FISH (range 1.1-11.5%). The aim of this audit is to evaluate the discordance rate of HER2 IHC negative, FISH positive breast cancer in the UK, with a secondary objective to resolve if this is related to the choice of antibody and assay platform used. Materials and methods: This audit selected a total of 600 sequential cases reported as HER2 negative on IHC, from three UK reference centres receiving cases from 29 different hospitals. The cases were given a unique identifying number and annonymised. Each of the three centres used a different IHC method for frontline HER2 testing with centre one using HercepTestTM (DAKO), centre two Pathway 4B5 (Roche), and centre three, Oracle (Leica Microsystems). HER2 gene amplification status was determined using dual colour FISH analysis, PathVysion (ABBOTT) fluorescence ISH (FISH) in a single centre to provide standardised methodology and assessment. HER2 was classed as amplified when the HER2/CEP 17 ratio was two or greater in accordance with UK guidelines. All cases which showed discordance between IHC and FISH were re-tested with each of the HER2 IHC platforms to discover whether these are truly discordant results or if the discrepancy is a consequence of the choice of antibody. Results: 16/600 (2.8%) unequivocal HER2 gene amplification (mean ratio >2.0) whilst 8/600 (1.2%) had borderline amplification status(mean ratio = or Conclusion: The observed level of discordance is well within the range of discordance rates reported by previous studies. The discrepancies could be due to inadequate quality fixation and/or inadequate sensitivity of the assay platforms used, or under scoring. A detailed analysis of possible assay related source of discrepancy is currently underway by repeating the analyses of the 24 discordant cases using like for like three assay platforms at an independent expert centre. Citation Format: Bharat Jasani, Fiona Campbell, Phillapa Jones, Jane Gilbert, James Dowd, Keith Miller, Merdol Ibrahim, Ian Ellis, Emma Hurley, Mary Falzon, Barrett-Lee Peter, Jane Starczynski. Audit of the accuracy of immunohistochemical (IHC) testing of HER2 negative status of breast cancer in the United Kingdom [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-10-03.

Introduction: TACT2 (CRUK/05/019), a multicentre randomized phase III trial in patients with node +ve or high risk node -ve invasive EBC with E-CMF as control tested two hypotheses in a 2x2 factorial design, with previously presented results showing: i) no evidence of a benefit from accelerated 2-weekly epirubicin (aE) compared to standard 3-weekly epirubicin (E) (Cameron 2012); and ii) capecitabine (X) gives equivalent efficacy but preferential side-effect profile to CMF (Canney 2014). Studies suggest that Androgen receptor (AR) expression may be associated with improved outcome in early breast cancer. We performed an analysis of AR expression in TACT2 patients to test the hypothesis that AR would represent an independent predictor of residual risk following adjuvant therapy. Methods: Tumour samples were collected prospectively from 3803/4391 TACT2 patients, Tissue micro-arrays were constructed as per published guidelines and central AR, ER, PgR, HER2, Ki67, CK5/6, EGFr and BCL2 staining performed and quantified by imaged analysis for ER, PgR, HER2, Ki67 and BCL2. EGFr and CK5/6 were dichotomised by light microscopy evaluation of cores. After planned biomarker analyses had been performed, a subset of TACT2 cases for whom remaining tissue was available were analysed for AR expression. Data for 1878 cases was available for this analysis (49% of those consenting to tissue collection). AR expression was dichotomised as AR-ve (10%). Log-rank tests were used to explore the prognostic value of AR on time to recurrence (TTR). Cox-regression models were used to test the independent prognostic value of AR in the presence of tumour size, grade, nodal status, and biological subtypes. Marker by treatment interaction terms were included in models to test the predictive value of AR for both randomised treatment comparisons. Results: 1398/1878 (74%) patients were classed as AR+ve and 480/1878 (26%) as AR-ve. The proportion of AR+ve patients differed significantly between biological subtypes (Luminal A 269/293 (92%); Luminal B 784/928 (84%); HER+ve 86/111 (77%); Basal-like 37/216 (17%); 5-marker-ve 37/93 (40%); χ2 p<0.001) 117/480 (24%) AR-ve patients had a TTR event compared with 183/1398 (13%) AR+ve patients (HR for AR-ve compared to AR+ve =2.05 95%CI 1.63-2.59; p<0.001). AR expression remained independently prognostic following adjustment for nodal status, grade, tumour size and biological subtype (HR1.68, 95%CI 1.26-2.25; p<0.001). Exploratory analysis suggested the prognostic impact of AR might be predominantly in luminal B and 5-marker-ve breast cancers; however the interaction between subtype and AR was not statistically significant. No differential treatment effect between AR subtypes was observed for either randomised treatment comparison (E/aE or CMF/X). Conclusion: AR is an independent prognostic marker for residual risk following chemotherapy in this large study which included patients with both luminal and non-luminal cancers. AR expression patterns differ between molecular subtypes of early breast cancer, with evidence suggesting the impact of AR on residual risk may also differ between subtypes. AR is currently being explored as another potential target for therapy so these data could have future clinical relevance. Citation Format: Jane Bayani, James Morden, Sunil Skaria, Peter Bliss, Robert Grieve, Adrian Harnett, Chris Bradley, Diana Ritchie, Peter Barrett-Lee, Peter Canney, David Cameron, Judith Bliss, John Bartlett. Androgen receptor expression is an independent marker of lower residual risk in the TACT2 trial (CRUK/05/019) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-11-03.

Introduction: Subgroups within sporadic triple negative breast cancers (TNBCs) appear to share impaired DNA damage response mechanisms with BRCA1/2 mutation-associated breast cancers. This has been hypothesised to confer particular sensitivity to DNA-damaging platinum chemotherapy. The TNT trial, a randomized phase III trial in women with metastatic or recurrent locally advanced TNBC or BRCA1/2 mutation-associated breast cancer, aimed to test this hypothesis and examine treatment effect in biological subgroups. Patients & Methods: Eligible patients had either ER-, PR-, HER2- breast cancer or were known BRCA1/2 carriers (any ER/PR/HER2). Patients were randomized (1:1) to receive either C (AUC 6 q3wk) or D (100mg/m2 q3wk) for 6-8 cycles or until disease progression if sooner and could cross over to the alternative treatment on confirmed progression. Ineligible patients included those who had ECOG performance status >2, received adjuvant taxane therapy in the last 12 mths, any previous treatment with a platinum chemotherapy, or previous non-anthracycline chemotherapy for metastatic disease. For consenting patients a blood sample and archived tissue samples were obtained for BRCA1/2 genotyping and central biomarker analysis (primary tumour, lymph nodes and recurrent tumour biopsy if available) of subtypes within TNBC and biomarkers of DNA repair deficiency. The primary endpoint was RECIST objective tumour response up to cycle 6 of randomised treatment. Secondary endpoints included toxicity, progression free survival (PFS), time to progression and overall survival. TNT aimed to detect a 15% improvement in ORR with C compared to D, with planned target sample size range of 370-450 depending on assumed ORR in D patients (2-sided α=0.05, power=90%). 376 (188 C, 188 D) were recruited from 74 UK centres between Apr 08 and Mar 14. Results: A snapshot of the data was taken on 30/5/14 at which point 336 (89.4%) patients had experienced a PFS event, with overall median PFS time of 4.4 mths. Median age of patients was 55 yrs (IQR 48-63). 366/376 (97%) patients had TNBC of whom 18 were also known BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, with the remaining 10 patients receptor +ve and BRCA1/2 carriers. 338/376 (90%) had metastatic and 38/376 (10%) recurrent locally advanced disease. 53% had liver or lung metastases affecting the parenchyma and 34% had received previous adjuvant taxane therapy. Median time from initial diagnosis to entering TNT was 2.2 yrs (IQR 1.5-3.5). Primary tumour tissue has currently been received for 277 patients, blood from 286 patients and recurrent tumour tissue from 85 patients. Discussion: TNT will report evidence on the activity of single agent platinum chemotherapy compared with single agent taxane in patients with TNBC and BRCA1/2 associated breast cancer. Correlative analyses of BRCA1/2 mutation status, subtypes and DNA repair biomarkers will also be reported. TNT will be the first randomised trial to report the activity of platinum compared with standard chemotherapy within TNBC subtypes and in relation to BRCA1/2 mutation status and DNA repair biomarkers. Safety, tolerability and response to crossover treatment will also be presented. Citation Format: Andrew Tutt, Paul Ellis, Lucy Kilburn, Cheryl Gilett, Sarah Pinder, Jacinta Abraham, Sophie Barrett, Peter Barrett-Lee, Stephen Chan, Maggie Cheang, Mitch Dowsett, Lisa Fox, Patrycja Gazinska, Anita Grigoriadis, Alexander Gutin, Catherine Harper-Wynne, Matthew Hatton, Sarah Kernaghan, Jerry Lanchbury, James Morden, Julie Owen, Jyoti Parikh, Peter Parker, Nazneen Rahman, Rebecca Roylance, Adam Shaw, Ian Smith, Rose Thompson, Kirsten Timms, Holly Tovey, Andrew Wardley, Gregory Wilson, Mark Harries, Judith Bliss. The TNT trial: A randomized phase III trial of carboplatin (C) compared with docetaxel (D) for patients with metastatic or recurrent locally advanced triple negative or BRCA1/2 breast cancer (CRUK/07/012) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Seventh Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2014 Dec 9-13; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2015;75(9 Suppl):Abstract nr S3-01.