Diogo Alagador

Context: Ecological corridors that are high in biodiversity potential and stable under climate change are central to long-term conservation planning. Yet spatial prioritization frameworks rarely integrate land-use resistance and climate stability into a unified approach, limiting their operational value for landscape management and policy. Objectives: We aimed to develop an ecological connectivity framework that jointly incorporates land-use resistance and climate stability to map linkages among protected areas, and to quantify and communicate methodological uncertainty arising from key parameterization choices. Methods: We applied the framework to Portugal's terrestrial protected-area network. Using a full factorial design, we varied land-use resistance, climate resistance, and dispersal capacity across multiple weightings to generate optimized linkage solutions. Selection-frequency maps derived from these solutions fed a second optimization round, producing an ensemble connectivity solution and buffered corridors. Results: Individual solutions covered 0.74% of Portugal's unprotected land; the ensemble covered 0.07%, rising to 2.3% after a 1 km buffer. Dispersal capacity parameterization introduced greater uncertainty in connectivity outcomes than land-use or climate resistance scores, suggesting it deserves particular attention in future studies. Protected areas in the Central–North region emerged as the most critical network hubs, with the highest centrality under both resistance gradients. The ensemble highlighted areas of high concordance across parameterizations, improving the robustness of spatial priorities. Conclusions: Integrating land-use and climate resistance identifies corridors that are both functional and climate-resilient. Explicitly mapping uncertainty and producing ensemble-prioritized linkages improves the reliability of spatial recommendations, offering planners a practical tool for embedding connectivity targets into conservation and land management decisions.

Systematic conservation planning ( SCP ) is an operational and scientific framework that assists in deciding where, how, and when to implement conservation intervention. Studies using SCP approaches have proliferated due to their immediate relevance for applied conservation. For example, they can help identify cost‐effective opportunities for expanding areas under conservation management to achieve high‐level policy goals such as those of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Yet SCP can be conducted in various ways, and results can vary depending on problem formulation, parameterizations, contexts, and prioritization approaches. There is a need to facilitate comparison of SCP studies to understand key criteria and assumptions made in the planning process. Here, we propose a standardized reporting protocol for SCP that is readily applicable across study aims, realms, and spatial scales. The new Overview and Design Protocol for Systematic Conservation Planning ( ODPSCP ) describes the key steps from the design to the computational stages of SCP . It enables researchers, scientific editors, and decision‐ and policymakers to assess the scope and comprehensiveness of SCP exercises. To facilitate uptake and ease of reporting, the protocol is openly available through an interactive web interface and which can be further enhanced following methodological advancements in conservation planning. We encourage the conservation community to adopt the reporting protocol to promote transparency and reproducibility, standardized reporting as well as facilitate peer review and independent evaluation.

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is an operational and scientific framework that assists in deciding where, how and when to implement conservation intervention, given known constraints and preferential weights. Studies using SCP approaches have proliferated due to their immediate relevance for applied conservation. For example, they can help identify cost-effective opportunities for expanding areas under conservation management to achieve high-level policy goals such as those of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Yet SCP can be conducted in various ways and results can vary depending on problem formulation, parameterizations, contexts and prioritization approaches. There is a need to facilitate comparison of SCP studies to understand key criteria and assumptions made in the planning process. Here, we propose a standardized reporting protocol for SCP that is readily applicable across study aims, realms, and spatial scales. The new Overview and Design Protocol for Systematic Conservation Planning (ODPSCP) describes the key steps from the design to the computational stages of SCP. It enables researchers, scientific editors, and decision- and policymakers to assess the scope and comprehensiveness of SCP exercises. To facilitate uptake and ease of reporting, the protocol is openly available through an interactive web interface and will be further enhanced in the future following methodological advancements in conservation planning. We encourage the conservation community to adopt the reporting protocol to promote transparency and reproducibility, better reporting as well as facilitate peer review and independent evaluation.

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision‐making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species’ range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high‐persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species’ dynamics under climate change.

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st‐century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon‐intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which utilizes techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and codesign practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting & improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes.

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.