Carin Andrén Aronsson

Introduction: Type 1 diabetes is a chronic autoimmune disease, preceded by the presence of islet autoantibodies, a preclinical state defined as islet autoimmunity. Several environmental exposures have been associated with the initiation of islet autoimmunity but the triggers remain largely unknown. Rapid growth and weight gain during childhood are some of the exposures that have been proposed to promote islet autoimmunity. A high intake of protein and animal milks in early childhood is consistently associated with increased later obesity. Growth during early childhood is directly related to dietary intake and especially protein intake and this association has been linked to increased risk of islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes. The Intensive Dietary and Activity Counselling (IDAC) study aims to determine whether a healthy lifestyle counselling from age 3 months to age 2 years improves β-cell health in children with increased risk for islet autoimmunity. Methods and analysis: The IDAC study is a randomised trial (1:1 allocation) with two parallel groups, aiming to enrol 1244 children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes before the age of 4 months. Participants will be randomised to either the control or intervention group based on the child’s current breastfeeding status (currently breastfeeding or no longer breastfeeding). The intervention group will receive regular dietary and physical activity counselling. The primary outcome is β-cell health at 36 months, assessed by fasting and stimulated proinsulin-to-C-peptide ratio. Secondary outcomes include accelerated growth during infancy, overweight at 36 months, and time to development of persistent confirmed islet autoantibodies or type 1 diabetes. Growth measures, blood samples for serological markers, stool samples, dietary intake (nutrients and food group data) and questionnaire data will be collected regularly throughout the study period. Regression models will be used to estimate the effects of the intervention on the primary outcome. Ethics and dissemination: The research protocol was approved by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (dnr 2024-05217-01, 2024-08622-02, 2025-01759-02). Study findings will be presented at national and international conferences, submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals, shared on social media and disseminated through patient-education materials. Trial registration number: NCT06670625 .

Background Outliers can influence regression model parameters and change the direction of the estimated effect, over-estimating or under-estimating the strength of the association between a response variable and an exposure of interest. Identifying visit-level outliers from longitudinal data with continuous time-dependent covariates is important when the distribution of such variable is highly skewed. Objectives The primary objective was to identify potential outliers at follow-up visits using interquartile range (IQR) statistic and assess their influence on estimated Cox regression parameters. Methods Study was motivated by a large TEDDY dietary longitudinal and time-to-event data with a continuous time-varying vitamin B₁₂ intake as the exposure of interest and development of Islet Autoimmunity (IA) as the response variable. An IQR algorithm was applied to the TEDDY dataset to detect potential outliers at each visit. To assess the impact of detected outliers, data were analyzed using the extended time-dependent Cox model with robust sandwich estimator. Partial residual diagnostic plots were examined for highly influential outliers. Results Extreme vitamin B₁₂ observations that were cases of IA had a stronger influence on the Cox regression model than non-cases. Identified outliers changed the direction of hazard ratios, standard errors, or the strength of association with the risk of developing IA. Conclusion At the exploratory data analysis stage, the IQR algorithm can be used as a data quality control tool to identify potential outliers at the visit level, which can be further investigated.

Outliers can influence regression model parameters and change the direction of the estimated effect, over-estimating or under-estimating the strength of the association between a response variable and an exposure of interest. Identifying visit-level outliers from longitudinal data with continuous time-dependent covariates is important especially when the distribution of such variable is highly skewed at follow-up visits. The primary objective was to identify potential outliers at follow-up visits using interquartile range (IQR) statistic, motivated by a large TEDDY dietary longitudinal and time-to-event data with a continuous time varying vitamin B12 intake as the exposure of interest and time to developing Islet Autoimmunity (IA) as the response variable. The IQR method was also applied to simulated data. To assess the impact of IQR-method detected outliers, data was analyzed using Cox-proportional hazard model with robust sandwich estimator. Partial residual diagnostic plots were used to detect highly influential outliers. Results showed how some of the detected outliers had large influence on the Cox regression model and changed both the direction of hazard ratios and the strength of association with the risk of developing IA. In conclusion, the IQR method is useful in identifying potential outliers at visit-level which can be further investigated.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether iron intake and genetically determined iron overload interact in predisposing to the development of childhood islet autoimmunity (IA) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study, 7,770 genetically high-risk children were followed from birth until the development of IA and progression to T1D. Exposures included energy-adjusted iron intake in the first 3 years of life and a genetic risk score (GRS) for increased circulating iron. RESULTS: We found a U-shaped association between iron intake and risk of GAD antibody as the first autoantibody. In children with GRS ≥2 iron risk alleles, high iron intake was associated with an increased risk of IA, with insulin as first autoantibody (adjusted hazard ratio 1.71 [95% CI 1.14; 2.58]) compared with moderate iron intake. CONCLUSIONS: Iron intake may alter the risk of IA in children with high-risk HLA haplogenotypes.

Background/Objective. Growth and obesity have been associated with increased risk of islet autoimmunity (IA) and progression to type 1 diabetes. We aimed to estimate the effect of energy-yielding macronutrient intake on the development of IA through BMI. Research Design and Methods. Genetically at-risk children (n = 5,084) in Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the USA, who were autoantibody negative at 2 years of age, were followed to the age of 8 years, with anthropometric measurements and 3-day food records collected biannually. Of these, 495 (9.7%) children developed IA. Mediation analysis for time-varying covariates (BMI z-score) and exposure (energy intake) was conducted. Cox proportional hazard method was used in sensitivity analysis. Results. We found an indirect effect of total energy intake (estimates: indirect effect 0.13 [0.05, 0.21]) and energy from protein (estimates: indirect effect 0.06 [0.02, 0.11]), fat (estimates: indirect effect 0.03 [0.01, 0.05]), and carbohydrates (estimates: indirect effect 0.02 [0.00, 0.04]) (kcal/day) on the development of IA. A direct effect was found for protein, expressed both as kcal/day (estimates: direct effect 1.09 [0.35, 1.56]) and energy percentage (estimates: direct effect 72.8 [3.0, 98.0]) and the development of GAD autoantibodies (GADA). In the sensitivity analysis, energy from protein (kcal/day) was associated with increased risk for GADA, hazard ratio 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.53), . Conclusions. This study confirms that higher total energy intake is associated with higher BMI, which leads to higher risk of the development of IA. A diet with larger proportion of energy from protein has a direct effect on the development of GADA.

High gluten intake is associated with increased risk of celiac disease (CD) in children at genetic risk. We aimed to investigate if different dietary gluten sources up to age 2 y confer different risks of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) and CD in children at genetic risk. Three-day food records were collected at ages 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 mo from 2088 Swedish genetically at-risk children participating in a 15-y follow-up cohort study on type 1 diabetes and CD. Screening for CD was performed with tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (tTGA). The primary outcome was CDA, defined as persistent tTGA positivity. The secondary outcome was CD, defined as having a biopsy specimen showing Marsh score ≥ 2 or an averaged tTGA level ≥ 100 Units. Cox regression adjusted for total gluten intake estimated HRs with 95% CIs for daily intake of gluten sources. During follow-up, 487 (23.3%) children developed CDA and 242 (11.6%) developed CD. Daily intake of ≤158 g porridge at age 9 mo was associated with increased risk of CDA (HR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.23; P = 0.026) compared with no intake. A high daily bread intake (>18.3 g) at age 12 mo was associated with increased risk of both CDA (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.05; P = 0.023) and CD (HR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.91; P = 0.019) compared with no intake. At age 18 mo, milk cereal drink was associated with an increased risk of CD (HR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.33; P = 0.047) per 200-g/d increased intake. No association was found for other gluten sources up to age 24 mo and risk of CDA or CD. High daily intakes of bread at age 12 mo and of milk cereal drink during the second year of life are associated with increased risk of both CDA and CD in genetically at-risk children.

Objectives: An observed variation in the risk of celiac disease, according to the season of birth, suggests that vitamin D may affect the development of the disease. The aim of this study was to investigate if vitamin D concentration is associated with the risk of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) in genetically at-risk children.Study Design: Children prospectively followed in the multinational The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young study, conducted at six centers in Europe and the US, were selected for a 1-to-3 nested case–control study. In total, 281 case–control sets were identified. CDA was defined as positivity for tissue transglutaminase autoantibodies (tTGA) on two or more consecutive visits. Vitamin D was measured as 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in all plasma samples prior to, and including, the first tTGA positive visit. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the association between 25(OH)D and risk of CDA.Results: No significant association was seen between 25(OH)D concentrations (per 5 nmol/L increase) and risk for CDA development during early infancy (odds ratio [OR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.04) or childhood (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97–1.07). When categorizing 25(OH)D concentrations, there was an increased risk of CDA with 25(OH)D concentrations 75 nmol/L (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.28–3.44) in early infancy, as compared with 50–75 nmol/L.Conclusion: This study indicates that 25(OH)D concentrations 75 nmol/L during early infancy were associated with an increased risk of developing CDA in genetically at-risk children. The non-linear relationship raises the need for more studies on the possible role of 25(OH)D in the relation to celiac disease onset.

Two Lactobacillus strains have proven anti-inflammatory properties by reducing pro-inflammatory responses to antigens. This randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial tested the hypothesis that L. plantarum HEAL9 and L. paracasei 8700:2 suppress ongoing celiac disease autoimmunity in genetically at risk children on a gluten-containing diet in a longitudinally screening study for celiac disease. Seventy-eight children with celiac disease autoimmunity participated of whom 40 received 10¹⁰ CFU/day of L. plantarum HEAL9 and L. paracasei 8700:2 (probiotic group) and 38 children maltodextrin (placebo group) for six months. Blood samples were drawn at zero, three and six months and phenotyping of peripheral blood lymphocytes and IgA and IgG autoantibodies against tissue transglutaminase (tTG) were measured. In the placebo group, naïve CD45RA+ Th cells decreased (p = 0.002) whereas effector and memory CD45RO+ Th cells increased (p = 0.003). In contrast, populations of cells expressing CD4+CD25^highCD45RO+CCR4+ increased in the placebo group (p = 0.001). Changes between the groups were observed for NK cells (p = 0.038) and NKT cells (p = 0.008). Median levels of IgA-tTG decreased more significantly over time in the probiotic (p = 0.013) than in the placebo (p = 0.043) group whereas the opposite was true for IgG-tTG (p = 0.062 respective p = 0.008). In conclusion, daily oral administration of L. plantarum HEAL9 and L. paracasei 8700:2 modulate the peripheral immune response in children with celiac disease autoimmunity.

Probiotics are linked to positive regulatory effects on the immune system. The aim of the study was to examine the association between the exposure of probiotics via dietary supplements or via infant formula by the age of 1 year and the development of celiac disease autoimmunity (CDA) and celiac disease among a cohort of 6520 genetically susceptible children. Use of probiotics during the first year of life was reported by 1460 children. Time-to-event analysis was used to examine the associations. Overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with either CDA (n = 1212) (HR 1.15; 95%CI 0.99, 1.35; p = 0.07) or celiac disease (n = 455) (HR 1.11; 95%CI 0.86, 1.43; p = 0.43) when adjusting for known risk factors. Intake of probiotic dietary supplements, however, was associated with a slightly increased risk of CDA (HR 1.18; 95%CI 1.00, 1.40; p = 0.043) compared to children who did not get probiotics. It was concluded that the overall exposure of probiotics during the first year of life was not associated with CDA or celiac disease in children at genetic risk.