Alan Grafen
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Previous Organizations / Institutes
The organizations / institutes from the scholar's other articles in the past ten years
Research Subjects
Alan Grafen has a total of 175 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
Rufus A. Johnstone
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
5 shared publicationsMark Ridley
Departments of Anthropology and Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, U.S.A.
4 shared publications- Stuart Andrew West
Department of Biology, University of Oxford
4 shared publications - Andy Gardner
School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
2 shared publications H. C. J. Godfray
2 shared publicationsH. Jane Brockmann
University of Florida
2 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 10 November 2026
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Journal of Evolutionary Biology
Functional explanations for division of labour
Division of labour, when cooperating individuals specialise in complementary tasks, is a pervasive and diverse biological phenomenon. Understanding the reasons it ultimately evolves and the conditions that promote it are fundamental to evolutionary biology. Previous research identifies three broad reasons division of labour is favourable: between-individual differences, sufficiently strong performance trade-offs, and interactions between performers. Focusing on groups with aligned inclusive fitness interests, we show these principles are robust across a wider range of biological scenarios, including groups with multiple types of individuals, performing multiple tasks, with discrete or continuous units of performance, and where selection favours a balance of tasks rather than simply more of each. Division of labour can be favoured at the individual level without a resource trade-off, and even when some tasks exhibit diminishing returns. Larger groups are more likely to divide labour, and we discuss when complete specialisation is expected. Our framework provides a general classification of division of labour, highlighting the common thread underlying different proximate mechanisms, and can be tailored to specific biological systems.
- 10 November 2026
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Journal of Evolutionary Biology
Open AccessFunctional explanations for division of labour
Division of labour, when cooperating individuals specialise in complementary tasks, is a pervasive and diverse biological phenomenon. Understanding the reasons it ultimately evolves and the conditions that promote it are fundamental to evolutionary biology. Previous research identifies three broad reasons division of labour is favourable: between-individual differences, sufficiently strong performance trade-offs, and interactions between performers. Focusing on groups with aligned inclusive fitness interests, we show these principles are robust across a wider range of biological scenarios, including groups with multiple types of individuals, performing multiple tasks, with discrete or continuous units of performance, and where selection favours a balance of tasks rather than simply more of each. Division of labour can be favoured at the individual level without a resource trade-off, and even when some tasks exhibit diminishing returns. Larger groups are more likely to divide labour, and we discuss when complete specialisation is expected. Our framework provides a general classification of division of labour, highlighting the common thread underlying different proximate mechanisms, and can be tailored to specific biological systems.
- 8 May 2024
- Published by Taylor & Francis
- p. 67-80
What distinctions are usefully drawn today between natural and sexual selection?
The logical cogency of Darwin’s original distinction between natural and sexual selection is considered first in its own terms, and then in the light of Mendelian genetics. It is argued that Darwin takes two steps, first to define what will be called “individual-based selection” (and is often called natural selection when the distinction with sexual selection is not being focused on), and then the distinction between natural selection (sensu stricto) and sexual selection. Current formal versions of defining “individual-based selection” are discussed. Prospects for, and possible reasons for, articulating mathematically the distinction between natural and sexual selection are considered. A “levels-of-selection” interpretation is proposed of Darwin’s famous withdrawal of his sex ratio argument in the second edition of the Descent.
- 8 May 2024
- Published by Taylor & Francis
- p. 67-80
What distinctions are usefully drawn today between natural and sexual selection?
The logical cogency of Darwin’s original distinction between natural and sexual selection is considered first in its own terms, and then in the light of Mendelian genetics. It is argued that Darwin takes two steps, first to define what will be called “individual-based selection” (and is often called natural selection when the distinction with sexual selection is not being focused on), and then the distinction between natural selection (sensu stricto) and sexual selection. Current formal versions of defining “individual-based selection” are discussed. Prospects for, and possible reasons for, articulating mathematically the distinction between natural and sexual selection are considered. A “levels-of-selection” interpretation is proposed of Darwin’s famous withdrawal of his sex ratio argument in the second edition of the Descent.
- Open Access
- 6 July 2022
- Published by Springer Nature in Nature Communications
- Vol. 13 (1) , 1-19
Multiple social encounters can eliminate Crozier’s paradox and stabilise genetic kin recognition
Crozier’s paradox suggests that genetic kin recognition will not be evolutionarily stable. The problem is that more common tags (markers) are more likely to be recognised and helped. This causes common tags to increase in frequency, and hence eliminates the genetic variability that is required for genetic kin recognition. It has therefore been assumed that genetic kin recognition can only be stable if there is some other factor maintaining tag diversity, such as the advantage of rare alleles in host-parasite interactions. We show that allowing for multiple social encounters before each social interaction can eliminate Crozier’s paradox, because it allows individuals with rare tags to find others with the same tag. We also show that rare tags are better indicators of relatedness, and hence better at helping individuals avoid interactions with non-cooperative cheats. Consequently, genetic kin recognition provides an advantage to rare tags that maintains tag diversity, and stabilises itself.
- 6 July 2022
- Published by Springer Nature in Nature Communications
- Vol. 13 (1) , 1-19
Open AccessMultiple social encounters can eliminate Crozier’s paradox and stabilise genetic kin recognition
Crozier’s paradox suggests that genetic kin recognition will not be evolutionarily stable. The problem is that more common tags (markers) are more likely to be recognised and helped. This causes common tags to increase in frequency, and hence eliminates the genetic variability that is required for genetic kin recognition. It has therefore been assumed that genetic kin recognition can only be stable if there is some other factor maintaining tag diversity, such as the advantage of rare alleles in host-parasite interactions. We show that allowing for multiple social encounters before each social interaction can eliminate Crozier’s paradox, because it allows individuals with rare tags to find others with the same tag. We also show that rare tags are better indicators of relatedness, and hence better at helping individuals avoid interactions with non-cooperative cheats. Consequently, genetic kin recognition provides an advantage to rare tags that maintains tag diversity, and stabilises itself.
- Open Access
- 7 February 2021
- Published by Wiley in Ecology and Evolution
- Vol. 11 (5) , 1970-1983
Extending the range of additivity in using inclusive fitness
Inclusive fitness is a concept widely utilized by social biologists as the quantity organisms appear designed to maximize. However, inclusive fitness theory has long been criticized on the (uncontested) grounds that other quantities, such as offspring number, predict gene frequency changes accurately in a wider range of mathematical models. Here, we articulate a set of modeling assumptions that extend the range of scenarios in which inclusive fitness can be applied. We reanalyze recent formal analyses that searched for, but did not find, inclusive fitness maximization. We show (a) that previous models have not used Hamilton's definition of inclusive fitness, (b) a reinterpretation of Hamilton's definition that makes it usable in this context, and (c) that under the assumption of probabilistic mixing of phenotypes, inclusive fitness is indeed maximized in these models. We also show how to understand mathematically, and at an individual level, the definition of inclusive fitness, in an explicit population genetic model in which exact additivity is not assumed. We hope that in articulating these modeling assumptions and providing formal support for inclusive fitness maximization, we help bridge the gap between empiricists and theoreticians, which in some ways has been widening, demonstrating to mathematicians why biologists are content to use inclusive fitness, and offering one way to utilize inclusive fitness in general models of social behavior.
- 7 February 2021
- Published by Wiley in Ecology and Evolution
- Vol. 11 (5) , 1970-1983
Open AccessExtending the range of additivity in using inclusive fitness
Inclusive fitness is a concept widely utilized by social biologists as the quantity organisms appear designed to maximize. However, inclusive fitness theory has long been criticized on the (uncontested) grounds that other quantities, such as offspring number, predict gene frequency changes accurately in a wider range of mathematical models. Here, we articulate a set of modeling assumptions that extend the range of scenarios in which inclusive fitness can be applied. We reanalyze recent formal analyses that searched for, but did not find, inclusive fitness maximization. We show (a) that previous models have not used Hamilton's definition of inclusive fitness, (b) a reinterpretation of Hamilton's definition that makes it usable in this context, and (c) that under the assumption of probabilistic mixing of phenotypes, inclusive fitness is indeed maximized in these models. We also show how to understand mathematically, and at an individual level, the definition of inclusive fitness, in an explicit population genetic model in which exact additivity is not assumed. We hope that in articulating these modeling assumptions and providing formal support for inclusive fitness maximization, we help bridge the gap between empiricists and theoreticians, which in some ways has been widening, demonstrating to mathematicians why biologists are content to use inclusive fitness, and offering one way to utilize inclusive fitness in general models of social behavior.
- Open Access
- 1 January 2021
- Published by Wiley in Ecology and Evolution
- Vol. 11 (2) , 735-742
A simple completion of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection
Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection shows that the part of the rate of change of mean fitness that is due to natural selection equals the additive genetic variance in fitness. Fisher embedded this result in a model of total fitness, adding terms for deterioration of the environment and density dependence. Here, a quantitative genetic version of this neglected model is derived that relaxes its assumptions that the additive genetic variance in fitness and the rate of deterioration of the environment do not change over time, allows population size to vary, and includes an input of mutational variance. The resulting formula for total rate of change in mean fitness contains two terms more than Fisher's original, representing the effects of stabilizing selection, on the one hand, and of mutational variance, on the other, making clear for the first time that the fundamental theorem deals only with natural selection that is directional (as opposed to stabilizing) on the underlying traits. In this model, the total (rather than just the additive) genetic variance increases mean fitness. The unstructured population allows an explanation of Fisher's concept of fitness as simply birth rate minus mortality rate, and building up to the definition in structured populations.
- 1 January 2021
- Published by Wiley in Ecology and Evolution
- Vol. 11 (2) , 735-742
Open AccessA simple completion of Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection
Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection shows that the part of the rate of change of mean fitness that is due to natural selection equals the additive genetic variance in fitness. Fisher embedded this result in a model of total fitness, adding terms for deterioration of the environment and density dependence. Here, a quantitative genetic version of this neglected model is derived that relaxes its assumptions that the additive genetic variance in fitness and the rate of deterioration of the environment do not change over time, allows population size to vary, and includes an input of mutational variance. The resulting formula for total rate of change in mean fitness contains two terms more than Fisher's original, representing the effects of stabilizing selection, on the one hand, and of mutational variance, on the other, making clear for the first time that the fundamental theorem deals only with natural selection that is directional (as opposed to stabilizing) on the underlying traits. In this model, the total (rather than just the additive) genetic variance increases mean fitness. The unstructured population allows an explanation of Fisher's concept of fitness as simply birth rate minus mortality rate, and building up to the definition in structured populations.
- Open Access
- 9 March 2020
- Published by The Royal Society in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Vol. 375 (1797) , 20190356
The Price equation and reproductive value
The Price equation is widely recognized as capturing conceptually important properties of natural selection, and is often used to derive versions of Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection, the secondary theorems of natural selection and other significant results. However, class structure is not usually incorporated into these arguments. From the starting point of Fisher’s original connection between fitness and reproductive value, a principled way of incorporating reproductive value and structured populations into the Price equation is explained, with its implications for precise meanings of (two distinct kinds of) reproductive value and of fitness. Once the Price equation applies to structured populations, then the other equations follow. The fundamental theorem itself has a special place among these equations, not only because it always incorporated class structure (and its method is followed for general class structures), but also because that is the result that justifies the important idea that these equations identify the effect of natural selection. The precise definitions of reproductive value and fitness have striking and unexpected features. However, a theoretical challenge emerges from the articulation of Fisher’s structure: is it possible to retain the ecological properties of fitness as well as its evolutionary out-of-equilibrium properties? This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.
- 9 March 2020
- Published by The Royal Society in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Vol. 375 (1797) , 20190356
Open AccessThe Price equation and reproductive value
The Price equation is widely recognized as capturing conceptually important properties of natural selection, and is often used to derive versions of Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection, the secondary theorems of natural selection and other significant results. However, class structure is not usually incorporated into these arguments. From the starting point of Fisher’s original connection between fitness and reproductive value, a principled way of incorporating reproductive value and structured populations into the Price equation is explained, with its implications for precise meanings of (two distinct kinds of) reproductive value and of fitness. Once the Price equation applies to structured populations, then the other equations follow. The fundamental theorem itself has a special place among these equations, not only because it always incorporated class structure (and its method is followed for general class structures), but also because that is the result that justifies the important idea that these equations identify the effect of natural selection. The precise definitions of reproductive value and fitness have striking and unexpected features. However, a theoretical challenge emerges from the articulation of Fisher’s structure: is it possible to retain the ecological properties of fitness as well as its evolutionary out-of-equilibrium properties? This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.
- 1 November 2018
- Published by Elsevier in Journal of Theoretical Biology
- Vol. 456, 175-189
The left hand side of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection
- 1 November 2018
- Published by Elsevier in Journal of Theoretical Biology
- Vol. 456, 175-189
The left hand side of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection
- Open Access
- 1 October 2018
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics
- Vol. 135 (6) , 393-394
The fundamental theorem of natural selection
- 1 October 2018
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics
- Vol. 135 (6) , 393-394
Open AccessThe fundamental theorem of natural selection
- Open Access
- 29 July 2017
- Published by Springer Nature in Journal of Mathematical Biology
- Vol. 76 (5) , 1059-1099
Defining fitness in an uncertain world
The recently elucidated definition of fitness employed by Fisher in his fundamental theorem of natural selection is combined with reproductive values as appropriately defined in the context of both random environments and continuing fluctuations in the distribution over classes in a class-structured population. We obtain astonishingly simple results, generalisations of the Price Equation and the fundamental theorem, that show natural selection acting only through the arithmetic expectation of fitness over all uncertainties, in contrast to previous studies with fluctuating demography, in which natural selection looks rather complicated. Furthermore, our setting permits each class to have its characteristic ploidy, thus covering haploidy, diploidy and haplodiploidy at the same time; and allows arbitrary classes, including continuous variables such as condition. The simplicity is achieved by focussing just on the effects of natural selection on genotype frequencies: while other causes are present in the model, and the effect of natural selection is assessed in their presence, these causes will have their own further effects on genoytpe frequencies that are not assessed here. Also, Fisher’s uses of reproductive value are shown to have two ambivalences, and a new axiomatic foundation for reproductive value is endorsed. The results continue the formal darwinism project, and extend support for the individual-as-maximising-agent analogy to finite populations with random environments and fluctuating class-distributions. The model may also lead to improved ways to measure fitness in real populations.
- 29 July 2017
- Published by Springer Nature in Journal of Mathematical Biology
- Vol. 76 (5) , 1059-1099
Open AccessDefining fitness in an uncertain world
The recently elucidated definition of fitness employed by Fisher in his fundamental theorem of natural selection is combined with reproductive values as appropriately defined in the context of both random environments and continuing fluctuations in the distribution over classes in a class-structured population. We obtain astonishingly simple results, generalisations of the Price Equation and the fundamental theorem, that show natural selection acting only through the arithmetic expectation of fitness over all uncertainties, in contrast to previous studies with fluctuating demography, in which natural selection looks rather complicated. Furthermore, our setting permits each class to have its characteristic ploidy, thus covering haploidy, diploidy and haplodiploidy at the same time; and allows arbitrary classes, including continuous variables such as condition. The simplicity is achieved by focussing just on the effects of natural selection on genotype frequencies: while other causes are present in the model, and the effect of natural selection is assessed in their presence, these causes will have their own further effects on genoytpe frequencies that are not assessed here. Also, Fisher’s uses of reproductive value are shown to have two ambivalences, and a new axiomatic foundation for reproductive value is endorsed. The results continue the formal darwinism project, and extend support for the individual-as-maximising-agent analogy to finite populations with random environments and fluctuating class-distributions. The model may also lead to improved ways to measure fitness in real populations.