Maria Polese

As the effects of climate change, population growth, and urbanization intensify, there has been a surge in the frequency and severity of extreme natural hazards, often leading to catastrophic disasters. This escalating threat underscores the pressing need to devise and rigorously test innovative methodologies for risk assessment that consider the complex interactions between multiple hazards.This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for multi-hazard risk analysis, with a focus on capturing the intricate dynamics between different systems, such as the built environment and human populations, within vulnerable urban settings. To this aim, the study examines specific zones within the urban areas of Palermo and Naples, Italy – two highly complex urban environments with significant populations and exposure to various natural hazards – along with the entire area of the small town of Giampilieri (Sicily). The town experienced significant impacts during the 2009 Messina floods and flow-like landslides, which resulted in at least 31 fatalities and left over 400 people homeless due to the collapse of numerous houses.The research integrates a diverse array of datasets from both institutional and non-institutional sources (e.g., open data), including historical hazard records, socioeconomic and demographic information, and various environmental variables. These datasets are utilized to simulate interactions among hazards, both in terms of physical phenomena (occurrence interactions) and their resulting impacts (consequence interactions). Probabilistic models and machine learning algorithms (e.g., Bayesian Networks, Random Forest) are explored to capture various hazard dependencies and cascading effects, offering deeper insights into potential impacts on communities and various infrastructure systems (e.g., building and transport networks).The ultimate goal is to develop scalable decision-support tools for disaster risk management and planning, enhancing resilience and supporting sustainable urban development.