Steven H. Strogatz

Tracing potentially infected contacts of confirmed cases is important when fighting outbreaks of many infectious diseases. The COVID-19 pandemic has motivated researchers to examine how different contact tracing strategies compare in terms of effectiveness (ability to mitigate infections) and cost efficiency (number of prevented infections per isolation). Two important strategies are so-called forward contact tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads) and backward contact tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads). Recently, Kojaku and colleagues reported that backward contact tracing was “profoundly more effective” than forward contact tracing, that contact tracing effectiveness “hinges on reaching the ‘source’ of infection,” and that contact tracing outperformed case isolation in terms of cost efficiency. Here we show that these conclusions are not true in general. They were based in part on simulations that vastly overestimated the effectiveness and efficiency of contact tracing. Our results show that the efficiency of contact tracing strategies is highly contextual; faced with a disease outbreak, the disease dynamics determine whether tracing infection sources or new cases is more impactful. Our results also demonstrate the importance of simulating disease spread and mitigation measures in parallel rather than sequentially.

We revisit a textbook example of a singularly perturbed nonlinear boundary-value problem. Unexpectedly, it shows a wealth of phenomena that seem to have been overlooked previously, including a pitchfork bifurcation in the number of solutions as one varies the small parameter, and transcendentally small terms in the initial conditions that can be calculated by elementary means. Based on our own classroom experience, we believe this problem could provide an enjoyable workout for students in courses on perturbation methods, applied dynamical systems, or numerical analysis.

We study the electric field around a continuous one-dimensional loop of static charge, under the assumption that the charge is distributed uniformly along the loop. For rectangular or stadium-shaped loops in the plane, we find that the electric field can undergo a symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation as the loop is elongated; the field can have either one or three zeros, depending on the loop's aspect ratio. For knotted charge distributions in three-dimensional space, we compute the electric field numerically and compare our results to previously published theoretical bounds on the number of equilibrium points around charged knots. Our computations reveal that the previous bounds are far from sharp. The numerics also suggest conjectures for the actual minimum number of equilibrium points for all charged knots with five or fewer crossings. In addition, we provide the first images of the equipotential surfaces around charged knots and visualize their topological transitions as the level of the potential is varied.

We study the electric field around a continuous one-dimensional loop of static charge, under the assumption that the charge is distributed uniformly along the loop. For rectangular or stadium-shaped loops in the plane, we find that the electric field can undergo a symmetry-breaking pitchfork bifurcation as the loop is elongated; the field can have either one or three zeros, depending on the loop's aspect ratio. For knotted charge distributions in three-dimensional space, we compute the electric field numerically and compare our results to previously published theoretical bounds on the number of equilibrium points around charged knots. Our computations reveal that the previous bounds are far from sharp. The numerics also suggest conjectures for the actual minimum number of equilibrium points for all charged knots with five or fewer crossings. In addition, we provide the first images of the equipotential surfaces around charged knots, and visualize their topological transitions as the level of the potential is varied.

We characterize absorption-time distributions for birth-death Markov chains with an absorbing boundary. For “extinction-prone” chains (which drift on average toward the absorbing state) the asymptotic distribution is Gaussian, Gumbel, or belongs to a family of skewed distributions. The latter two cases arise when the dynamics slow down dramatically near the boundary. Several models of evolution, epidemics, and chemical reactions fall into these classes; in each case we establish new results for the absorption-time distribution. Applications to African sleeping sickness are discussed.

Using a combination of theory, experiment, and simulation, we revisit the dynamics of two coupled metronomes on a moving platform. Our experiments show that the platform’s motion is damped by a dry friction force of Coulomb type, not the viscous linear friction force that has often been assumed in the past. Prompted by this result, we develop a new mathematical model that builds on previously introduced models but departs from them in its treatment of friction on the platform. We analyze the model by a two-timescale analysis and derive the slow-flow equations that determine its long-term dynamics. The derivation of the slow flow is challenging due to the stick-slip motion of the platform in some parameter regimes. Simulations of the slow flow reveal various kinds of long-term behavior including in-phase and antiphase synchronization of identical metronomes, phase locking and phase drift of non-identical metronomes, and metronome suppression and death. In these latter two states, one or both of the metronomes come to swing at such low amplitude that they no longer engage their escapement mechanisms. We find good agreement between our theory, simulations, and experiments, but stress that our exploration is far from exhaustive. Indeed, much still remains to be learned about the dynamics of coupled metronomes, despite their simplicity and familiarity.