C. Mark Eakin

Ocean warming is increasing the frequency, extent, and severity of tropical-coral bleaching and mortality. During 2014–2017, marine heatwaves caused the Third Global Coral Bleaching Event. We analyze data from 15,066 reef surveys globally during 2014–2017. Across all surveyed reefs, 80% and 35% experienced moderate or greater (affecting >10% of corals) bleaching and mortality, respectively. We assess the global extent of coral bleaching and mortality by applying bleaching response curves calibrated from surveyed reefs to predict bleaching globally, based on comprehensive remote-sensing of heat stress. These models predict that 51% and 15% of the world’s coral reefs suffered moderate or greater bleaching and mortality, respectively, during one or multiple years, surpassing damage from any prior global coral bleaching event. Our findings demonstrate that the impacts of ocean warming on coral reefs are accelerating, with the near certainty that ongoing warming will cause large-scale, possibly irreversible, degradation of these essential ecosystems. With heat stress levels during this event surpassing those observed previously, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration developed more extreme Bleaching Alert levels that are now being used during the ongoing Fourth Global Coral Bleaching Event.

Ocean warming is increasing the incidence, scale, and severity of global-scale coral bleaching and mortality, culminating in the third global coral bleaching event that occurred during record marine heatwaves of 2014-2017. While local effects of these events have been widely reported, the global implications remain unknown. Analysis of 15,066 reef surveys during 2014-2017 revealed that 80% of surveyed reefs experienced significant coral bleaching and 35% experienced significant coral mortality. The global extent of significant coral bleaching and mortality was assessed by extrapolating results from reef surveys using comprehensive remote-sensing data of regional heat stress. This model predicted that 51% of the world’s coral reefs suffered significant bleaching and 15% significant mortality, surpassing damage from any prior global bleaching event. These observations demonstrate that global warming’s widespread damage to coral reefs is accelerating and underscores the threat anthropogenic climate change poses for the irreversible transformation of these essential ecosystems.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) program has been providing resource managers, scientific researchers, and other coral reef ecosystem stakeholders with coral bleaching heat stress products for more than 20 years. The development of the CoralTemp sea surface temperature (SST) dataset has allowed CRW to produce the Coral Bleaching Heat Stress product suite with climatologies and daily SST measurements from within the same SST dataset, significantly improving data quality. Previously, the Monthly Mean (MM) SST and Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) SST climatologies were derived using a different dataset from the near real-time SST. Here we provide an up-to-date description of how each product within the Coral Reef Watch Coral Bleaching Heat Stress product suite version 3.1 is derived, including descriptions of the MM, MMM, SST Anomaly, Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Degree Heating Week (DHW) products.

Coastal, benthic communities, such as coral reefs, are at particular risk due to poor water quality caused by hurricanes. In addition to the physical impacts from wave action and storm surge, hurricanes bring significant rainfall resulting in increased runoff from land. Hurricanes Irma and Maria caused record or near-record floods at many locations across Puerto Rico and resulted in major impacts on coastal and benthic ecosystems from heavy rainfall and river discharge. In this study, we use imagery from the moderate resolution Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite to quantify the impacts of hurricanes Irma and Maria, which struck Puerto Rico during September 2017, on the water quality of the coastal waters of Puerto Rico using the chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K_d490) products. The objectives include: (1) quantify the water quality and light attenuation after the hurricanes; (2) compare this event to the climatology of these parameters, and 3) evaluate long-term exposure and exceedances of various coastal areas to low levels of turbidity. The Chl-a inner shelf values increased in 2017 during the months of June (8% above baseline), July (17%), August (5%), September (8%), October (19%), and November (28%) when compared to 2012–2016 baseline data. The values for Chl-a concentration reached and exceeded 0.45 µg/L by August 2017 and persisted above that value until December 2017. The K_d490 inner shelf values for 2017 increased (in percent) for the months of June (4% above baseline), July (9%), August (10%), September (5%), October (12%), and November (7%) when compared to 2012–2016 baseline data. The values of K_d490 in August, September, and December 2017 were the highest seen during 2012–2017. Even with the limitations of spatial resolution and loss of data to cloud cover, the 6-year imagery time-series analysis can provide a useful evaluation of the effects of these two hurricanes on the coastal water quality in Puerto Rico, and quantify the exposure of benthic habitats to higher nutrient and turbidity levels.

Some researchers have suggested that corals living in deeper reefs may escape heat stress experienced by shallow corals. We evaluated the potential of deep coral reef refugia from bleaching stress by leveraging a long record of satellite-derived sea surface temperature data with a temporal, spatial, and depth precision of in situ temperature records. We calculated an in situ stress metric using a depth bias-adjusted threshold for 457 coral reef sites among 49 islands in the western and central Pacific Ocean over the period 2001–2017. Analysis of 1,453 heating events found no meaningful depth refuge from heat stress down to 38 m, and no significant association between depth and subsurface heat stress. Further, the surface metric underestimated subsurface stress by an average of 39.3%, across all depths. Combining satellite and in situ temperature data can provide bleaching-relevant heat stress results to avoid misrepresentation of heat stress exposure at shallow reefs.

Increasing heat stress due to global climate change is causing coral reef decline, and the Caribbean has been one of the most vulnerable regions. Here, we assessed three decades (1985–2017) of heat stress exposure in the wider Caribbean at ecoregional and local scales using remote sensing. We found a high spatial and temporal variability of heat stress, emphasizing an observed increase in heat exposure over time in most ecoregions, especially from 2003 identified as a temporal change point in heat stress. A spatiotemporal analysis classified the Caribbean into eight heat-stress regions offering a new regionalization scheme based on historical heat exposure patterns. The temporal analysis confirmed the years 1998, 2005, 2010–2011, 2015 and 2017 as severe and widespread Caribbean heat-stress events and recognized a change point in 2002–2004, after which heat exposure has been frequent in most subsequent years. Major heat-stress events may be associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but we highlight the relevance of the long-term increase in heat exposure in most ecoregions and in all ENSO phases. This work produced a new baseline and regionalization of heat stress in the basin that will enhance conservation and planning efforts underway.

Commentary: Reconstructing Four Centuries of Temperature-Induced Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef