Amrita Rao

Background: In South Africa, there is no centralized HIV surveillance system where key populations (KPs) data, including gay men and other men who have sex with men, female sex workers, transgender persons, people who use drugs, and incarcerated persons, are stored in South Africa despite being on higher risk of HIV acquisition and transmission than the general population. Data on KPs are being collected on a smaller scale by numerous stakeholders and managed in silos. There exists an opportunity to harness a variety of data, such as empirical, contextual, observational, and programmatic data, for evaluating the potential impact of HIV responses among KPs in South Africa. Objective: This study aimed to leverage and harness big heterogeneous data on HIV among KPs and harmonize and analyze it to inform a targeted HIV response for greater impact in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: The Boloka data repository initiative has 5 stages. There will be engagement of a wide range of stakeholders to facilitate the acquisition of data (stage 1). Through these engagements, different data types will be collated (stage 2). The data will be filtered and screened to enable high-quality analyses (stage 3). The collated data will be stored in the Boloka data repository (stage 4). The Boloka data repository will be made accessible to stakeholders and authorized users (stage 5). Results: The protocol was funded by the South African Medical Research Council following external peer reviews (December 2022). The study received initial ethics approval (May 2022), renewal (June 2023), and amendment (July 2024) from the University of Johannesburg (UJ) Research Ethics Committee. The research team has been recruited, onboarded, and received non–web-based internet ethics training (January 2023). A list of current and potential data partners has been compiled (January 2023 to date). Data sharing or user agreements have been signed with several data partners (August 2023 to date). Survey and routine data have been and are being secured (January 5, 2023). In (September 2024) we received Ghana Men Study data. The data transfer agreement between the Pan African Centre for Epidemics Research and the Perinatal HIV Research Unit was finalized (October 2024), and we are anticipating receiving data by (December 2024). In total, 7 abstracts are underway, with 1 abstract completed the analysis and expected to submit the full article to the peer-reviewed journal in early January 2024. As of March 2025, we expect to submit the remaining 6 full articles. Conclusions: A truly “complete” data infrastructure that systematically and rigorously integrates diverse data for KPs will not only improve our understanding of local epidemics but will also improve HIV interventions and policies. Furthermore, it will inform future research directions and become an incredible institutional mechanism for epidemiological and public health training in South Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/63583

Background: The 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Uptake of mpox testing may be related to symptomology, sociodemographic characteristics, and behavioral characteristics. Objective: This study aimed to describe suspected mpox symptoms and testing uptake among a sample of GBMSM recruited via the internet in the United States in August 2022. Methods: We conducted a rapid internet-based mpox survey from August 5 to 15, 2022, among cisgender men 15 years and older who had previously participated in the 2021 American Men’s Internet Survey. We estimated the prevalence of suspected mpox symptoms (fever or rash or sores with unknown cause in the last 3 mo) and uptake of mpox testing. We calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) and 95% CIs for associations between participant characteristics and suspected mpox symptoms and summarized characteristics of GBMSM reporting mpox testing. Among symptomatic GBMSM who did not receive mpox testing, we described testing self-efficacy, barriers, and facilitators. Results: Of 824 GBMSM, 126 (15.3%) reported at least 1 mpox symptom in the last 3 months; 58/126 (46%) with rash or sores, 57 (45.2%) with fever, and 11 (8.7%) with both. Increased prevalence of suspected mpox symptoms was associated with condomless anal sex (CAS; aPR 1.53, 95% CI 1.06‐2.20). Mpox testing was reported by 9/824 GBMSM (1%), including 5 with symptoms. Most GBMSM reporting mpox testing were non-Hispanic White men (7/9 vs 1 Black and 1 Hispanic or Latino man), and all 9 lived in urban areas. Most reported having an sexually transmitted infections test (8/9), 2 or more partners (8/9), CAS (7/9), and group sex (6/9) in the last 3 months. Of those tested, 3 reported living with HIV and all were on treatment, whereas the remaining 6 men without HIV reported current pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use. Of symptomatic GBMSM who did not report mpox testing, 47/105 (44.8%) had low mpox testing self-efficacy. Among those with low self-efficacy, the most common barriers to testing were not knowing where to get tested (40/47, 85.1%) and difficulty getting appointments (23/47, 48.9%). Among those with high testing self-efficacy (58/105, 55.2%), the most common facilitators to testing were knowing where to test (52/58, 89.7%), convenient site hours (40/58, 69%), and low-cost testing (38/58, 65.5%). Conclusions: While all GBMSM who reported testing for mpox were linked to HIV treatment or PrEP, those with symptoms but no mpox testing reported fewer such links. This suggests targeted outreach is needed to reduce structural barriers to mpox services among GBMSM in rural areas, Black and GBMSM, and GBMSM living with HIV. Sustaining and scaling community-tailored messaging to promote testing and vaccination represent critical interventions for mpox control among GBMSM in the United States.

Background: Key populations (KP), including men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and transgender women (TGW), experience a disproportionate burden of HIV, even in generalized epidemics like South Africa. Given this disproportionate burden and unique barriers to accessing health services, sustained provision of care is particularly relevant. It is unclear how the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions may have impacted this delivery. In this study, we aimed to describe patterns of engagement in HIV prevention and treatment services among KP in South Africa and assess the impact of different COVID-19 restriction levels on service delivery. Methods: We leveraged programmatic data collected by the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported KP partners in South Africa. We divided data into three discrete time periods based on national COVID-19 restriction periods: (i) Pre-restriction period, (ii) High-level restriction period, and (iii) After-high level restriction period. Primary outcomes included monthly total HIV tests, new HIV cases identified, new initiations of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and new enrollments in antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted interrupted time series segmented regression analyses to estimate the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on HIV prevention and treatment service utilization. Results: Between January 2018 and June 2022, there were a total of 231,086 HIV tests, 27,051 HIV positive cases, 27,656 pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) initiations, and 15,949 antiretroviral therapy initiations among MSM, FSW and TGW in PEPFAR-supported KP programs in South Africa. We recorded 90,457 total HIV tests during the ‘pre-restriction’ period, with 13,593 confirmed new HIV diagnoses; 26,134 total HIV tests with 2,771 new diagnoses during the ‘high-level restriction’ period; and 114,495 HIV tests with 10,687 new diagnoses during the after high-level restriction period. Our Poisson regression model estimates indicate an immediate and significant decrease in service engagement at the onset of COVID-19 restrictions, including declines in HIV testing, treatment, and PrEP use, which persisted. As programs adjusted to the new restrictions, there was a gradual rebound in service engagement, particularly among MSM and FSW. Towards the end of the high-level restriction period, with some aspects of daily life returning to normal but others still restricted, there was more variability. Some indicators continued to improve, while others stagnated or decreased. Conclusion: Service provision rebounded from the initial shock created by pandemic-related restrictions, and HIV services were largely maintained for KP in South Africa. These results suggest that HIV service delivery among programs designed for KP was able to be flexible and resilient to the evolving restrictions. The results of this study can inform plans for future pandemics and large-scale disruptions to the delivery of HIV services.

Background: Estimating the size of key populations, including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM), can inform planning and resource allocation for HIV programs at local and national levels. In geographic areas where direct population size estimates (PSEs) for key populations have not been collected, small area estimation (SAE) can help fill in gaps using supplemental data sources known as auxiliary data. However, routinely collected program data have not historically been used as auxiliary data to generate subnational estimates for key populations, including in Namibia. Objective: To systematically generate regional size estimates for FSW and MSM in Namibia, we used a consensus-informed estimation approach with local stakeholders that included the integration of routinely collected HIV program data provided by key populations’ HIV service providers. Methods: We used quarterly program data reported by key population implementing partners, including counts of the number of individuals accessing HIV services over time, to weight existing PSEs collected through bio-behavioral surveys using a Bayesian triangulation approach. SAEs were generated through simple imputation, stratified imputation, and multivariable Poisson regression models. We selected final estimates using an iterative qualitative ranking process with local key population implementing partners. Results: Extrapolated national estimates for FSW ranged from 4777 to 13,148 across Namibia, comprising 1.5% to 3.6% of female individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. For MSM, estimates ranged from 4611 to 10,171, comprising 0.7% to 1.5% of male individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. After the inclusion of program data as priors, the estimated proportion of FSW derived from simple imputation increased from 1.9% to 2.8%, and the proportion of MSM decreased from 1.5% to 0.75%. When stratified imputation was implemented using HIV prevalence to inform strata, the inclusion of program data increased the proportion of FSW from 2.6% to 4.0% in regions with high prevalence and decreased the proportion from 1.4% to 1.2% in regions with low prevalence. When population density was used to inform strata, the inclusion of program data also increased the proportion of FSW in high-density regions (from 1.1% to 3.4%) and decreased the proportion of MSM in all regions. Conclusions: Using SAE approaches, we combined epidemiologic and program data to generate subnational size estimates for key populations in Namibia. Overall, estimates were highly sensitive to the inclusion of program data. Program data represent a supplemental source of information that can be used to align PSEs with real-world HIV programs, particularly in regions where population-based data collection methods are challenging to implement. Future work is needed to determine how best to include and validate program data in target settings and in key population size estimation studies, ultimately bridging research with practice to support a more comprehensive HIV response.

BACKGROUND Estimating the size of key populations, including female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM), can inform planning and resource allocation for HIV programs at local and national levels. In geographic areas where direct population size estimates (PSEs) for key populations have not been collected, small area estimation (SAE) can help fill in gaps using supplemental data sources known as auxiliary data. However, routinely collected program data have not historically been used as auxiliary data to generate subnational estimates for key populations, including in Namibia. OBJECTIVE To systematically generate regional size estimates for FSW and MSM in Namibia, we used a consensus-informed estimation approach with local stakeholders that included the integration of routinely collected HIV program data provided by key populations’ HIV service providers. METHODS We used quarterly program data reported by key population implementing partners, including counts of the number of individuals accessing HIV services over time, to weight existing PSEs collected through bio-behavioral surveys using a Bayesian triangulation approach. SAEs were generated through simple imputation, stratified imputation, and multivariable Poisson regression models. We selected final estimates using an iterative qualitative ranking process with local key population implementing partners. RESULTS Extrapolated national estimates for FSW ranged from 4777 to 13,148 across Namibia, comprising 1.5% to 3.6% of female individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. For MSM, estimates ranged from 4611 to 10,171, comprising 0.7% to 1.5% of male individuals aged between 15 and 49 years. After the inclusion of program data as priors, the estimated proportion of FSW derived from simple imputation increased from 1.9% to 2.8%, and the proportion of MSM decreased from 1.5% to 0.75%. When stratified imputation was implemented using HIV prevalence to inform strata, the inclusion of program data increased the proportion of FSW from 2.6% to 4.0% in regions with high prevalence and decreased the proportion from 1.4% to 1.2% in regions with low prevalence. When population density was used to inform strata, the inclusion of program data also increased the proportion of FSW in high-density regions (from 1.1% to 3.4%) and decreased the proportion of MSM in all regions. CONCLUSIONS Using SAE approaches, we combined epidemiologic and program data to generate subnational size estimates for key populations in Namibia. Overall, estimates were highly sensitive to the inclusion of program data. Program data represent a supplemental source of information that can be used to align PSEs with real-world HIV programs, particularly in regions where population-based data collection methods are challenging to implement. Future work is needed to determine how best to include and validate program data in target settings and in key population size estimation studies, ultimately bridging research with practice to support a more comprehensive HIV response.

Objective: Female sex workers (FSW) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) face a disproportionately high risk of HIV in South Africa. Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can avert new infections, but its effectiveness is linked to consistent use. Early discontinuation of PrEP in this population is high, but less is known about longitudinal patterns of PrEP use, including patterns of re-initiation and cycling. Design: Longitudinal descriptive analysis of routine program data. Methods: Between 2016 and 2021, 40 681 FSW and AGYW initiated PrEP at TB HIV Care, the largest PrEP provider to this population in South Africa and were included. Using survival analyses and group-based trajectory modeling, we described patterns of initiation, discontinuation, re-initiation, and cycling. Results: Total initiations increased over the life of the program for both FSW and AGYW. About 40% of FSW [0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.40–0.42]] and AGYW (0.38, 95% CI [0.37–0.38]) remained on PrEP at one month. FSW were more likely to restart PrEP, however <10% restarted PrEP within a year of initiation. Three latent trajectory groups of PrEP use were identified for FSW (low use, early cycling, and ongoing cycling) and two for AGYW (low use and ongoing cycling). Persistence was negatively associated with initiation among AGYW, but there was no clear relationship among FSW. Those initiating later in the program and older women had a reduced risk of discontinuation. Conclusions: Persistence on PrEP was low, but cycling on and off PrEP was common, with early missed visits and inconsistent, but ongoing use. A push to increase PrEP initiations needs to factor in readiness and persistence support, to achieve public health impact.