Carlo Berzuini

Causal inference methods for observational data are increasingly recognized as a valuable complement to randomized clinical trials (RCTs). They can, under strong assumptions, emulate RCTs or help refine their focus. Our approach to causal inference uses causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We are motivated by a concern that many observational studies in medicine begin without a clear definition of their objectives, without awareness of the scientific potential, and without tools to identify the necessary in itinere adjustments. We present and illustrate methods that provide "midway insights" during study's course, identify meaningful causal questions within the study's reach and point to the necessary data base enhancements for these questions to be meaningfully tackled. The method hinges on concepts of identification and positivity. Concepts are illustrated through an analysis of data generated by patients with aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (aSAH) halfway through a study, focusing in particular on the consequences of external ventricular drain (EVD) in strata of the aSAH population. In addition, we propose a method for multicenter studies, to monitor the impact of changes in practice at an individual center's level, by leveraging principles of instrumental variable (IV) inference.

Our approach to Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis is designed to increase reproducibility of causal effect "discoveries" by: (i) using a Bayesian approach to inference; (ii) replacing the point null hypothesis with a region of practical equivalence consisting of values of negligible magnitude for the effect of interest, while exploiting the ability of Bayesian analysis to quantify the evidence of the effect falling inside/outside the region; (iii) rejecting the usual binary decision logic in favour of a ternary logic where the hypothesis test may result in either an acceptance or a rejection of the null, while also accommodating an "uncertain" outcome. We present an approach to calibration of the proposed method via loss function, which we use to compare our approach with a frequentist one. We illustrate the method with the aid of a study of the causal effect of obesity on risk of juvenile myocardial infarction.

At the break of a pandemic, the protective efficacy of therapeutic interventions needs rapid evaluation. An experimental approach to the problem will not always be appropriate. An alternative route are observational studies, whether based on regional health service data or hospital records. In this paper, we discuss the use of methods of causal inference for the analysis of such data, with special reference to causal questions that may arise in a pandemic. We apply the methods by using the aid of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) representation of the problem, to encode our causal assumptions and to logically connect the scientific questions. We illustrate the usefulness of DAGs in the context of a controversy over the effects of renin aldosterone system inhibitors (RASIs) in hypertensive individuals at risk of (or affected by) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease. We consider questions concerning the existence and the directions of those effects, their underlying mechanisms, and the possible dependence of the effects on context variables. This paper describes the cognitive steps that led to a DAG representation of the problem, based on background knowledge and evidence from past studies, and the use of the DAG to analyze our hospital data and assess the interpretive limits of the results. Our study contributed to subverting early opinions about RASIs, by suggesting that these drugs may indeed protect the older hypertensive Covid-19 patients from the consequences of the disease. Mechanistic interaction methods revealed that the benefit may be greater (in a sense to be made clear) in the older stratum of the population.

With the increasing availability and size of multi-omics datasets, investigating the casual relationships between molecular phenotypes has become an important aspect of exploring underlying biology and genetics. This paper aims to introduce and review the available methods for building large-scale causal molecular networks that have been developed in the past decade. Existing methods have their own strengths and limitations so there is no one best approach, and it is instead down to the discretion of the researcher. This review also aims to discuss some of the current limitations to biological interpretation of these networks, and important factors to consider for future studies on molecular networks.

Here we investigate protein levels in 69 multiple sclerosis (MS) cases and 143 healthy controls (HC) from twenty Sardinian families to search for promising biomarkers in plasma. Using antibody suspension bead array technology, the plasma levels of 56 MS-related proteins were obtained. Differences between MS cases and HC were estimated using Linear Mixed Models or Linear Quantile Mixed Models. The proportion of proteins level variability, explained by a set of 119 MS-risk SNPs as to the literature, was also quantified. Higher plasma C9 and CYP24A1 levels were found in MS cases compared to HC (p < 0.05 after Holm multiple testing correction), with protein level differences estimated as, respectively, 0.53 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.81) and 0.42 (95% CI: 0.19, 0.65) times plasma level standard deviation measured in HC. Furthermore, C9 resulted in both statistically significantly higher relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and secondary-progressive MS (SPMS) compared to HC, with SPMS showing the highest differences. Instead, CYP24A1 was statistically significantly higher only in RRMS as compared to HC. Respectively, 26% (95% CI: 10%, 44%) and 16% (95% CI: 9%, 39%) of CYP24A1 and C9 plasma level variability was explained by known MS-risk SNPs. Our results highlight C9 and CYP24A1 as potential biomarkers in plasma for MS and allow us to gain insight into molecular disease mechanisms.

The kidney is an organ of key relevance to blood pressure (BP) regulation, hypertension and antihypertensive treatment. However, genetically mediated renal mechanisms underlying susceptibility to hypertension remain poorly understood. We integrated genotype, gene expression, alternative splicing and DNA methylation profiles of up to 430 human kidneys to characterize the effects of BP index variants from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on renal transcriptome and epigenome. We uncovered kidney targets for 479 (58.3%) BP-GWAS variants and paired 49 BP-GWAS kidney genes with 210 licensed drugs. Our colocalization and Mendelian randomization analyses identified 179 unique kidney genes with evidence of putatively causal effects on BP. Through Mendelian randomization, we also uncovered effects of BP on renal outcomes commonly affecting patients with hypertension. Collectively, our studies identified genetic variants, kidney genes, molecular mechanisms and biological pathways of key relevance to the genetic regulation of BP and inherited susceptibility to hypertension.

From a cohort of 1352 consecutive patients admitted with coronavirus disease (Covid-19) to Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital in Bergamo, Italy, between February and April 2020, we selected and studied 688 patients with arterial hypertension (254 deaths) to assess whether use of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors (RASIs) prior to hospital admission affects mortality from Covid-19. Prior use of RASIs was associated with a lower mortality in the over-68 group of patients, whereas no evidence of a similar effect (whether protective or adverse) was found in the younger group. There was positive relative excess due to a statistically significant ( p =0.001) interaction between prior RASI exposure and an age greater than 68 years, corresponding to a positive relative excess risk. Next we used the subgroup of 411 hypertensive patients older than 68 yrs to separately assess the effects prior use of two RASI drug subclasses, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiogiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), by comparing these two exposures with no exposure to RASIs. We found both prior use of ACEIs and prior use of ARBs to be associated with a lower Covid-19 mortality, after adjusting for 32 medical history variables via propensity score matching. ( OR _ACEI = 0.57, 95%CI 0.36 to 0.91, p =0.018) ( OR _ARB = 0.49, 95%CI 0.29 to 0.82, p =0.006).

Objectives Being able to predict which patients with COVID-19 are going to deteriorate is important to help identify patients for clinical and research practice. Clinical prediction models play a critical role in this process, but current models are of limited value because they are typically restricted to baseline predictors and do not always use contemporary statistical methods. We sought to explore the benefits of incorporating dynamic changes in routinely measured biomarkers, non-linear effects and applying ‘state-of-the-art’ statistical methods in the development of a prognostic model to predict death in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Design The data were analysed from admissions with COVID-19 to three hospital sites. Exploratory data analysis included a graphical approach to partial correlations. Dynamic biomarkers were considered up to 5 days following admission rather than depending solely on baseline or single time-point data. Marked departures from linear effects of covariates were identified by employing smoothing splines within a generalised additive modelling framework. Setting 3 secondary and tertiary level centres in Greater Manchester, the UK. Participants 392 hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19. Results 392 patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis were identified. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased from 0.73 using admission data alone to 0.75 when also considering results of baseline blood samples and to 0.83 when considering dynamic values of routinely collected markers. There was clear non-linearity in the association of age with patient outcome. Conclusions This study shows that clinical prediction models to predict death in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 can be improved by taking into account both non-linear effects in covariates such as age and dynamic changes in values of biomarkers.