Krishna Prasad Timsina
Current Organizations / Institutes
The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article
Previous Organizations / Institutes
The organizations / institutes from the scholar's other articles in the past ten years
Research Subjects
Krishna Prasad Timsina has a total of 72 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:
- Samaya Gairhe
Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Singhdurbar Plaza, Kathmandu, Nepal
6 shared publications Ganesh P. Shivakoti
4 shared publicationsYuga N. Ghimire
Socioeconomics and Agricultural Research Policy Division, Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal
4 shared publicationsSanjiv Subedi
Socioeconomics and Agricultural Research Policy Division, Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal
3 shared publications- Damien Jourdain
Asian Institute of Technology
2 shared publications Deepa Devkota
Socioeconomics and Agricultural Research Policy Division (SARPOD), Khumaltar, Lalitpur
2 shared publications
Latest Publications
- Open Access
- 12 December 2025
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Nepalese Horticulture
- Vol. 19  (1) , 54-67
Structural Dynamics, Marketing Pathways and Economic Performance of Nepalese Tea: Comparative Analysis of CTC and Orthodox Segments
Tea is one of the horticultural cash crops which considerably contributes to export revenues and rural livelihoods in Nepal. It can be broadly divided into two categories: Crush, Tear & Curl (CTC) and Orthodox, each of which has its own production system and market structures. This study presents an in-depth analysis of the structural dynamics, marketing pathways, and economic performance of both segments. Using the primary data collected from 106 tea industries operating in Jhapa and Ilam, the study explores ownership patterns, green leaf sourcing strategies, processing capacity, market orientation, and economic performance. The results reveal that CTC industries are largely estate-based and chiefly cater the domestic demand, while Orthodox industries depend more on smallholder farmers and are export-oriented. Despite such structural and marketing divergences, both types of industries experience underutilized processing capacity. To examine economic performance and comparative advantage, the analysis estimated the cost of production (CoP) and Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) ratios for both tea types. The evidence reveals that Orthodox tea is costlier to produce, but offers a greater comparative advantage in foreign markets, as reflected by a lower DRC ratio. This situation suggests that while cost competitiveness remains a challenge, Orthodox tea has great potential in the global market from a resource efficiency point of view. Conversely, CTC tea is comparatively cheap and shows weak export competitiveness. To sum up, the research highlights the dual nature of Nepal’s tea economy, characterized by diverging pathways and market positioning, with implications for targeted policy support and strategic alignment based on comparative advantage.
- 12 December 2025
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Nepalese Horticulture
- Vol. 19  (1) , 54-67
Open AccessStructural Dynamics, Marketing Pathways and Economic Performance of Nepalese Tea: Comparative Analysis of CTC and Orthodox Segments
Tea is one of the horticultural cash crops which considerably contributes to export revenues and rural livelihoods in Nepal. It can be broadly divided into two categories: Crush, Tear & Curl (CTC) and Orthodox, each of which has its own production system and market structures. This study presents an in-depth analysis of the structural dynamics, marketing pathways, and economic performance of both segments. Using the primary data collected from 106 tea industries operating in Jhapa and Ilam, the study explores ownership patterns, green leaf sourcing strategies, processing capacity, market orientation, and economic performance. The results reveal that CTC industries are largely estate-based and chiefly cater the domestic demand, while Orthodox industries depend more on smallholder farmers and are export-oriented. Despite such structural and marketing divergences, both types of industries experience underutilized processing capacity. To examine economic performance and comparative advantage, the analysis estimated the cost of production (CoP) and Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) ratios for both tea types. The evidence reveals that Orthodox tea is costlier to produce, but offers a greater comparative advantage in foreign markets, as reflected by a lower DRC ratio. This situation suggests that while cost competitiveness remains a challenge, Orthodox tea has great potential in the global market from a resource efficiency point of view. Conversely, CTC tea is comparatively cheap and shows weak export competitiveness. To sum up, the research highlights the dual nature of Nepal’s tea economy, characterized by diverging pathways and market positioning, with implications for targeted policy support and strategic alignment based on comparative advantage.
- 1 October 2025
- Published by Springer Nature
- p. 271-290
Enhancing Nepal’s Vegetable Subsector: Strategies for Import Substitution and Export Promotion
- 1 October 2025
- Published by Springer Nature
- p. 271-290
Enhancing Nepal’s Vegetable Subsector: Strategies for Import Substitution and Export Promotion
- 25 September 2024
- Published by Springer Nature in GeoJournal
- Vol. 89  (5) , 1-20
Agricultural land conversion: trends and drivers in Dhading, Nepal
- 25 September 2024
- Published by Springer Nature in GeoJournal
- Vol. 89  (5) , 1-20
Agricultural land conversion: trends and drivers in Dhading, Nepal
- Open Access
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 95-104
Economics of production of Sunkagati-1 variety of acid lime in Nepal
There is a huge opportunity for acid lime farming in Nepal. The demand is much higher than domestic production resulting voluminous import from abroad. This research aimed to assess the economics of production of Sunkagati-1 variety of acid lime in Nepal. Morang, Sunsari, Chitwan and Nawalparasi districts were selected for this study after consultation with the concerned agricultural experts and nursery entrepreneurs producing Sunkagati-1 saplings. The primary information was collected through the field survey whereas secondary information was obtained reviewing the relevant literatures. All total 70 farmers were selected as the samples through simple random sampling for the field survey. Financial analysis of farms with plant age between 3 to 7 years, was carried out which estimated the NPV (12% discount rate) NRs.4,48,672/ha, BCR 1.09, IRR 19% and the Pay-back period of 5 years, 5 months and 26 days. The value of BCR being greater than one, IRR higher than discount rate, positive NPV and short payback period indicated that commercial acid lime farming cultivating Sunkagati-1 variety is a profitable enterprise in Nepal. The unpaired t-test showed that there is no significant difference in productivity of Sunkagati-1 across eastern (Sunsari and Morang) and central (Chitwan and Nawalpur) regions; however, the price of acid lime in central region (NRs.102/kg) was significantly higher (1 % level of significance) than that of in eastern (NRs.93.8/kg). Moreover, this study revealed that porous border and unorganized market (I= 0.81) was the most severe problem followed by infestation of disease and insect pests (I= 0.76), inadequate quality seedlings (I= 0.68), inadequate technical knowledge and trainings (I=0.41) and inadequate storage and processing facilities (0.34). There is need of government intervention which would assure access to quality inputs & technology, marketing & value chain development and appropriate plant protection measures for the promotion of commercial acid lime farming in Nepal.
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 95-104
Open AccessEconomics of production of Sunkagati-1 variety of acid lime in Nepal
There is a huge opportunity for acid lime farming in Nepal. The demand is much higher than domestic production resulting voluminous import from abroad. This research aimed to assess the economics of production of Sunkagati-1 variety of acid lime in Nepal. Morang, Sunsari, Chitwan and Nawalparasi districts were selected for this study after consultation with the concerned agricultural experts and nursery entrepreneurs producing Sunkagati-1 saplings. The primary information was collected through the field survey whereas secondary information was obtained reviewing the relevant literatures. All total 70 farmers were selected as the samples through simple random sampling for the field survey. Financial analysis of farms with plant age between 3 to 7 years, was carried out which estimated the NPV (12% discount rate) NRs.4,48,672/ha, BCR 1.09, IRR 19% and the Pay-back period of 5 years, 5 months and 26 days. The value of BCR being greater than one, IRR higher than discount rate, positive NPV and short payback period indicated that commercial acid lime farming cultivating Sunkagati-1 variety is a profitable enterprise in Nepal. The unpaired t-test showed that there is no significant difference in productivity of Sunkagati-1 across eastern (Sunsari and Morang) and central (Chitwan and Nawalpur) regions; however, the price of acid lime in central region (NRs.102/kg) was significantly higher (1 % level of significance) than that of in eastern (NRs.93.8/kg). Moreover, this study revealed that porous border and unorganized market (I= 0.81) was the most severe problem followed by infestation of disease and insect pests (I= 0.76), inadequate quality seedlings (I= 0.68), inadequate technical knowledge and trainings (I=0.41) and inadequate storage and processing facilities (0.34). There is need of government intervention which would assure access to quality inputs & technology, marketing & value chain development and appropriate plant protection measures for the promotion of commercial acid lime farming in Nepal.
- Open Access
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 1-21
Reforming Agricultural Extension System in Nepal: What can we adopt from selected Agriculture Led Countries?
This paper compares the existing Nepalese agricultural extension system with other selected agriculture-led countries to explore the needs and opportunities of introducing an innovative agricultural extension system in Nepal. A review of various documents including journals, reports, and policy papers was carried out. The status of financial and human resources in agricultural extension of Nepal was assessed from 753 municipalities and 7 provinces through survey interviews and, additionally, expert consultations were done with 15 key personnel working in the field of agricultural extension in Nepal. We examined the major changes in the agricultural extension made before and after the federalization in Nepal and examined institutional arrangements and activities for agricultural sector governance after federalization. Further, three cases were selected from selected agriculture-led countries based on the working modality of research and extension either solely or jointly or in hybrid mode. The study found insufficient human resources for agriculture sector governance especially in provinces and municipalities with 37.4% and 29% of vacant positions, respectively. The recruited agriculture technicians were mostly engaged in administrative management and handout distribution rather than agricultural technology transfer. Most technicians were freshly recruited without any on-the-job training. The paper discussed about the agriculture extension approaches, service mechanisms and structure across the countries, and its relevancy in Nepal. Irrespective of operational modality of research and extension, technological advancement and application of Information Communication Technology plays an important role for the effectiveness of the extension services.
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 1-21
Open AccessReforming Agricultural Extension System in Nepal: What can we adopt from selected Agriculture Led Countries?
This paper compares the existing Nepalese agricultural extension system with other selected agriculture-led countries to explore the needs and opportunities of introducing an innovative agricultural extension system in Nepal. A review of various documents including journals, reports, and policy papers was carried out. The status of financial and human resources in agricultural extension of Nepal was assessed from 753 municipalities and 7 provinces through survey interviews and, additionally, expert consultations were done with 15 key personnel working in the field of agricultural extension in Nepal. We examined the major changes in the agricultural extension made before and after the federalization in Nepal and examined institutional arrangements and activities for agricultural sector governance after federalization. Further, three cases were selected from selected agriculture-led countries based on the working modality of research and extension either solely or jointly or in hybrid mode. The study found insufficient human resources for agriculture sector governance especially in provinces and municipalities with 37.4% and 29% of vacant positions, respectively. The recruited agriculture technicians were mostly engaged in administrative management and handout distribution rather than agricultural technology transfer. Most technicians were freshly recruited without any on-the-job training. The paper discussed about the agriculture extension approaches, service mechanisms and structure across the countries, and its relevancy in Nepal. Irrespective of operational modality of research and extension, technological advancement and application of Information Communication Technology plays an important role for the effectiveness of the extension services.
- Open Access
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 47-60
Analysis of technical efficiency and yield gap of potato farmers in Nepal
The productivity of potato production in Nepal is low compared to neighbouring countries because of a range of production constraints. Potatoes are an important staple crop and commodity for many communities throughout Nepal, thus imperative to improve their performance for the benefit of smallholder producers and consumers. This study aims to identify the technical efficiency and yield gap of potato farmers. Farm-level data from 300 potato farmers randomly selected from three districts of Nepal is used to estimate a stochastic frontier model. The model allows us to estimate the production elasticity coefficients of inputs, determinants of efficiency and technical efficiency of potato farmers. Results showed that among the production variables, seed rate and labour used were positive towards potato production, whereas seed source, extension contact, variety type, and irrigation used were negatively significant factors that influences the technical inefficiency. The mean technical efficiency value of potato farmers was 68%, and there was clear scope to increase potato production by 32% with the better use of available resources. The potential yield gap can be reduced if the adoption of proper agricultural practices such as the use of improved potato varieties with formal seed sources with recommended seed rates along with irrigation application. Such efforts from policymakers and other concerned stakeholders would help improve domestic production and reduce the dependency on potato imports.
- 31 December 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Journal of Nepal Agricultural Research Council
- p. 47-60
Open AccessAnalysis of technical efficiency and yield gap of potato farmers in Nepal
The productivity of potato production in Nepal is low compared to neighbouring countries because of a range of production constraints. Potatoes are an important staple crop and commodity for many communities throughout Nepal, thus imperative to improve their performance for the benefit of smallholder producers and consumers. This study aims to identify the technical efficiency and yield gap of potato farmers. Farm-level data from 300 potato farmers randomly selected from three districts of Nepal is used to estimate a stochastic frontier model. The model allows us to estimate the production elasticity coefficients of inputs, determinants of efficiency and technical efficiency of potato farmers. Results showed that among the production variables, seed rate and labour used were positive towards potato production, whereas seed source, extension contact, variety type, and irrigation used were negatively significant factors that influences the technical inefficiency. The mean technical efficiency value of potato farmers was 68%, and there was clear scope to increase potato production by 32% with the better use of available resources. The potential yield gap can be reduced if the adoption of proper agricultural practices such as the use of improved potato varieties with formal seed sources with recommended seed rates along with irrigation application. Such efforts from policymakers and other concerned stakeholders would help improve domestic production and reduce the dependency on potato imports.
- Open Access
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 95-117
Government Framework for Agriculture Service Delivery at the Local Level in Nepal
This paper examines the policy, institutional and legal aspects of agriculture service delivery (ASD) of local government in federal Nepal. The aim of this study is to recommend an appropriate framework for improving ASD unit efficiency in delivering agricultural services to citizens. The paper seeks to answer the question of whether the ASD unit of municipalities facilitates a local government framework while discharging their agriculture services to the citizens. To achieve this, both primary and secondary data were used. Primary data were collected through structured interviews of agriculture service takers using stratified random sampling and were accompanied by participant observations, FGDs and KIIs. Secondary data were obtained from government documents. A convergent parallel mix method research design was adopted, which implied abductive reasoning with pragmatist research philosophy. The study found that despite poor facilities and structures at the local level, the client experienced extended agricultural service delivery. Local governments are undergoing a transition in harmonizing institutional and legal policies, as evidenced by the differences in service delivery and expertise. The study identified three areas of demand from people with local authorities viz; infrastructure for basic services, quality extension from professional experts, and prioritization of the agriculture sector. Based on the findings, an enhanced ASD framework at the local level is recommended to meet the quality service needs of diversified clients. In this regard, enhanced municipal capacity is crucial.
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 95-117
Open AccessGovernment Framework for Agriculture Service Delivery at the Local Level in Nepal
This paper examines the policy, institutional and legal aspects of agriculture service delivery (ASD) of local government in federal Nepal. The aim of this study is to recommend an appropriate framework for improving ASD unit efficiency in delivering agricultural services to citizens. The paper seeks to answer the question of whether the ASD unit of municipalities facilitates a local government framework while discharging their agriculture services to the citizens. To achieve this, both primary and secondary data were used. Primary data were collected through structured interviews of agriculture service takers using stratified random sampling and were accompanied by participant observations, FGDs and KIIs. Secondary data were obtained from government documents. A convergent parallel mix method research design was adopted, which implied abductive reasoning with pragmatist research philosophy. The study found that despite poor facilities and structures at the local level, the client experienced extended agricultural service delivery. Local governments are undergoing a transition in harmonizing institutional and legal policies, as evidenced by the differences in service delivery and expertise. The study identified three areas of demand from people with local authorities viz; infrastructure for basic services, quality extension from professional experts, and prioritization of the agriculture sector. Based on the findings, an enhanced ASD framework at the local level is recommended to meet the quality service needs of diversified clients. In this regard, enhanced municipal capacity is crucial.
- Open Access
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 79-94
Public Private Cooperative Partnerships for Scaling Commercial Maize Production In Nepal: Linking Innovations With Policy
The Agriculture Development Strategy of the Government of Nepal (2015-2035) has identified maize as one of the key commodities for commercialization. Maize constitutes at least 50% of the total ingredients in poultry feed, with approximately 3,000 tons of poultry feed consumed daily in Nepal. However, while the demand for feed is increasing at about 10.0% per annum, maize production is only growing at 2.5% per annum. The low productivity with inferior grain quality and a lack of value chain coordination mechanisms starting from inputs (seeds) to output (grains) have hindered the commercialization of the domestic maize sector. Because of the inefficient market mechanism and competitive market structure, farmers are not able to pursue commercial maize production. To address this issue, action research on the value chain was conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), focusing mainly on Sudurpaschim and Lumbini provinces, to implement the maize commercialization model (MCM) between 2020 and 2022. Results demonstrate that public-private partnership approach can increase maize production, improve farm gate prices and farmers’ incomes, improve value chain coordination; improve access to services to farmers and enhance information flow among stakeholders. The study recommends that policies aimed to streamline commercial maize production should adopt a value chain approach, with a focus on chain upgrading and governance and promote coordination among actors to scale up commercial maize production throughout the maize-growing areas of Nepal.
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 79-94
Open AccessPublic Private Cooperative Partnerships for Scaling Commercial Maize Production In Nepal: Linking Innovations With Policy
The Agriculture Development Strategy of the Government of Nepal (2015-2035) has identified maize as one of the key commodities for commercialization. Maize constitutes at least 50% of the total ingredients in poultry feed, with approximately 3,000 tons of poultry feed consumed daily in Nepal. However, while the demand for feed is increasing at about 10.0% per annum, maize production is only growing at 2.5% per annum. The low productivity with inferior grain quality and a lack of value chain coordination mechanisms starting from inputs (seeds) to output (grains) have hindered the commercialization of the domestic maize sector. Because of the inefficient market mechanism and competitive market structure, farmers are not able to pursue commercial maize production. To address this issue, action research on the value chain was conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), focusing mainly on Sudurpaschim and Lumbini provinces, to implement the maize commercialization model (MCM) between 2020 and 2022. Results demonstrate that public-private partnership approach can increase maize production, improve farm gate prices and farmers’ incomes, improve value chain coordination; improve access to services to farmers and enhance information flow among stakeholders. The study recommends that policies aimed to streamline commercial maize production should adopt a value chain approach, with a focus on chain upgrading and governance and promote coordination among actors to scale up commercial maize production throughout the maize-growing areas of Nepal.
- Open Access
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 21-47
Policy Provisions and Implementation of Seed Technology Research, and Innovation in Nepal
Favorable policy provisions and their effective implementation are critical in promoting agricultural research innovation and technology development for ensuring food security and livelihood improvement of the farmers. This paper aims to (i) review current policy provisions made for research and innovations in the seed sector; (ii) assess its implementation status as envisaged in the policies and (iii) identify issues and gaps to make recommendations for potential policy solutions. The study employed a three-step process which included listing and review of the policies, followed by an assessment of their implementation status by developing a policy framework. The study showed that most policy documents have emphasized increasing production and productivity in agriculture, but have undermined the importance of research and technology to enhance agricultural productivity. In addition, current challenges such as nutritional security, natural resource management, and climate change have not been given adequate space in policy design. Very few policy documents have focused to develop climate-resilient varieties, breeds and technologies. Policy provisions for investment in agriculture research and innovation are inadequate and fragmented, despite their significant role in achieving a high rate of return in agriculture development. Analysis showed that investment, human resource development and institutional frameworks are weak, but the policy framework sounds relatively good. Therefore, it is urgent to manage human resources and investment as well as develop new provincial and local government agricultural policies and institutional frameworks aligned with federal policy considering the issues and challenges being faced in the present and what may happen in future. Increased investment and capacity development in plant breeding, modern technology, and seed system; facilitating public-private partnership and private sector to attract research investment; participatory and decentralized variety selection, release and recommendation; coordination mechanism for policy formulations and implementation; and provide incentives for research, release and promotion of domestically developed varieties are recommended to strengthen the variety and seed system innovations in Nepal.
- 29 March 2023
- Published by Policy Research Institute in Nepal Public Policy Review
- Vol. 3  (1) , 21-47
Open AccessPolicy Provisions and Implementation of Seed Technology Research, and Innovation in Nepal
Favorable policy provisions and their effective implementation are critical in promoting agricultural research innovation and technology development for ensuring food security and livelihood improvement of the farmers. This paper aims to (i) review current policy provisions made for research and innovations in the seed sector; (ii) assess its implementation status as envisaged in the policies and (iii) identify issues and gaps to make recommendations for potential policy solutions. The study employed a three-step process which included listing and review of the policies, followed by an assessment of their implementation status by developing a policy framework. The study showed that most policy documents have emphasized increasing production and productivity in agriculture, but have undermined the importance of research and technology to enhance agricultural productivity. In addition, current challenges such as nutritional security, natural resource management, and climate change have not been given adequate space in policy design. Very few policy documents have focused to develop climate-resilient varieties, breeds and technologies. Policy provisions for investment in agriculture research and innovation are inadequate and fragmented, despite their significant role in achieving a high rate of return in agriculture development. Analysis showed that investment, human resource development and institutional frameworks are weak, but the policy framework sounds relatively good. Therefore, it is urgent to manage human resources and investment as well as develop new provincial and local government agricultural policies and institutional frameworks aligned with federal policy considering the issues and challenges being faced in the present and what may happen in future. Increased investment and capacity development in plant breeding, modern technology, and seed system; facilitating public-private partnership and private sector to attract research investment; participatory and decentralized variety selection, release and recommendation; coordination mechanism for policy formulations and implementation; and provide incentives for research, release and promotion of domestically developed varieties are recommended to strengthen the variety and seed system innovations in Nepal.
- Open Access
- 1 February 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Nepal Agriculture Research Journal
- Vol. 15  (1) , 163-180
Rice demand and production projections for 2050: Opportunities for achieving self-sufficiency in Nepal
Rice is a major food, contributing 67% of cereal consumption in Nepal. It is playing a substantial role in food and nutritional security. Rice production is not sufficient to meet domestic consumption, so its import has been increasing. This study aims to explore whether Nepal can be self-sufficient in rice production in the current context of increasing rice demand and changing climate. We assessed the degree to which Nepal can be self-sufficient in rice production by the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, evaluating 12 different scenarios of demand driven by production, population growth, income, and climate change effect. We used compound growth rate estimation for analyzing the growth of rice production and population growth over time. Auto-regressive regression model was used to analyze the relationship of rice import and demand with domestic production, income, and population. A significant (p=0.000) positive impact of income on the import of rice was estimated, whereas significantly (p=0.000) higher impact of production on demand was estimated compared to income. Based on current rice productivity growth of 1.47% and population growth of 1.3% per year over three decades, the country will not achieve self-sufficiency until 2050.The situation would be further worsened in climate change scenarios. However, integrating the population growth rate of the last decade (0.57% per annum) with two productivity growth rate scenarios (current and (ii) 5% annual increment), the country can be self-sufficient by 2040. Based on different scenarios, the estimated demand can be met by increasing current productivity by at least 27–43% by 2030 and 42–85% by 2050. The study identified major gaps and opportunities in the rice production systems of Nepal and provided evidence-based solutions to meet the future demands in the context of increasing population and income, declining land availability, and high vulnerability to climate change.
- 1 February 2023
- Published by Nepal Journals Online (JOL) in Nepal Agriculture Research Journal
- Vol. 15  (1) , 163-180
Open AccessRice demand and production projections for 2050: Opportunities for achieving self-sufficiency in Nepal
Rice is a major food, contributing 67% of cereal consumption in Nepal. It is playing a substantial role in food and nutritional security. Rice production is not sufficient to meet domestic consumption, so its import has been increasing. This study aims to explore whether Nepal can be self-sufficient in rice production in the current context of increasing rice demand and changing climate. We assessed the degree to which Nepal can be self-sufficient in rice production by the years 2030, 2040, and 2050, evaluating 12 different scenarios of demand driven by production, population growth, income, and climate change effect. We used compound growth rate estimation for analyzing the growth of rice production and population growth over time. Auto-regressive regression model was used to analyze the relationship of rice import and demand with domestic production, income, and population. A significant (p=0.000) positive impact of income on the import of rice was estimated, whereas significantly (p=0.000) higher impact of production on demand was estimated compared to income. Based on current rice productivity growth of 1.47% and population growth of 1.3% per year over three decades, the country will not achieve self-sufficiency until 2050.The situation would be further worsened in climate change scenarios. However, integrating the population growth rate of the last decade (0.57% per annum) with two productivity growth rate scenarios (current and (ii) 5% annual increment), the country can be self-sufficient by 2040. Based on different scenarios, the estimated demand can be met by increasing current productivity by at least 27–43% by 2030 and 42–85% by 2050. The study identified major gaps and opportunities in the rice production systems of Nepal and provided evidence-based solutions to meet the future demands in the context of increasing population and income, declining land availability, and high vulnerability to climate change.