Lan Wang-Erlandsson

Human pressures at the local scale are driving transgressions of a planetary safe operating space, compromising global and regional stability and resilience. Tools are needed to help organizations assess their environmental performance by bridging local pressures to planetary impacts. The Earth System Impact (ESI) metric prototype was developed in 2021 to enable evaluations of an organization’s systemic impacts relative to established planetary boundaries translated to the sub-global scale. This metric incorporates key interactions between climate change, land cover change and freshwater flows, distinguishes impacts by region, and accounts for current states of climate, land cover and surface freshwater. Here, we present innovations to the ESI approach to enhance the tool’s utility. Simulation data needed for score construction is updated, and the spatial scope is broadened to include dominantly barren land types which were excluded in the prototype. We draw from the latest assessments of safe and just planetary operating spaces to define regional boundaries for land and water. For water, specifically, we account for both upper and lower bounds in flow alteration while the prototype had only recognized the latter. We calculate two sets of metrics: amplification factors, which measure the extent to which impacts are magnified in the Earth system; and location-specific Carbon, Land and Water ESI coefficients which represent the systemic impact of reference pressures in the form of carbon emissions, land cover change and water withdrawal. Overall, amplification factors increased compared to the prototype. The effects of deforestation on the Earth system were doubled to tripled. Most barren land experienced no net amplification except in Australia and Africa (~39% and 65%, respectively) where surface water scarcity is aggravated. The final ESI coefficients were higher in smaller areas (e.g. C3 grass ecosystems in Africa), indicative of the sensitivity of smaller ecosystems to pressures, and in areas where transgressions are coupled with high amplification.

Human pressures at the local scale are driving transgressions of a planetary safe operating space, compromising global and regional stability and resilience. Tools are needed to help organizations assess their environmental performance by bridging local pressures to planetary impacts. The Earth System Impact (ESI) metric prototype was developed in 2021 to enable evaluations of an organization’s systemic impacts relative to established planetary boundaries translated to the sub-global scale. This metric incorporates key interactions between climate change, land cover change and freshwater flows, distinguishes impacts by region, and accounts for current states of climate, land cover and surface freshwater. Here, we present innovations to the ESI approach to enhance the tool’s utility. Simulation data needed for score construction is updated, and the spatial scope is broadened to include dominantly barren land types which were excluded in the prototype. We draw from the latest assessments of safe and just planetary operating spaces to define regional boundaries for land and water. For water, specifically, we account for both upper and lower bounds in flow alteration while the prototype had only recognized the latter. We calculate two sets of metrics: amplification factors, which measure the extent to which impacts are magnified in the Earth system; and location-specific Carbon, Land and Water ESI coefficients which represent the systemic impact of reference pressures in the form of carbon emissions, land cover change and water withdrawal. Overall, amplification factors increased compared to the prototype. The effects of deforestation on the Earth system were doubled to tripled. Most barren land experienced no net amplification except in Australia and Africa (~39% and 65%, respectively) where surface water scarcity is aggravated. The final ESI coefficients were higher in smaller areas (e.g. C3 grass ecosystems in Africa), indicative of the sensitivity of smaller ecosystems to pressures, and in areas where transgressions are coupled with high amplification.

Human pressures at the local scale are driving transgressions of a planetary safe operating space, compromising global and regional stability and resilience. Tools are needed to help organizations assess their environmental performance by bridging local pressures to planetary impacts. The Earth System Impact (ESI) metric prototype was developed in 2021 to enable evaluations of an organization’s systemic impacts relative to established planetary boundaries translated to the sub-global scale. This metric incorporates key interactions between climate change, land cover change and freshwater flows, distinguishes impacts by region, and accounts for current states of climate, land cover and surface freshwater. Here, we present innovations to the ESI approach to enhance the tool’s utility. Simulation data needed for score construction is updated, and the spatial scope is broadened to include dominantly barren land types which were excluded in the prototype. We draw from the latest assessments of safe and just planetary operating spaces to define regional boundaries for land and water. For water, specifically, we account for both upper and lower bounds in flow alteration while the prototype had only recognized the latter. We calculate two sets of metrics: amplification factors, which measure the extent to which impacts are magnified in the Earth system; and location-specific Carbon, Land and Water ESI coefficients which represent the systemic impact of reference pressures in the form of carbon emissions, land cover change and water withdrawal. Overall, amplification factors increased compared to the prototype. The effects of deforestation on the Earth system were doubled to tripled. Most barren land experienced no net amplification except in Australia and Africa (~39% and 65%, respectively) where surface water scarcity is aggravated. The final ESI coefficients were higher in smaller areas (e.g. C3 grass ecosystems in Africa), indicative of the sensitivity of smaller ecosystems to pressures, and in areas where transgressions are coupled with high amplification.

The notion of people and nature as intertwined and embedded in the biosphere is gaining traction in contemporary scientific discourses. But what does it mean for a human being to be intertwined? Here, we explore this question through two lenses: looking at the human body as an open living system in continuous exchange with the chemical elements on Earth; and looking across the biosphere, at the intricate functioning of the web of life in mediating these exchanges. The first lens focuses on relationships between chemical elements and life processes within us humans, relationships that are critical for our bodies to operate and function. We then expand the perspective to show how microorganisms, fungi, plants, and animals in ecosystems shape and mediate the elemental flows through the air, water, and food that our bodies require for survival. The two lenses highlight that humans have evolved as part of, and remain integrated with, these complex and dynamic life–element interdependencies, spanning all scales and domains across the biosphere. In the Anthropocene, humans remain as bodily dependent on life-mediated elemental cycles as ever, irrespective of culture, economic development, or technological advances. This inseparability reflects the core reality of existing in the biosphere, with implications for how to approach and understand human–environment relations and confront the challenges of the Anthropocene. It further implies that biosphere stewardship is not only a cognitive or ethical orientation, but also an embodied practice: one that involves learning about, caring for, and enhancing the living relations that mobilise, regenerate, and circulate life-sustaining elements.

The rainforests of South America and Africa are considerably reliant on rainfall supplied by evaporation from the rainforests themselves through moisture recycling. Thus, rainforest loss in these areas can reduce evaporation as well as subsequent rainfall in the wider forested region. During dry periods, a dampened water cycle may potentially aggravate rainforest water stress. However, few studies have investigated dry‐period moisture recycling statistics within rainforests over longer records and consistently compared the rainforest moisture recycling in both continents. Here, we analyze dry‐season anomalies of moisture recycling for mean‐years and dry‐years, in the South‐American (Amazon) and African (Congo) rainforests over the years 1980–2023. We find that dry‐season rainfall reliance on rainforest moisture increases slightly, but statistically significantly, by 5% (from a mean annual of 21% to 22%) in the Amazon and up to 12% (from 24% to 27%) in the Congo. At the same time, a lower fraction of rainforest evaporation stays within the rainforest during the dry season: 21% less from the Amazon (from 41% to 32%) and 22% less from the Congo rainforest (from 32% to 25%), which further decreases with increasing dryness. In response, areas downwind of the rainforests gain a higher dependency on rainforest moisture during dry seasons, amplified during dry years. For example, rainforest‐sourced rainfall in Ecuador increases from annually to in the dry season. The findings highlight the critical role of rainforests in maintaining rainfall during periods when water is already scarce.

Precipitation partitioning into blue (runoff) and green water (transpiration) flows is a fundamental hydroecological process shaping freshwater availability across vegetated and hydrologically active land areas. This partitioning is determined by interactions among climatic conditions, land surface characteristics, and vegetation dynamics, which change with rising temperatures and CO₂ concentrations. Yet, future global shifts in blue–green water partitioning, their controlling factors, and their broader implications remain uncertain. We address this knowledge gap using Earth system model simulations and define the Blue–Green Water Share (BGWS) metric to quantify changes in the relative partitioning of precipitation into runoff and transpiration. Here, we show that projected BGWS changes are spatially heterogeneous rather than dominated by a uniform global shift. Increases in extreme five-day precipitation are most strongly associated with these changes, favouring larger blue water shares. This effect is independent of mean precipitation increases and occurs under both drying and wetting conditions. Additionally, increases in leaf area index tend to favour larger green water shares and counteract the blueward influence of stronger precipitation extremes. Our results provide a process-based perspective on projected blue–green water partitioning and its hydroecological implications.

Atmospheric moisture flows transport ~26,000 km ³ of water across national boundaries annually, an order of magnitude larger than the ~1,700 km ³ of virtual water embedded in globally traded crop commodities. These flows are interrelated: atmospheric moisture sustains the agricultural production (and water use) that drives virtual water trade (VWT). However, the combined water dependencies from their interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we couple a global country-to-country atmospheric moisture network with a VWT network to assess their joint interactions across moisture sources, mediating countries, and trade sinks. We find that lower-income countries tend to act as net moisture sources while higher-income nations are net sinks of virtual water (r=0.42, p<0.001). A small set of countries, notably Argentina, the USA, and Ukraine, disproportionately link atmospheric moisture fluxes to agricultural trade, and their disruption would propagate losses across the same import-dependent countries. These coupled dependencies are increasingly critical for water resilience as climate change destabises the hydrological cycle and geopolitical tensions render global supply chains more fragile.

Monitoring global food crop richness is essential for detecting diversity loss in agricultural systems. Yet the dataset most widely used for such assessments (FAOSTAT) was not designed to be an exhaustive survey of crop diversity, and its gaps and biases can distort country rankings and diversity trends. Here, we classify countries by how well FAOSTAT reflects their potential food crop richness. Countries with the highest crop diversity potential and most acute food security challenges show the largest discrepancies between their potential and reported crop richness, reflecting limited statistical infrastructure and a greater underrepresentation of their actual crop diversity in global statistics. We further identify chronically underreported food crop items — predominantly minor cereal crops, tubers and roots, and legumes — that are least visible in global statistics precisely where they are most critical for food security and climate change adaptation. Our country and crop classifications provide a practical tool for future assessments to explicitly account for these gaps and biases when analyzing or interpreting FAOSTAT-derived crop diversity trends and patterns, and a roadmap for directing monitoring investment where it is needed most.