Wenlan Qian

We utilize the introduction of mobile payment technology by the largest bank in Singapore in 2017 to study how mobile payment technology reshapes economic activities and stimulates business creation. After the introduction, business-to-consumer industries witnessed 18.3% more business creation relative to business-to-business industries, with the effect driven by small firms and more pronounced among industries with higher cash handling costs. Underlying this pattern is consumers’ strong adoption of mobile payment and a reduction in ATM cash withdrawals during the post-shock period. The reduced transaction cost also increases consumers’ spending capacity, which justifies the business growth. Interestingly, part of the increased consumer demand is credit card spending. The pattern of changes is consistent with the bank’s adjustment to the technological change: it reduces ATMs and allows more credit card openings and higher credit limits. This paper was accepted by Camelia Kuhnen, finance. Funding: Y. Ren received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72303210], the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant LQ24G010001], and the major project of the National Social Science Fund of China [Grant 24&ZD088]. S. Agarwal acknowledges the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72495154]. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03947 .

Based on a representative sample of consumer financial transaction data, this paper studies the consumption and savings response to a 2015 permanent increase in the marginal income tax of the high-income taxpayers. Using difference-in-differences regressions, controlling for individual and time fixed effects, we show robust results that the affected consumers experienced little change in their spending. The pattern is prevalent across consumer demographics and is found even among consumers who are sophisticated, have high levels of debt, or register little income changes. Furthermore, the tax increase financed fiscal redistribution leads to a long-lasting increase in the consumption of the lower-income population. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Funding: The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from Social Science Research Thematic Grant in Singapore [Future-Proofing Singapore: An Economic Approach MOE2019-SSRTG-024]. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4823 .

Using transaction-level credit-card spending from a large U.S. financial institution, we show that disaggregated sales provide accurate and persistent signals of customer demand relevant to a firm’s stock pricing. After controlling for earnings and sales surprises, one interquintile increase in the adjusted customer spending during a firm’s fiscal quarter leads to a 1.5 percentage point increase in the 60-day post–earnings announcement cumulative abnormal return. The predictability concentrates in consumer-oriented firms, especially those relying more on indirect sales distribution channels. We also find a stronger return response to spending from high-FICO-score, high-liquidity, and loyal customers. The transmission speed of disaggregated sales information is slower than that of the earnings information, and small firms or firms far from their end customers exhibit a more delayed price response. Finally, the return implications of adjusted customer spending extend to firms along the production chain. This paper was accepted by Haoxiang Zhu, finance.

Thy Neighbor's Misfortune: Peer Effect on Consumption by Sumit Agarwal, Wenlan Qian and Xin Zou. Published in volume 13, issue 2, pages 1-25 of American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2021, Using a large, representative sample of credit and debit card transactions in Singapore, thi...

This paper exploits an administrative regulation in Singapore that allows individuals to withdraw between 10% and 30% of their pension savings at age 55. We find a large and highly significant increase in individuals’ bank account balances within the first month of turning 55, which declines by about a third by the end of 12 months. Consumers use the increase in disposable income to pay down credit card debt. Liquidity constrained individuals are significantly more likely to increase their spending upon turning 55 than unconstrained individuals—nonetheless, the spending response of constrained individuals is concentrated on nondurable and nonvisible goods rather than visible goods. We also provide evidence that withdrawal behavior is responsive to the prices of durable goods such as cars. Consumers appear willing to forego much higher interest rates in their retirement accounts by leaving a sizeable portion of their withdrawn savings in a low-interest accruing bank account for at least a year after withdrawal. We show that, for some consumers, part of this behavior may be due to the desire to invest in the property market when housing returns are high. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

We document a substantial customer complaint gap between stock and mutual financial firms. To assess whether this 21% per year complaint gap stems from complaint-prone customers in stock insurers, we examine state-adjudicated complaint success. To further delineate between customer selection or treatment explanations, we exploit within insurer complaints around random claims (natural disasters) and attention shocks (media scrutiny). Further tests reveal the complaint gap widens with greater competition, near insolvency thresholds, and with more price regulation. Overall, the results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that mutual financial firms exhibit low customer satisfaction, suggesting customers find this a beneficial organizational structure.

This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short‐term speculation can be identified. In the cross‐section of housing projects, a 10‐percentage‐point increase in trading activity following a strong short‐run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short‐term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short‐term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.