Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer

Mining in Europe is regulated by national mining, environmental and labor and other laws. Additionally, there are also general frameworks within which a mine operates or can operate in Europe: the challenges of sustainable development, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, the challenges of an operation under the ESG guidelines (environmental, social and governance), and the recently enacted Critical Raw Materials Act of the EU with the target to produce 10% of the 17 defined strategic raw materials or raw material specifications within the EU by 2030. There is hardly a region in Europe where a newly planned mine does not encounter civil resistance. The reasons may be based on facts, but often they are emotional. Today, mining in Europe has to address mainly three issues: 1.) constraining the impact of the mining footprint to a minimum, 2.) enhancing the efficiency of the extraction of mineral commodities, 3.) trying to exploit and market everything along the entire mining process, including waste materials, water derived from the mine, thermal energy from the mine, and the underground space for other uses, e.g. storage. Two mines in Europe, which can be considered role models, are described: the tungsten mine Mittersill in Austria and the fluorite-barite mine Wolfach in the Black Forest in Germany.

This paper examines the need for innovation in phosphorus fertilizer production. An important area requiring action is the use of sulfuric acid in the wet chemical process (WCP), which is the dominant process in phosphate fertilizer production. About 50 % of the sulfuric acid produced worldwide is used for fertilizers, and ~95 % of the world's fertilizers are based on sulfuric acid. The latter is almost exclusively a by‐product of gas and oil production, so the production of conventional P fertilizer is largely dependent on the availability of oil and gas. In addition to rendering P fertilizer production independent of fossil raw materials, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, phosphogypsum production and water consumption should also be considered. With the example of the PARFORCE process and the Improved Hard Process (IHP), new non‐sulfuric acid‐based alternatives are discussed with respect to overcoming the drawbacks of the classical WCP by being completely independent of fossil sources, working with renewable energies as the sole energy source, and the option of using seawater instead of fresh water. These new processes adhere to the principles of climate neutrality, zero waste production, low CO₂ footprint, water conservation, renewable energy use, and energy and resource efficiency. This demonstrates what sustainable innovation can look like from a production perspective. The discussion will focus on whether current incentives are sufficient to realize the sustainability innovations discussed.

Inspired by a paper by Teseletso and Adachi (Miner Econ 8(10):21, 2021), the hypothesis regarding the declining grade of mined copper ore and its possible use as a guide to the future of ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) is tested. As a time axis, cumulative production is taken. Grades can be either grade of cumulative tonnage or annual production grade. Correlation can be linear (grade and tonnage) or semi-logarithmic (grade linear, tonnage logarithmic). We first show that the assumption that the highest correlation is the best guide to the future may be a fallacy. This is the linear correlation between grades of cumulative tonnage and cumulative tonnages since 1959, i.e., 85% of all copper mined historically with a near-perfect correlation approaching one (R² = 0.97). This leads to implausibly low results of the URR, clearly demonstrating that this trend must shift in the future. Moreover, Teseletso and Adachi’s (Miner Econ 8(10):21, 2021) approach using a linear or semi-logarithmic correlation between annual grades with cumulative production leads to erroneous results. Here, the later the calculation of the correlation begins, the lower the extrapolated tonnages are at predetermined, postulated ultimate cutoff grades. This contradicts the accepted knowledge that with lower grades, the resource base is broadened—not narrowed. The only reasonable finding results from the correlation between linear grades of cumulative production with logarithmic cumulative production, i.e., the Lasky relationship, indicating a URR of 7.5 GT Cu, of which 6.7 GT remain to be mined, which is equivalent of close to 325 years of present production. The trend towards declining Cu grades with constant real Cu prices shows the potential for creative solutions for other metal as well.

The challenge to maximize resource efficiency requires the optimal use of all products leaving a mine—not only ore but also waste products—and calls for contributions from and cooperation with every discipline involved as efficiently as possible. These interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary interactions between practitioners and scientists are also an act of learning and take time. They should be initiated at the start of the exploration phase and continue to the postmining stage. This paper focuses on the interactions of geologists and mining engineers, with examples in the exploration phase (preliminary economic evaluations at milestones using the rule of thumb), the feasibility and mine-design stage (bulk testing, test mining, mine design to minimize dilution and losses), the mining stage (grade control, selective mining, especially in smaller-scale deposit mining, and further exploration to extend a mine’s life), waste management during the lifecycle of a mine, and the postmining closure and land-use stage. An additional section addresses the beneficial cooperation in helping small-scale and artisanal miners in developing nations to meet obligations under new laws in industrialized nations regarding due diligence in supply chains and, thereby, support them in retaining their markets and incomes.

From the vantage point of more than 50 years’ work in the raw material field, as well as working in the private sector, in the German federal ministry of economics, at a geological survey, and engaged in teaching and supervising research at a university, I draw a number of conclusions about the following aspects of the fields: development of long-term prices, the long-term supply situation, especially the expectation of an imminent peaking of supply, the frequent and mistaken prediction of shortfalls in supply, our understanding of reserves and resources, and the cyclic nature of success in exploration. I am solely dealing with geological aspects, not taking into account political inferences and supply disruptions. This is followed by an attempt to look into the future of raw materials demand within the framework of the accelerating green energy transition. These conclusions are: Conclusion 1: When two amplifying effects overlap, long-term price trends can be broken. Conclusion 2: All growth rates flatten eventually. Never extrapolate high growth rates too far! However, growth rates are learning curves that move in waves and can steepen again. In general, the higher the production the lower the growth rates, even in exceptional cases. Conclusion 3: It is unclear, whether we have already reached the stage when growth rates of the major metals have flattened, but sooner or later it will come. Conclusion 4: Sooner or later we shall see demand peaking for primary metals of all commodities (in contrast to peak supply) because the share of secondary metals will grow and the consumption per capita reaches saturation levels. Conclusion 5: The reserve/ production ratio (R/P-ratio) is only a snapshot of a dynamically evolving reserve/resources system. The learning effects during exploration so far are in step with ever-increasing consumption. Serious limits to reserves are nowhere to be seen. Conclusion 6: Rapid changes in production rates may be accompanied by significant decreases in R/P-ratios and it would appear justified to suspect that advances in exploration cannot always keep pace with consumption. However, as long as the R/P-ratios do not fall below 50 for stratabound deposits and 25 for other deposits and exploration activities continue apace as normal there is no reason to worry about future supply bottlenecks. Conclusion 7: The R/P-ratios are useless as indicators for lifetime; however, they are helpful as early warning indicators for looming problems of supply and for indicating the need for boosting exploration. Conclusion 8: Exploration discoveries show episodic behaviour. Therefore it is difficult to extrapolate into the future. So far all pessimistic forecasts have been proven wrong by ingenious advances to detect new ore bodies to replace mined-out reserves. Conclusion 9: Supply shortages have been forecast frequently in the past. They never actually happened. The self-regulating feedback control cycle of mineral supply safeguards adequate supply over time. There is no reason to assume that this system of self-correcting forecasts will not work in the future.