Shih-Sian Yang

In order to investigate possible ionospheric anomalies before a magnitude 7.6 earthquake (EQ) in the Japanese Noto Peninsula on 1 January 2024, we used oblique ionosonde data sounding at Wakkanai and Yamagawa with an assumed one-hop reflection point (ORP) only 169 km away from the EQ epicenter, which was not covered by vertical ionosonde observation. The NmF2 at ORP was analyzed. We found a long-lasting negative anomaly from the preceding day to the EQ occurrence, which was 3.37 standard deviations below the previous 30-day mean. We also found a positive anomaly 2 days before the EQ. In addition, we observed a new type of NmF2 anomaly around midday, which has not yet been reported in the literature. The midday NmF2 was anomalous for 10, 8 days, and a few hours before the EQ, implying possible pre-seismic modifications of the mesospheric meridional neutral wind. On the other hand, we also found NmF2 anomalies 3 and 4 days before a major aftershock on 9 January, revealing that the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) remained active, as seismic activity continued some days after the EQ mainshock. Since both positive and negative anomalies were observed before the EQ, pre-seismic atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity is the main agent driving LAIC processes. The present study not only reports pre-seismic anomalies before the 2024 Noto Peninsula EQ but also demonstrates the utility of oblique ionosondes on the ionospheric monitoring over Japan, especially for pre-seismic studies.

• The first attempt of studying preseismic ionospheric anomalies using oblique ionosonde NmF2 data. • Preseismic anomalies in NmF2 were observed 8, 7, 2, and 1 days before the earthquake, as well as on the earthquake day. • Preseismic atmospheric gravity wave activity is the main agent of the lithosphereatmosphere-ionosphere coupling.

A series of multi-parameter, multi-layer observations was conducted to study possible electromagnetic precursors associated with the M 6.7 earthquake that struck Iburi, Hokkaido, Japan, at 18:07:59 UT on 5 September 2018. The most significant observation is seismogenic lower-ionospheric perturbations in the propagation anomalies of sub-ionospheric VLF/LF signals recorded in Japan and Russia. Other substantial observations include the GIM-TEC irregularities, the intensification of stratospheric atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs), and the satellite and ground monitoring of air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), and surface latent heat flux (SLHF). We have found that there were very remarkable VLF/LF anomalies indicative of lower-ionospheric perturbations observed on 4 and 5 September just before the EQ date and even after it from the observations in Japan and Russia. In particular, the anomaly was detected for a particular propagation path from the JJY transmitter (Fukushima) to a VLF station at Wakkanai one day before the EQ, i.e., on 4 September, and is objectively confirmed by machine/deep learning analysis. An anomaly in TEC occurred only on 5 September, but it is unclear whether it is related to a pre-EQ effect or a minor geomagnetic storm. We attempted to determine whether any seismo-related atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity occurred in the stratosphere. Although numerous anomalies were detected, they are most likely associated with convective weather phenomena, including a typhoon. Finally, the Earth’s surface parameters based on satellite monitoring seem to indicate some anomalies from 29 August to 3, 4, and 5 September, a few days prior to EQ data, but the ground-based observation close to the EQ epicenter has indicated a clear T/RH and ACP on 2 September with fair weather, but no significant data on subsequent days because of severe meteorological activities. By integrating multi-layer observations, the LAIC (lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling) process for the Hokkaido earthquake appears to follow a slow diffusion-type channel, where ionospheric perturbations arise a few days after ground thermal anomalies. This study also provides integrated evidence linking concurrent lower-ionospheric, atmospheric, and surface thermal anomalies, emphasizing the diagnostic value of such multi-parameter observations in understanding EQ-associated precursor signatures.

Geophysical processes within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) play important roles in the energy, momentum, and particle exchanges in the lower atmosphere. The height of the ABL top (ABL height; ABLH) decides the depth of these ABL processes. To better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of the ABLH, the present study analyzed 45 years of global ABLH data retrieved from ERA5, in which the ABLH was defined using the bulk Richardson number, and the climatology of the ABLH was investigated. Further, the relationship between the ABLH and meteorological parameters was examined. High near-surface air temperature represents fair weather conditions that favor the ABL evolution, causing a high ABLH. In contrast, high precipitation represents bad weather conditions that restrain the ABL evolution, causing a low ABLH. The present study also studied the effects of synoptic weather systems, ocean–atmosphere interactions, terrains, and monsoon systems on the ABLH. Multiple controlling factors, including synoptic systems, cold ocean currents, terrain, and monsoons, influence the weather conditions and the complicated spatio-temporal distribution of the ABLH.

Multi-parameter observations, powerful for the study of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC), have been performed for a recent Tokyo earthquake (EQ) with a moderate magnitude (M = 5.9) and rather larger depth (~70 km) on 7 October 2021, in the hope of predicting the next Kanto (Tokyo) huge EQ, such as the 1923 Great Kanto EQ (with a magnitude greater than 7). Various possible precursors have been searched during the two-month period of 1 September to 31 October 2021, based on different kinds of data sets: (i) ULF (ultra-low frequency) magnetic data from Kakioka, Japan, (ii) ULF/ELF (extremely low frequency) magnetic field data from the Chubu University network, (iii) meteorological data (temperature and humidity) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), (iv) AGW (atmospheric gravity wave) ERA5 data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), (v) subionospheric VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) data from Russia and Japan, (vi) ionosonde Japanese data, and (vii) GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC (total electron content) data. After extensive analyses of all of the above data, we have found that there are a few obvious precursors: (i) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere, and (ii) lower ionospheric perturbations (with two independent tools from the ULF depression and subionospheric VLF anomaly) which took place just two days before the EQ. Further, ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation has been observed from approximately one week before the EQ until a few days after the EQ, which seems to be approximately synchronous in time to the anomalous variation in meteorological parameters (a combination of temperature and humidity, atmospheric chemical potential). On the other hand, there have been no clear anomalies detected in the stratospheric AGW activity, and in the NmF2 and TEC data for the upper F region ionosphere. So, it seems that the lithospheric origin is not strong enough to perturb the upper F region. Finally, we discuss the possible hypothesis for the LAIC process, and we can conclude that the AGW hypothesis might be ruled out, but other possible channels such as the chemical channel (radon emanation) and the associated effects might be in operation, at least, for this Tokyo EQ.

Atmospheric disturbances caused by seismic activity are a complex phenomenon. The Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) mechanism gives a detailed idea to understand these processes to study the possible impacts of a forthcoming earthquake. The atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) is one of the most accurate parameters for explaining such LAIC process, where seismogenic disturbances can be explained in terms of atmospheric waves caused by temperature changes. The key goal of this work is to study the perturbation in the potential energy associated with stratospheric AGW prior to many large earthquakes. We select seven large earthquakes having Richter scale magnitudes greater than seven ( ) in Japan (Tohoku and Kumamoto), Mexico (Chiapas), Nepal, and the Indian Ocean region, to study the intensification of AGW using the atmospheric temperature profile as recorded from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite. We observe a significant enhancement in the potential energy of the AGW ranging from 2 to 22 days prior to different earthquakes. We examine the conditions of geomagnetic disturbances, typhoons, and thunderstorms during our study and eliminate the possible contamination due to these events.

The authors would like to make the following corrections to this paper

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) effects with the use of multiparameter precursor observations for two successive Japanese earthquakes (EQs) (with a magnitude of around 7) in February and March 2021, respectively, considering a seemingly significant difference in seismological and geological hypocenter conditions for those EQs. The second March EQ is very similar to the famous 2011 Tohoku EQ in the sense that those EQs took place at the seabed of the subducting plate, while the first February EQ happened within the subducting plate, not at the seabed. Multiparameter observation is a powerful tool for the study of the LAIC process, and we studied the following observables over a 3-month period (January to March): (i) ULF data (lithospheric radiation and ULF depression phenomenon); (ii) ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation; (iii) atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere, extracted from satellite temperature data; (iv) subionospheric VLF/LF propagation data; and (v) GPS TECs (total electron contents). In contrast to our initial expectation of different responses of anomalies to the two EQs, we found no such conspicuous differences of electromagnetic anomalies between the two EQs, but showed quite similar anomaly responses for the two EQs. It is definite that atmospheric ULF/ELF radiation and ULF depression as lower ionospheric perturbation are most likely signatures of precursors to both EQs, and most importantly, all electromagnetic anomalies are concentrated in the period of about 1 week–9 days before the EQ to the EQ day. There seems to exist a chain of LAIC process (cause-and-effect relationship) for the first EQ, while all of the observed anomalies seem to occur nearly synchronously in time for the send EQ. Even though we tried to discuss possible LAIC channels, we cannot come to any definite conclusion about which coupling channel is plausible for each EQ.

Atmospheric gravity waves play a crucial role in affecting atmospheric circulation, energy transportation, thermal structure, and chemical composition. Using ERA5 temperature data, the present study investigates the tropospheric to the lower mesospheric gravity wave potential energy (E_P) over the equatorial region to understand the vertical coupling of the atmosphere. E_P is mainly controlled by two factors. The first is zonal wind through wave–mean flow interactions, and thus E_P has periodic variations that are correlated to the zonal wind oscillations and enhances around the altitudes of zero-wind shears where the zonal wind reverses. The second is the convections caused by atmospheric circulations and warm oceans, resulting in longitudinal variability in E_P. The lower stratospheric and the lower mesospheric E_P are negatively correlated. However, warm oceanic conditions can break this wave energy coupling and further enhance the lower mesospheric E_P.

In order to have further evidence of the atmospheric oscillation channel of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC), we have studied criticality in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) surface deformation as a possible agent for exciting atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) in the atmosphere and GNSS fluctuations in the frequency range of AGWs with the use of the natural time (NT) method. The target earthquake (EQ) is the 2016 Kumamoto EQ with its main shock on 15 April 2016 (M = 7.3, universal time). As the result of the application of the NT method to GNSS data, we found that for the one-day sampled GNSS deformation data and its fluctuations in two AGW bands of 20–100 and 100–300 min, we could detect a criticality in the period of 1–14 April, which was one day to two weeks before the EQ. These dates of criticalities are likely to overlap with the time periods of previous results on clear AGW activity in the stratosphere and on the lower ionospheric perturbation. Hence, we suggest that the surface deformation could be a possible candidate for exciting those AGWs in the stratosphere, leading to the lower ionospheric perturbation, which lends further support to the AGW hypothesis of the LAIC process.